"Jeff, I got the weirdest feeling that my engine is going to expire, so take advantage." Credit: AP

Track Smack: Phoenix

Guys, give us your gut feeling -- who will be fighting for the title in the closing laps at Miami?

Lee Montgomery: I think my feeling has changed (even if my gut hasn't). I think we'll only see one guy fighting for the title, Jimmie Johnson. They just seem to be really loose and laid back about this, and I think that's the best approach.

Ryan Smithson: The Chase obviously tightened up at Atlanta, and it'll be even tighter after Phoenix. I really think Johnson has got a shot to win one or two more of these races. It's hard to stop a freight train.

B. Duane Cross: It'll be Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson. I think Junior said adios to the Chase at Atlanta, and I don't think Kurt Busch will be able to hold off the Hendrick duo.

Ryan Smithson: You know, Lee, people forget that Johnson has been the best team all year long. Not Busch, Earnhardt or Gordon.

Dave Rodman: There's a lot of racing miles between here and there -- and I really don't want to go there -- but you're making me. And my gut tells me that the Hendrick duo of Gordon and Johnson will have a battle royal with Mark Martin.

Lee Montgomery: Kurt as much as admitted they changed stuff for Atlanta, and we see what happened. On the other hand, the call by Chad Knaus to pit Jimmie on the last caution was the call of the season. Give up the lead for four tires. Brilliant. And proves they're not "points racing" at all.

Ryan Smithson: You never know what Chad will do. He lives by the sword.

EMAIL Lee Dave Ryan Duane

B. Duane Cross: If Mark Martin comes out of Phoenix with a win, it'll be a great two-race shootout. But he's been bitten by some late-race bad luck lately. If it happens early Sunday at PIR, he may be toast.

Ryan Smithson: I'll never forget Phoenix was the place that Elliott's engine expired back in 1992. He lost the title there.

Dave Rodman: Yeah, but we're to the point of the season where guts -- and the biggest sword -- is going to tell the tale. Now, you made me go with my gut. But I honestly feel that in the format we've been painted into, Jimmie and Chad are driving' the bus.

Lee Montgomery: I have to agree, Dave.

I can't believe I have to wear this hat all weekend. Credit: Autostock

Ryan Smithson: I just don't see Mark Martin getting back in it, guys.

B. Duane Cross: You're right, Lee -- the 48 team is racing for a trophy. Maybe there is something good that has come from the playoff format.

Lee Montgomery: I wouldn't have given them a nickel three races ago, after Jimmie wrecked himself at Kansas. But this team is awesome.

Ryan Smithson: I wrote Johnson off. And if y'all say you didn't too, you're lying through your teeth. Johnson was done.

Dave Rodman: What -- Mark is right in the middle of it. If it comes down to nothing but guts, he'll win in a landslide.

Ryan Smithson: But you know, maybe this proves the format works.

Lee Montgomery: How so?

Ryan Smithson: Lee, Johnson was over 200 back, nearly 300 I think, but this shows you're never out of it.

John Kerry (left) and Kirk Shelmerdine (right) prepare to go out for Bud Pole Qualifying at Atlanta. Both failed to qualify. Credit: Autostock

B. Duane Cross: But the same thing could be said if we were under the old points system, too -- 300 points is 300 points.

Dave Rodman: Lee, you're right. I wouldn't have given them a penny's chance. Because what it had appeared was that everything they had shown all season had evaporated, somehow. Fooled, yah.

B. Duane Cross: I wish it would come down to guts; I'd love to see Martin finally win a points title -- and how much sweeter would it be for Roush (after so many years of coming up short) to win back-to-back titles?

Ryan Smithson: The good thing is, Martin is in good shape for 2005. He just needs some freaking' luck. But he's good to drive for another 3-4 years; I just wish he'd stay.

Dave Rodman: IF you make the Chase you're not out of it. Tell that to Jamie McMurray -- or Joe Nemechek.

Dave Rodman: There's always 2005, right?

So how bad does Jamie McMurray have to feel right now?

Lee Montgomery: How bad does his team have to feel?

Dave Rodman: I don't think he'd feel badly at all, if the danged media wouldn't keep reminding him he'd be 26 points out of the lead of the Chase.

Lee Montgomery: They're the ones who screwed up the car at Bristol. If not for that, he'd be second in the championship.

Michael, meet your new rear tire changer.

Ryan Smithson: Pretty darned bad. Instead of finishing in the top five and getting a few million bucks, he gets a mere $970,000. We could also sit here and point out his engine blew at Daytona while he was running fifth, but no one remembers that, do they?

