Fantasy Preview: MBNA 400 "A Salute to Heroes"

Dover International Speedway has earned its reputation as the Monster Mile. Twenty-four degrees of banking on a one-mile track translates into laps averaging nearly 160 mph. The groove is narrow, and even though wrecked cars will eventually find the bottom of the track, 43 snarling beasts of metal do not leave much room for a driver to sneak through.

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For all the carnage, however, drivers hold their destiny in their own hands. Most of the accidents happen in traffic coming out of the corners when the trailing driver pushes up into the car he is attempting to pass. Drivers with a good sense of when not to press the issue, and those who know what pack of drivers to stay away from can outlast the competition and be one of the few cars on the lead lap.

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Drivers who stay at the head of the field can avoid catastrophe. The winners of five of the last six races held at Dover have led the most laps, while the single exception was a driver leading the second most laps.

In large part, this is the reason Dover is a track of sweeps. Tony Stewart swept both Dover races in his sophomore season back in 2000; Jimmie Johnson performed the feat in his rookie season and Ryan Newman was the latest driver to earn the sweep last year -- also in his sophomore season.

The Favorites

Tony Stewart has never had a bad race at Dover in the Cup series. An 11th in this race in 2002 was the only time he has failed to earn a top-10 in the senior series. In fact, the worst he has ever finished in any series at Dover was 17th in his first ever attempt in the Busch series back in 1996. Two years later he posted his first top-five in the MBNA Platinum 200 and came back later that year to finish eighth in an Indy Racing League event.

	Ryan Newman

Like Stewart, Ryan Newman has never performed badly at Dover. A pair of top-10s in his rookie season witnessed his rival for Rookie of the Year honors -- Johnson -- sweeping victory lane. Not to be outdone, Newman stormed back in his sophomore season to lead the most laps in the spring and second most in the fall and capture his own double.

Jimmie Johnson had an opportunity last year to make history by winning in his first three starts at Dover. He ran strong enough to win in the spring before he hit a patch of oil while leading and wiped out his Chevrolet. Undaunted, he came back in the fall to finish eighth.

When Dale Earnhardt Jr. struggled at Las Vegas earlier in the year, he came back to post a strong finish the following week. Expect the same performance from Jeff Gordon. He enters the race with four Dover Cup victories to his credit. Three of these were earned consecutively in 1995 and 1996 after starting on the first two rows each time. If he qualifies up front, take that as an omen and start him in the race.

Dark Horses

	Scott Wimmer

The three Dover sweeps in the last four years came with a rookie or a sophomore behind the wheel. Dover is a grueling racetrack, and youth is served by their conditioning. When they completed their sweeps, both Johnson and Newman were in the midst of better seasons than either Scott Wimmer or Brian Vickers are now, but Wimmer or Vickers could turn their seasons around with a surprise victory at this track. In the Busch series, Wimmer has a six-race streak of top-15 finishes with a victory in the 2002 MBNA All-American Heroes 200. In every race he has run on this tough old track, he has finished within one lap of the leader.

Brian Vickers likewise has never finished outside the top 15 in the Busch series at Dover. What makes his statistic even more remarkable, however, is that his inaugural run came in a family-owned car back in 2002. Last year he swept the top five here with a victory in the fall race, but what makes him most attractive this week is the pair of top-15s he has earned in the last two races in the Cup series.

Avoidance Principle

Make certain you notice what car number is on the side of a Dave Blaney entry* before automatically adding him to your roster. As good as Bill Davis' cars have been in their occasional starts, Jim Smith has struggled. The way to get better as a driver at the top or the middle of the grid is to improve one's performance on the tracks where one struggles, but that doesn't mean they have to risk your fantasy points in the process. Blaney has not earned a top-10 in either the Cup or Busch series in more than three years and he has never earned one in the senior division.

	Ward Burton

Ward Burton might not crash in the MBNA 400, but you probably don't want to bet on him. In 20 Dover starts in the Cup series, he has retired due to crash damage six times (30%), and when he has been running at the end he has not been running strong. His average finish at Dover is 27th, and there is only one track (Kansas Speedway) on which he has a worse record.

Once upon a time Kyle Petty was to be feared at Dover; he won the 1995 Miller Genuine Draft 500. His strong performances lasted into his first couple of attempts with Petty Enterprises in 1998, when he posted back-to-back top-five finishes. He crashed in the following spring's race and has not been heard of since. In the last nine events he has entered, he has failed to earn a single top-15.

*Since this article was written, Blaney's ride has switched back to the No. 23. However, his lack of success at Dover should still cause some concern. Pay close attention to him in practice before committing a spot on your roster.