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This year is no different, and it's a shame, because he's authored a remarkable year in 2003, one that looked pretty dark the first time the tour visited Atlanta.
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| Bill Elliott has finished on the lead lap in all but two of the races in the second half. Credit: Autostock |
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In Atlanta in March, Elliott's engine blew, leaving him 36th in the points.
The key race for Elliott is an unlikely one -- a road course. At Sonoma in June, he finished fourth after driving flawlessly all afternoon.
Since Sonoma, Elliott has finished worse than 20th only two times. In that span of 16 races, he's scored five top fives.
Five top fives in the last 16 races. That's more than Matt Kenseth (3). Or Dale Earnhardt Jr. (4).
Elliott has a real shot at finishing in the top 10 in the points -- something he hasn't done since 1997.
10th in points. One final speech at the banquet is on the line.
But he'll have to beat Kurt Busch head-to-head to do it.
Kurt Busch is only 19 points behind Elliott for that coveted 10th spot.
In the last seven races, Busch has scored only 552 points. Elliott has scored an astounding 950 points, so he's made up 398 points on Busch in the last seven races.
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| Kurt Busch is out of the top 10 for the first time since the spring race at Atlanta. Credit: Autostock |
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During that time, Elliott has gone from 16th to 10th; Busch has slipped from 8th to 11th.
You have to give the edge to Elliott on this one.
He had some engine problems early in the season, but Evernham Motorsports seems to have fixed it -- neither Elliott or teammate Jeremy Mayfield have had an engine problem in the second half.
Busch has blown three engines in the last five races, giving him five for the year.
One of Busch's blown motors came at Atlanta.
AMS is typically one of the tougher tracks on engines -- it asks a lot to make a motor last 500 miles while hitting 9,000 RPMs at the end of the 2,332-foot frontstretch.
Elliott is due for a good finish at Atlanta -- he hasn't finished better than 10th since they reconfigured the track in 1997.
What does Kenseth need this weekend?
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| Matt Kenseth hasn't had a top-five finish since August. Credit: Autostock |
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Basically, what he had at Martinsville -- a top-20 finish. And he was fourth there in the spring, and he's got three straight top-10s there. And it doesn't matter where he qualifies.
There are four races left -- if Kenseth finishes 20th every week, then he has a ton of room to play with.
If Kevin Harvick averages a fifth-place finish in the last four races, then he would still lose the title by 32 points if Kenseth averages 20th the rest of the way.
Give us a more morbid scenario.
You got it.
Let's say Kenseth's motor expires on Lap 5. Harvick wins and leads the most laps.
That's a 151-point swing. That turns Kenseth's lead from 240 to 89 with three races left, which is only 30 points per race.
Clearly, Harvick still has a slim shot, but he needs at least one race with maximum points earned to really apply some heat to Harvick.
Kenseth has failed to finish two races in his brief career at Atlanta, but so has Harvick.
Has Jamie McMurray wrapped up the rookie title?
Yes and no.
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| Jamie McMurray has gained 10 spots in the standings in the last 12 races. Credit: Autostock |
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On the track, McMurray pretty much has it in the bag.
The only way Greg Biffle can outscore him in rookie points (McMurray leads 275-242) is if he wins three of the final four races.
Oh yeah. He'll have to finish second in the fourth race, too.
But that is not the complete voting. "Discretionary" points are awarded to a rookie -- which covers everything from media relations to community involvement -- and it can mean up to 30 points.
Busch Series: Aaron's 312 at Atlanta
David Green experienced a 59-point swing when he lost a cylinder late at Memphis, while Brian Vickers finished fifth after leading the most laps.
Atlanta is going to be an interesting challenge. Vickers has very little track time at Atlanta, although he tested there this month.
Green's just the opposite. He has a lot of seat time on Atlanta's high banks in both the Busch and Winston Cup Series.
This is an exceptionally tough race to call. They only race at Atlanta once a year in the Busch Series, and since Vickers is so young, we really do not have much of a barometer to go with.
The main thing Vickers and Green must avoid is the dreaded accident. An accident at Atlanta will probably finish you for the day.
Even in the sponsor-depleted Busch Series, 35 cars will still running at the end of the 2002 Busch event at Atlanta.
Craftsman Truck Series: Off weekend
Brendan Gaughan sure can breathe easier after picking up 25 points at Martinsville.
The main thing that helped Gaughan was the fact that Ted Musgrave never got going at Martinsville -- he finished 10th.
Had Musgrave won, he'd be within 20 points of Gaughan instead of the 69-point deficit he faces with just two races to go.
With races at Phoenix and Miami, Gaughan would have been in real trouble had Musgrave closed the gap at Martinsville.
But he didn't, and Gaughan can clinch the title with a pair of fifth-place finishes.
NASCAR.com's Ryan Smithson breaks down the title chases every Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET
The opinions listed here are solely those of the writer.
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