Fantasy Preview: Talladega

Before you even consider whom to place on your roster you must decide whether the "Big One" is likely to happen in the Aaron's 499.

Six rookies showed up at Daytona this February, full of enthusiasm; they will be back at Talladega. The superspeedways are tracks that do not reward a zestful approach and the largest melee at Daytona this February was triggered by one of the "Young Guns."

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With only one restrictor plate race completed by some of the freshman (and an incomplete for several of them), the "Big One" is likely to occur again.

The "Big One" crash is a respecter of no person. It can happen at the head of the field, or it can happen at the middle of the field. The only certainty is that the further forward a driver goes, the fewer cars there are in front of him to make a mistake that will sweep him into a crash.

THE FAVORITES

	Dale Earnhardt Jr.

As a result, your favorites come from the drivers who have spent the greatest amount of time at the head of the pack in recent years.

Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has recorded nearly three times as many laps in the lead at Talladega than his closest competitor. Combine the laps led from the other restrictor plate track at Daytona and the No. 8 still has nearly twice as many laps in the lead as the second place driver. When a driver is in the lead on one of the big tracks, the only person he must worry about is himself... and perhaps the one car attempting to overtake him. Earnhardt Jr. has logged so many laps in the lead that worries about an interloper are minimal.

VIDEO CLIPS NASCAR.COM's Marty Smith and MRN Radio's Danielle Frye tell you what to expect and who to watch this weekend at Talladega. Play video

Surprisingly, the driver who has spent the second most laps at the head of the field over the last three years at Talladega is not Earnhardt Jr.'s teammate Michael Waltrip, but rather Jeff Gordon, by the narrowest of margins (110 laps versus Waltrip's 108). This is significant because of the dominance that DEI has shown in regards to finishing at the front of the field on the restrictor plate tracks during that span of time.

Since recording his second Talladega victory in 2000, Gordon has placed in the top-10 on all but two occasions in the seven races that followed, and he was favored in one of the two races in which he finished poorly. His engine blew and took him from contention.

The other given on the superspeedways is that no man is an island unto himself. The drivers who have the third and fourth most laps in the lead under their belt are the teammates of the two favored drivers: Michael Waltrip has logged 108 circuits at the head of the field and Jimmie Johnson has 88. If circumstances allow, both of these drivers will draft with their corporate partners to get around the competition.

	Jeff Gordon (24) and Jimmie Johnson (48) should be tough.

Waltrip has a much better record on the sister track of Daytona than Talladega. Add the 198 laps he has led on that track and it gives him the second most behind teammate Earnhardt Jr. Still, Waltrip broke into victory lane last Fall on this speedway.

Hendrick Motorsports overall has been much better at Talladega than they have been at Daytona and Johnson is no exception. The predominance of his 88 laps in the lead at Talladega came in last Fall's race, where he had one of the few cars that could keep up with the DEI duo. With Earnhardt Jr. momentarily trapped off the leader's lap, it appeared Johnson was in a good position to usurp their authority until the No. 8 knocked the No. 15 into Johnson's car and sent him spinning through the turn 1 grass.

The driver who cause the caution (Earnhardt Jr.) received the "Free Pass" benefit and eventually came home second to his teammate. Johnson went to the garage with a twisted engine.

DARK HORSES

	Sterling Marlin

Sterling Marlin has always had a knack for the superspeedway; five of his ten career victories have come on the restrictor plate tracks. Marlin was behind the wheel of Larry McClure's car for all five of the checkers, but he has recorded top-5s for five different teams, including current owner Chip Ganassi. At Talladega, he has logged the fifth most laps at the head of the field with a total of 59. Granted these are modest numbers, but with DEI and Hendrick Motorsports hogging more than 56% of the laps, not much is left over for the competition.

Flip a coin before adding Tony Stewart to your roster, but if he can avoid the "Big One," Stewart will have a good day. In 25 combined Cup and Busch races on restrictor plate tracks, Stewart has been swept into nine accidents during his career. When he is good, however, he is very good. He won an IROC race in 2002 and posted another runner-up finish in that series in 2000. In the Cup series he has four second place finishes. Three of these have come at Talladega.

AVOIDANCE PRINCIPLE

	Scott Wimmer

You may not be certain which rookie will trigger the "Big One," but rest assured one of them will. The rookies have two strikes against them this race. Their enthusiasm and desire to impress their owners will cause the bolder ones to take unnecessary risks, landing them and several competitors in the garage. Their relative lack of experience will allow the veterans to shuffle the cautious ones out of the draft, especially during green flag pit stops.

So far in 2004 the new aerodynamic and tire package made the most difference in the Daytona 500. Coupled with smaller fuel cells instituted several races ago, NASCAR finally found a combination that would break up the large packs into smaller ones. The smaller the pack, the less likely it is that one driver's mistake will wipe out half the field.

The drivers most likely to be shuffled into the second, third or fourth pack will be those with the least experience. There will be a notable exception — like Scott Wimmer at Daytona — but searching for that driver will cause you heartbreak.

Dan Beaver's fantasy analysis appears each week on the afternoon prior to Nextel Cup qualifying.