Track Smack: Sonoma

Does Bobby Labonte have a realistic shot at the title?

Dave Rodman: Double-hell-yeah. Don't forget, all he has to do is stay within the top 10 -- and then all bets are off. He can get on a tear as well as anyone else that will be in the top 10 at that point, and as you know, several of those last 10 venues definitely favor him.

Ryan Smithson: His chances are slim at best. He has had a fine year and will win at least one more race, but the 18 outfit has not shown the ability to string together four or five straight top-five finishes. He's 266 points out and it's not even halfway yet.

Lee Montgomery: Of course he does. As we've said before, anybody in the top 10 has a shot, and he's pretty firmly entrenched in the top 10. So anyone who wants to overlook the 18 guys, feel free. That's how they like it.

Marty Smith: Absolutely. He's fourth in the points. Anyone in the top 10 has a shot, and he's positioning himself to be within 20 points of the leader once the Chase starts. He's methodical, doesn't break much. That's what will prevail in the Chase, so all he has to do is qualify, and he's setting himself up quite well for that.

Lee Montgomery: Ryan, slim at best? Who else are you counting out?

Send a nice letter Marty Ryan Dave Lee

Dave Rodman: Ryan, it don't matter if he's 466 points out, today. Under the new format he only needs to have one target -- top 10 at 26. They will make that easily, and then it's a wide-open race. In fact, given their previous championship, I'd rate them as one of the faves.

Marty Smith: Smithson, good Lord son...Think before you speak.

Ryan Smithson: You really think a guy like Kurt Busch has a shot too, Lee?

Lee Montgomery: Let me repeat myself. Anyone who is in the top 10 has a chance.

Send a mean letter Marty Ryan Dave Lee

Ryan Smithson: Guys, this points system is simply not as radical as you two seem to think it is. It still demands consistency. And the 8 and the 48 have been the most consistent.

Dave Rodman: Ryan, you ought to be involved in a serious Spam program for what you're on today!!! Kurt Busch could win five of the last 10 races, easily. Where do you think that would leave him, then?

Lee Montgomery: It is radical, Ryan. No one knows how it's going to play out. There are issues we haven't even thought of that could come into play.

Marty Smith: Sure it rewards consistency, Smithson, but the fact remains that if BL is 200 points out or 2000, if he's in the top 10 after Richmond, the slate is wiped clean.

Ryan Smithson: Lee, it's not that different. Whoever is in the top 10 the most in the last 10 races will win. One DNF more than offsets a win. Or even two wins.

	Honey, I tried to find you a Kevin Harvick T-shirt, but they will all sold out. Credit: Autostock

Lee Montgomery: One wreck by anyone, and they're done. That is different.

Ryan Smithson: See, you just proved my point. And the 8 and 48 are pretty good at steering clear of trouble. I think it's a two-man show. Or three. Kenseth.

Lee Montgomery: But you can't say they will steer clear.

Marty Smith: Proved your point? Smithson! You said BL has a slim chance of winning the championship. Right now, he has as good a chance as anybody. End of story. Discussion over.

Dave Rodman: Before you're done, you'll be up to 10 -- which is where you should be.

Lee Montgomery: And whose to say someone's luck will change in the final 10?

Ryan Smithson: No, but I am pretty confident saying that the title winner this year won't simply rise from the ashes like everyone is predicting, like a Kasey Kahne or a Kevin Harvick.

	In an apparent cost-cutting measure, drivers will now begin simply interviewing themselves. "So, Elliott how your car?" "My M&Ms Ford is great. Glad you asked."

Marty Smith: If Bobby Labonte wins the 2004 Nextel Cup, he won't have "risen from the ashes." What'd you eat today, man?

Lee Montgomery: Well, place your bets. Chances are good you'll be wrong.

Ryan Smithson: Who do you think will win the 10-race shootout, then, Lee?

Dave Rodman: Both the teams you cite have gotten better, but they're not free of the equivalent of racing's version of the yips.

Ryan Smithson: Lee, you talk big, but you're too scared to make predictions.

Lee Montgomery: Scared? No, too smart to make a prediction at this point in the season.

Ryan Smithson: Nice cop-out. I am not smart either, but I am not scared to make a guess at it.

Marty Smith: I said Jimmie Johnson before the season, and I'll say Jimmie Johnson now. The 48 is the best team in the game, boys.

Dave Rodman: If Stewart gets into the top 10 -- based on history I would place some ducats there. But they've been dogged by something pretty smelly so far.

Lee Montgomery: A guess would all it would be. Aren't you the guy who said Rusty Wallace would never win again?

Ryan Smithson: There is nothing wrong with guessing right now. That's the fun of it. And yeah, I did say that. But you're the guy who said P.J. Jones was the next great superstar.

AUDIO CLIPS Too lazy to read Track Smack? You are not alone. Listen to our audio version, where we duscuss why owners bother putting in "ringers" for road course races. / 5 short minutes, 27 seconds Listen

Marty Smith: This is the most defensive I've ever seen Smithson. This is humorous.

Dave Rodman: Ryan Newman hasn't been hopeless by any means, either. He could dust everyone in that last-10 run. Make it a runaway.

