 | 2003 Winston Cup Series | | | | | | | | | | | | |  | |
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All is not lost. Even if Earnhardt Jr. slides all the way back to sixth, it would still be a career high points finish. His best finish, eighth, came in 2001.
His season in 2003 has been more consistent than in year's past -- he's already spent 27 races in he top 10. His career high is 25, which came in 2001.
All the signs -- when it comes to Earnhardt Jr. -- are positive. His average starting spot this year, 11.8, is a career high. So is his laps completed percentage (98.7).
He should make a run for the title next year, but he'll have to avoid the mechanical trouble that hurt him at Daytona (bad alternator) and Michigan (brakes).
Newman has a real shot at finishing second in the standings.
Since the Pepsi 400, Ryan Newman has finished out of the top 10 only twice, and one of those was an 11th-place run at Indianapolis.
During that period, Newman has averaged 161.4 points per race. That number is astounding, especially when you consider that Matt Kenseth has averaged 142.7 points per race in 2003.
If Newman had somehow managed to average 161.4 points per race for the entire 31 races in 2003, he'd have a 579-point lead over Kenseth.
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| Ryan Newman leads the series in top five finishes (14). Credit: Autostock |
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Since the Pepsi 400, Newman has chopped off 387 points off Kenseth's lead.
Before all that math, you mentioned something about Newman finishing second in the points.
Oh yes. Got off track a little.
In the last six races, Newman has gotten back 164 points on Harvick, who has held second place for the last month.
Newman is only 64 points behind Harvick for second with five races to go. To secure second place, Newman only has to finish -- on average -- three spots better than Harvick in each of the five races.
Of course, Newman can make up a chunk of points if Harvick fails to finish a race, but it won't happen -- Harvick is working on a string of 13 straight races where he's finished on the lead lap.
What has Harvick's season been like?
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| Kevin Harvick has fewer 30th-or-worse finishes (1) than Matt Kenseth (2). Credit: Autostock |
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Harvick's remarkable comeback in the points proves that there is little wrong in the current points system.
Harvick was a whopping 539 points back after the first Michigan event, but since then, he's made up 272 points on Kenseth, even though Kenseth has just two finishes out of the top 15 in that period -- the same amount that Harvick has.
Harvick is one of only three drivers in the top 10 in the standings to finish better than he starts. He's qualified -- on average -- 18th this year, and he averages about a 12th-place finish.
Who are the other two?
Obviously, Kenseth is a notoriously bad qualifier -- he averages a 20th-place start, the same as Terry Labonte, which is the only other driver in the top 10 to finish better then he starts in 2003.
What does Kenseth need now to clinch the title?
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| Matt Kenseth has two top-10s in seven races at Martinsville. Credit: Autostock |
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Even though Kenseth slipped at Talladega and Kansas, Harvick hasn't exactly made life difficult for him. Since the Richmond run-in with Ricky Rudd, Harvick hasn't finished better than fourth.
Before the run-in with Rudd, Harvick finished better than fourth no fewer than seven times.
Kenseth has 53 points per race to work with. If Harvick averages a ninth-place finish from here on out, then Kenseth only needs to average a 24th-place finish.
Just for kicks, let's say Kenseth's motor explodes on Lap 1 in each of the next five races. In that morbid scenario, Harvick would only need to average a 25th-place finish to win the title.
Busch Series: Sam's Town 250
There are only five races to go in the Busch Series, and David Green is hanging on to a 36-point lead over Brian Vickers.
What does Green need to clinch?
Obviously, Vickers is unlikely to win each of the final five races. But Vickers can easily average a fifth-place finish in the five events, so what does Green need?
Green only has 7.2 points per race to play with -- technically, eight points per race. If Vickers averages 155-160 points per race, then Green only has just over one spot per race to play with.
Clearly, 36 points is nothing.
Craftsman Truck Series: Advance Auto Parts 200
The Craftsman Truck Series points race is about the same -- Brendan Gaughan leads Travis Kvapil by 30 points with three races to go.
Gaughan's lead will be wiped out this weekend if Kvapil wins and Gaughan finishes sixth or worse.
Ted Musgrave -- who is only 73 points behind Gaughan -- is one of the best at getting around Martinsville.
NASCAR.com's Ryan Smithson breaks down the title chases every Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET
The opinions listed here are solely those of the writer.
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