The Last Lap: Is the sophomore jinx for real?

Early success in any form of sport can prove the sharpest of two-edged swords.

Excel when expectations are low and you're a savior. The owners look like skilled prognosticators and, in NASCAR more than any other sport, the sponsors feel like Jed Clampett (uncovered hidden riches).

But struggle when expectation is lofty, you're considered a slumping talent or, worse yet, jinxed. The bosses demand results, people get shuffled, sponsors feel like M.C. Hammer (had it all and lost it).

Suddenly, driver goes from wunderkind to "wonder what happened?"

Makes you wonder, is there truly a sophomore jinx in Winston Cup racing, or is winning early in a career just beginner's luck?

For the record, when my bosses posed this question to me I responded as such:

"Do what now?"

Let's see what you guys had to say:

lagnese22: I believe there is a sophomore jinx. Ryan Newman has had the worst luck this year. It's been plain horrible.

The guy can't catch a break. Johnson has been pretty good, but he has had some bad luck on thelast laps of races.

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Later in their career, I think they'll both be running for Winston Cups. They just got to get through their sophomore year.

Many responses to this week's topic centered around the misfortune Newman and Johnson have endured as sophomores. I said it last week and I'll say it again, presently these boys can't buy a break at Midas.

Kansasking24: Jimmie Johnson and Ryan Newman just need to cool off and goon down to Joe's Barbeque in Shallotte, North Carolina.

If they have the pleasure of eating Joe's world famous BBQ, they will find a little more gas in there car, if you know what i'm sayin'.

We get it, there, Toto. And an original joke it is, too.

Here's some more expert analysis:

Squirrel: Every once in a while a blind squirrel finds a nut. The great ones find them a little more often!

	Matt Kenseth struggled in his sophomore campaign after winning the Coca-Cola 600 as a rookie. Credit: Autostock

Blind squirrels have to work harder. Don't forget that.

Chief37: I don't believe in jinxes, except for that one that keeps the Red Sox from winning Game 7.

I think it's more a function of having a memory of where they ran well or not so well and expecting to do the same or better every time.

The end of a "jinx" depends on when the driver can get back to the old "drive it like you stole it".

In other words, confidence. A driver's self-belief in his or her own ability is everything for young drivers, and is the crucial component difference between aggression and recklessness.

After a few bad outings, confidence may wane, leading a driver to question his or her tactics behind the wheel. That leads to pressing, which leads to overdriving, which leads to wadded up racecars.

Once again, it's about expectation. When folks expect you to run 15th and you run 10th, you're the next big thing. But run 20th when you're expected to run fifth, you're the next big flameout.

Hex45: I dunno about the whole sophomore jinx thing. I recall a certain sophomore who won a championship and went on to get 6 more. I think he drove No. 3.

Preach it, brother.

msnascar: It would be interesting to run a correlation between age and driver wins. That said, I see three factors in early wins.

First, very young drivers have not yet gained a true understanding of their own vulnerability.

One only need see the movie Jackass to understand the false feelings of invulnerability of most males under the age of 25.

Maturity, plus responsibilities, such as a wife and children, will later inhibit some of the all out fearlessness of the very young. Second, there is the driving force to prove oneself in a new environment.

Those just entering the sport will more likely risk everything to gain the respect of their peers in the garage than those who have been around for a while...even just a year.

Finally, those around for a year have a first hand understanding of the pain of a frontal attack against a concrete wall and its possible consequences for the driver and the racecar.

This first-hand understanding will introduce sufficient psychological stress to slow someone down...even if the slow down can only be measured in milliseconds.

But, as we all know, that is sufficient time in NASCAR to mean the difference between losing and winning.

I think Bill Gates has a point, here. Until a guy knows what it feels like to plow into a wall at 165 mph, he's more apt to push the envelope.

	Jimmie Johnson has not struggled in 2003, but like Newman, he's scored just one top-five. Credit: Autostock

Dale Jarrett says this about Newman all the time. Newman's pedal to the metal, lift for nothing style is truly amazing - and it hasn't changed. Though if not for bad luck Newman wouldn't have any, he's still hammer down all the time.

Fourteen and nine-tenths seconds at Bristol? Unbelievable.

Cmears: Lets compare this to something that just about everyone here has gone through... hitting your thumb with a hammer.

Just about everyone can drive a nail. Some do it better than others, but when an experienced (or even a veteran) hits their thumb with a hammer, is it bad luck, or error of the hammerer?

There is no such thing as a jinx.

It doesn't matter if you are a rookie or a veteran, if you are going to do bad, your going to do bad, doesn't matter if it's your first or 15thyear.

Everyone has them. Granted, Harvick had a bad year last year and Newman is having a bad year this year, look a little deeper.

No RCR team did well last year, and I chock that up to the organization itself. They were going through growing pains by adding the 30 team.

Same thing with Penske. They just switched to Dodge from Ford. I don't know what Matt Kenseth's excuse was for the 2001 season, but I'm sure it would have a lot of Uh's in it.

Uh, what? Driving a nail versus driving a 3,400-pound machine at 160+? I'd have to think the latter is a bit more difficult. Keep trying, Casey.

Running bad your second year isn't so much of a jinx as it is a lack of experience. During the off season, so much changes with these teams that unexperienced drivers have to learn to win all over again.

Take the lackluster performance of sophomore Ryan Newman as an example. Penske changes from a Ford to a Dodge and Ryan has struggled. Granted, if he could avoid a wreck he would be better off.

But have you ever thought that maybe the reason he finds himself in so much trouble during the race is that he isn't accustomed to the way the Dodge handles in traffic?

Jimmie Johnson is another fine example. His lack of experience contributes to his lack of glorious finishes. He runs in thetop-5 most of the race and then gets careless and wrecks with 1 to go.

I think that most people forget that most of these guys are kids. Brought into a sport full of big dogs when they are just pups. So they nail a few exciting wins early on and everyone expects them to contend every week. It's kind of like the A+ high school kid who ends up being a C+ college student.

I think the key to avoiding these problems lies on the car owner to provide as much consistency for the first few years as possible.

This would benefit the driver to be around the same faces. Also a role model like Buddy Baker's role with Newman couldn't hurt either.

That way, you keep the parents with the kid to make sure he goes to class. Then maybe if you are lucky, you might have a graduate in a few years.

One of the top three responses to this query, and I forgot to log their screen name.

Maybe they're jinxed.