B. Duane Cross: You know that team is out to prove they belong -- 25-point penalty or no. ... The penalty was a tough blow, but just like the 25-point blow to Junior here's the bottom line that so many fans had been harping on: NASCAR needs to be more consistent.

Dave Rodman: It's pretty impressive what he and Donnie and the boys have run off here for 11 weeks -- but the bottom line is this whole line of conversation is inane. They blew up too many engines, etc., etc., etc.

B. Duane Cross: And then when it is, everyone gets all bent out of shape.

Ryan Smithson: The last thing they need to do is blame themselves for the X-deal. 1. They blew a ton of motors, like Dave said. 2. Go out and win a race.

Dave Rodman: They didn't qualify, so wait 'til next year. Yikes. We don't want to jinx 'em. Look what that did to Ryan Newman.

Lee Montgomery: Inane conversation? This is Track Smack, Worm. It's all inane!

Do I hear $50 for Tony Eury Sr.? Anyone?

Ryan Smithson: Truer words were never spoken, Lee.

Dave Rodman: Whoops. Pardon me. Got carried away, there.

Lee Montgomery: Did you know that Truer looks a lot like Truex? Sorry, random.

Ryan Smithson: Lee, what in the hell are you talking about?

Dave Rodman: Now you're talking. Right back in stride.

B. Duane Cross: So the question is: How long until there are bonus points for qualifying? No matter what anyone is saying publicly, it has to at least be a point of discussion.

Lee Montgomery: They talked about it last year, for sure. I'd bet Newman is pestering them about it.

Ryan Smithson: I'll bet Matt Kenseth and Jeff Burton are praying they don't give bonus points on Fridays.

Dave Rodman: Duane, don't start that. All we need is for someone to recompute the standings attaching whatever x-number of points someone thinks should be awarded for qualifying in the top-three.

Lee Montgomery: IROC baby! Let's give points for halfway, too!

Ryan Smithson: IROC sucks. It really does. It used to be cool.

B. Duane Cross: Someone is already doing the math, Dave. Prolly someone named 'Newman." There should be a bonus for rolling it off the truck and hitting a high note right off the bat.

Lee Montgomery: I'm kidding.

Ryan Smithson: I am going to make Rodman mad; he thinks IROC hasn't lost a beat.

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Dave Rodman: I think there is a lot of interest among NASCAR fans in IROC. They are racing stock cars and they are everyone's favorite drivers. Though I have to admit -- I thought it was a brainstorm by LeeMo when he came up with the stat that McMurray would be second and Nemechek, fifth, if they were even in the Chase.

Lee Montgomery: Well, they have the second and fifth most points in the Chase.

Ryan Smithson: Nemechek does not deserve to be mentioned for the Chase. Are y'all nuts? He just now cracked the top 20.

Lee Montgomery: He should be mentioned the for 2005 Chase.

Ryan Smithson: No doubt.

Dave Rodman: If "The Chase" is considered the final 10 races, then they certainly do deserve to be mentioned, because when a lot of lesser groups would be folding their tents and packing the suntan oil, they are getting it done.

Three drivers (Shane Hmiel, David Stremme and Ashton Lewis) get fresh starts in the Busch Series in 2005. Who will do the best in the new ride?

Ryan Smithson: I, like everyone else, is in awe of Hmiel's talent, and I will be very surprised he does not win at least three races next year. The kid is a future multiple Nextel Cup winner. He just needs seasoning.

Shane Hmiel

Lee Montgomery: I'm telling you, Shane has impressed me a great deal this year. He's loaded with talent. Now, can he and the 32 get it together? We'll see.

Dave Rodman: I think Ashton Lewis will surprise some folks, if they get him together with a competent crew chief. Heck, how about if they take Charlie over there with him?

Dave Rodman: I lean towards Ashton because, I believe, those other two teams are changing manufacturers. On the Busch level, that might be easy. I give the edge to the Marines bunch.

Lee Montgomery: Again, I have to agree. Well said, Wormus.

B. Duane Cross: Stremme will be the guy no one gives a lot of thought to, but he'll run well and surprise more folks than Hmiel and Lewis.

Ryan Smithson: I really thought Stremme was going to get in and win races but it just hasn't happened. Maybe he's going to be a Jimmie Johnson and wait to run well when he's in Cup.

Dave Rodman: Duane, initially that's what I thought, because for better or worse, he has got into that 14 car and been consistent and out front.

Ryan Smithson: Rodman, he's been in the 14 for one race!

Dave Rodman: These off weekends are killing me.

Ryan Smithson: I won't beat you up too bad. But that was funny. Lee, you awake?

Lee Montgomery: I was avoiding the inane.