Lee Montgomery: You're smoking crack again.

Do you guys really think Greg Biffle will stay with Roush Racing?

Lee Montgomery: He'll stay. For now. So will Kurt Busch. For now.

Ryan Smithson: Not sure what happened there, but all those Gibbs rumors sure did die quickly.

Lee Montgomery: Biffle will probably eventually leave Roush, but who knows?

	Matt Kenseth spun me out, and all I got was this lousy T-shirt.

Marty Smith: I think there's something to it. He wanted out last year, and has been vocally critical for much of this year. People say he owes Jack Roush loyalty since Roush gave him a career. I have to say I somewhat agree with that, but we all know loyalty is nil in this industry.

Dave Rodman: The way he talks sometimes makes me wonder, but I think the things he started saying last year about his Chevy Busch car vs. his Roush Fords, and the comments that he's continued to make this season are more an indication of Greg's passion than anything deep and dire.

Ryan Smithson: It really frustrates me that Biffle is 23rd in the standings, because he's a top-10 driver. No one can dispute that.

Lee Montgomery: One thing about Gibbs is -- whoever gets in that car might not be there long. Gibbs didn't sign Yeley for his comedic ability.

Dave Rodman: He'll stay next year. I think him and Dougie have got too good a deal going to jump ship to a questionable program -- even given that it would be at Gibbs' and no doubt with mega-money.

Marty Smith: Biffle's a wheelman, for sure, Smithson. He can drive a loose race car as well as anyone. He loves slingin' it sideways through the corner, hitting the fence a few times...

Ryan Smithson: If they bring Yeley up, it's too early. Heck, Vickers was borderline early and he won the dadgum title.

Lee Montgomery: That's what I'm saying.

Ryan Smithson: Yeley's made fine progress the past month, but he needs a lot longer time.

Lee Montgomery: If Yeley is ready in two years, that gives someone one year in Gibbs' car. But Rodman, there's no way a Joe Gibbs Racing car would be a questionable program. It would be a championship car right off the bat.

Ryan Smithson: Why not give Yeley more seasoning, hire Biffle, and see if they are ready for a fourth car in two years?

Marty Smith: Martin Truex is ready, and Junior still won't let him go to Cup. Gibbs should use similar patience with Yeley. Going too fast is the worst idea. See Casey Atwood.

Dave Rodman: J.J. is a real diamond and just needs the time. Hell, DEI is going to keep Martin Truex in the Busch Series another year and that ought to tell you everything you need to know about guys advancing too soon.

Lee Montgomery: Even Yeley doesn't want to move up yet. But he'll be there eventually.

Michigan Predictions  Marty picked Kahne (2nd)  Ryan picked Newman (1st)  Lee picked Johnson (4th)

Dave Rodman: Could you imagine a Roush or DEI or RCR car being questionable? They are right in front of our faces, so as much respect as I have for everyone over there at JGR -- there are no givens.

Lee Montgomery: How many championships have those three won in the last five years? One less combined than JGR. The Gibbs car will be elite, no doubt.

Dave Rodman: We'll see.

Ryan Smithson: Gibbs is still the best overall team from top to bottom in Nextel Cup. Granted, only two cars, but you know what I mean.

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Dave Rodman: Because they have made it a very good point not to overextend their resources and personnel.

Lee Montgomery: But Labonte's chances at the title are "slim at best," Ryan? You contradicted yourself. Again.

Ryan Smithson: Lee, I didn't contradict myself. I merely said that Labonte's 2004 car is a top-five one, but probably not a title-winning one.

Predictions for Sonoma?

Lee Montgomery: Gordon. But not Robby.

Ryan Smithson: Kevin Harvick seems so comfortable at Sonoma, and he's running the Southwest race on Saturday. He's your winner. Mild upset.

Lee Montgomery: Gordon is still fired up about Watkins Glen last year, and I'd bet he runs away with Sears Point. Or Infinity. Or whatever you want to call it.

Dave Rodman: They are kind of snake bit these days. Call me a front-runner but I am going to go with a third consecutive road course score by Robby G -- he's been too good over the last two years not to make that call.

Marty Smith: I'm with you, Rodman. As good as JG and Harvick are, right now Robby Gordon is the best road racer in Nextel Cup. He's going to Victory Lane this weekend. Harvick's a great pick. He got shafted last year.

Lee Montgomery: Not a bad choice. I wouldn't bet against a Gordon 1-2.

Ryan Smithson: You know, Rodman, I love stats. And for every time Robby wins a road course, it makes it that much tough to win again, so picking Robby is not that much of a throw-in. It won't be easy.

Dave Rodman: One of these years a ringer is going to put together the proper pit crew and the proper strategy and not fall off the road and win -- I would like to see Boris Said's hair stand on end, so he's my dark horse pick.

Ryan Smithson: I totally agree, Rodman. The perfect storm.

Lee Montgomery: If Said's hair stood on end, he'd probably kill a couple people.

Ryan Smithson: if Said's hair stood on end, he'd be trapped in the car.

Marty Smith: Boris' hair is great. Last year when he won the pole at Sonoma, all the U.S. Army crewmen wore afro wigs. Classic.

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The opinions listed here are solely those of the participants