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| Jeff Gordon has averaged 167 points per race in the last six races. Credit: Autostock |
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In the last six races, Gordon has gained 337 points on Matt Kenseth, but he's still 296 behind.
And he's got four races to blame it on.
Starting at Watkins Glen, Gordon finished 28th or worse in four straight events.
Never before in Gordon's career had he run four events and finished 28th or worse in each of them, but he did it from Watkins Glen to Darlington.
Gordon scored only 293 points in those four races. During the same period, Matt Kenseth racked up 566 points.
That's a difference of 273 points.
The accident at Watkins Glen has a lot to do with it. Gordon ran out of gas on the final lap and was trying to coast back to the line for a top five finish, but Kevin Harvick nailed him and send him into the fence.
Instead of beating Kenseth, who finished eighth, Gordon ended up 33rd and lost 78 points.
Who will nail down second in the standings?
The fans may not care, but there's a lot of Winston bonus at stake for this one. As Marty Smith noted last week, finishing second in the standings pays $1 million more than finishing sixth.
Even in the age of $17 million sponsorships, $1 million is heavy motivation.
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| Jimmie Johnson is one top-five away from doubling his 2002 total. Credit: Autostock |
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Break it down.
It appeared that Ryan Newman pretty much had second place wrapped up -- he's been on a tear in the second half -- but his wreck with Dale Earnhardt Jr. cost him between 70 and 80 points.
As it is, Newman is now 91 points behind Earnhardt Jr. for second with only three races to go. Obviously, he'll have to beat Earnhardt Jr. on average of 6-7 spots per race.
Even with Newman winning nearly a quarter of the races this year, it's asking a lot.
So who will finish second?
The safe money points to someone who's just been hanging around -- Jimmie Johnson.
Johnson is only eight points out of second, and he's finished worse than 11th just once in the last 10 races. He was 34th at Talladega, but his engine blew.
Clearly, Johnson is on a roll, and he's sure to be strong at Phoenix after winning at Loudon both times in 2003.
Johnson is a much-improved driver in 2003. In his rookie season, he only had six top-five finishes -- a low number for someone who won three times -- but he's already got 11 this year.
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| Kurt Busch Credit: Autostock |
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Is the top 10 in the standings all set?
Not quite.
Terry Labonte spent a ton of time in the garage in Atlanta and finished 33rd, while Kurt Busch finished eighth.
Busch picked up 83 points on Labonte, who had scored 26 straight finishes inside the top 25. Busch now trails Labonte by only 26 points with three to go -- Busch can easily pick up half that in bonus points.
This is going to be a fascinating match-up. Busch has had engine troubles all year -- he's officially blown five of them, and four of the engine failures came in races that were 400 miles are shorter.
Busch Series: Bashas 200 at Phoenix
Vickers tumbled four spots in the standings, but all is not lost.
Vickers is only 49 points behind leader David Green. This one will have all five of the front-runners competing for the title at Miami.
Phoenix shouldn't be a real stumbling block for any of the front-runners. Unlike Atlanta, an accident at Phoenix does not negate a lead-lap finish.
Engines are not abused much at Phoenix -- it's a short race (only 200 miles) and temperatures won't reach the 100-degree readings we saw at PIR two years ago.
The man with the most to gain at Phoenix is Ron Hornaday, who is only 35 points behind Green.
He was fourth at PIR last year, and he arguably has more laps on this track than any other driver in the Busch Series.
Craftsman Truck Series: Chevy Silverado 150 at Phoenix
After an off-weekend, the Trucks are in Phoenix for their penultimate race.
Brendan Gaughan's 45-point lead appears huge -- he only needs two fifth-place finishes to clinch the title.
But don't count out Ted Musgrave. Like Hornaday, he's been driving at Phoenix for a decade, and he finished second in this race last year and sixth in 2001.
But Musgrave is 69 points behind Gaughan, meaning that even is Musgrave won and led the most laps, Gaughan would have to finish 18th or worse to lose the points lead.
Gaughan has finished 18th or worse just twice in 2003 -- he got caught up in a wreck at Dover, and he engine expired at Kentucky.
NASCAR.com's Ryan Smithson breaks down the title chases every Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET
The opinions listed here are solely those of the writer.
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