Title 411: Rockingham

2003/2002 Driver Comparison

2003/2002 Points Comparison

Bill Elliott drew closer to his first top-10 points finish since 1997 with a 14th-place run at Phoenix -- it was his eighth straight finish of 15th or better.

	Bill Elliott Credit: Autostock

And it probably ended Terry Labonte's hopes of climbing into the top 10 for the first time since 1998.

Labonte has scored two straight finishes of 30th or worse, which has knocked him from 9th in the standings to 11th.

And it won't be easy to get that back. He's 54 points behind Elliott, meaning he'll have to beat him by 5-8 spots per race, and Elliott has been slightly more adept at leading laps than Labonte has in 2003.

Elliott has been running at the finish in 27 straight races.

Since his engine blew at Texas, Elliott has been one of the best drivers -- statistics wise -- on the circuit. He's averaged a 14.1 finish since Texas, not much below Ryan Newman's average (13.5) for the whole season.

What spots are locked in?

Probably every position from 6-10.

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Harvick's wreck at Phoenix, while not his fault, shoved him back to 6th in the standings when all of his competitors for the second spot all finished in the top 10.

That means he dropped a minimum of 85 points to no fewer than four drivers. And it will be near impossible making that up in just two races, even to Ryan Newman, who is just 22 points ahead of him in fifth.

Stewart has seventh

Behind Harvick is Stewart in seventh. Stewart is 217 points behind Harvick and 205 ahead of Bobby Labonte, so Stewart has seventh locked up.

If Stewart finishes seventh, it will be his worst points finish to date, and his two victories on the season will be a career low.

Labonte's got eighth, too

Bobby Labonte is 72 points ahead of Kurt Busch, and while it's not as certain as Stewart's final finish, Labonte should be able to maintain his position.

	Dale Jarrett Credit: Autostock

Labonte has been eighth in the standings for eight weeks during the season, including the last month. While it's hardly satisfactory considering his hot start of 2003, it's a nice return to form after he finished 16th in 2002.

Jarrett cracks top 25

A late flat tire for Dale Jarrett at Phoenix turned a top 15 finish into a 29th-place nightmare. Even so, he moved into the top 25 in the points for the first time in the second half.

Jarrett had fallen off the top 25 chart in early June, when his engine expired at Dover.

But Jarrett can see the light. Phoenix was his third straight lead-lap finish -- it was just the second time this season he's had three straight lead-lap finishes.

Busch Series: Target House 200 at Rockingham

This is one too complicated to call, but we know this -- David Green, who is 22 points out, had the best car among the title contenders the last time the Busch Series was at Rockingham.

Jamie McMurray dominated the spring event, but Green won the Bud Pole and finished second.

Unfortunately for the title contenders, McMurray is entered in this weekend's race.

Even though the points leader has been jinxed in the Busch Series as of late, Scott Riggs has a slight edge, because ppc Racing usually builds an excellent intermediate car.

Riggs has been pretty streaky at Rockingham, averaging a 20th-place finish there with one top five and one DNF.

Craftsman Truck Series: Ford 200 at Homestead-Miami

Brendan Gaughan, who has a 26-point lead over Ted Musgrave, will clinch the title with a fourth-place finish, assuming Musgrave wins and leads the most laps.

If Gaughan finishes fifth and leads a lap, he will clinch.

Dodge is pulling out all the stops to ensure a title. Gaughan is taking no fewer than three trucks to the wind tunnel for Miami, and he says he will take the best one.

Gaughan is at his best on high-banked tracks -- he has scored four wins on high-banked tracks in 2003.

NASCAR.com's Ryan Smithson breaks down the title chases every Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET

The opinions listed here are solely those of the writer.