Ryan Newman's crew appears to be checking out Kurt Busch's girlfriend. Credit: AP

Track Smack: H'stead

Name the driver you think will come out of this five-car pack to win the title.

Ryan Smithson: I think it will be really hard to beat Jimmie Johnson. To state the obvious, momentum is on his side, he's really good at tracks like Homestead, they had a good test there and he's been better all year than anyone else.

Marty Smith: Get used to saying "five-time champion," boys. It's Jeff Gordon. In speaking with other drivers about the Miami test, they said Jeff was in a class of his own. But you're right, Smithson, Jimmie has the mojo, for sure.

Dave Rodman: Setting every possible emotion aside -- Kurt Busch. They're the leaders, their mistakes have been minimal and if Kurt's attitude on Tuesday's teleconference was any indication, they're loose.

Lee Montgomery: This one is just about impossible to predict. A second-year track, three guys too close to call. It's been a charmed year for Kurt Busch, for sure, but Jimmie is just too hot right now to bet against. So on performance alone, I'll say Johnson.

Ryan Smithson: That is pretty cool. We have three different answers.

Ryan Smithson: Marty, a lot of guys are saying Jeff Gordon, even though he has to pass two guys instead of one. I just think it'll be hard for him. Are you going on experience?

EMAIL Lee Dave Ryan MartDawg

Marty Smith: I'm going on all variables. Like I just said, Gordon's competitors say he was unreal at the Homestead test. Plus, he said after Darlington that he's pissed off.

Ryan Smithson: Like Schrader said once: "Don't get the 24 mad."

CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP •   Inside the Chase •   Superstore: Chase driver gear •   Official Standings •   Expanded access to the Chase on TrackPass

Dave Rodman: Having said that though, I think the suspense, intrigue and every other superlative will rule. Just think -- the 97 raced five laps last year and got wrecked. But, they've been good just about everywhere.

Lee Montgomery: It might come down to a pit stop again.

Ryan Smithson: Lee, no doubt it will. Scary, isn't it? I would not want to be a tire changer this weekend.

Lee Montgomery: I mean, it already has, really.

Kasey! Wrong series, bud! Credit: Sherryl Creekmore/NASCAR

Marty Smith: Yeah, you would, Smithson. Those guys love having it in their hands.

Lee Montgomery: NASCAR got exactly what it wanted, for sure.

Dave Rodman: Would be a good day not to be on pit road. Too much stuff might be flying, 'cause you're right -- it could get settled there, when track position is determined.

Ryan Smithson: Gordon was really lucky that hose didn't get stuck under the tire. The changer jerked it and it came loose. If they had to jack the car back up again, jeez, he would have finished who knows where.

Marty Smith: The field got lucky, Smithson. Jeff wins that race without that hose deal.

Marty Smith: How smart does Brian France look right now? Everyone who questioned the Chase is eating crow, and he's sitting back with a dream scenario. That said, Jimmie Johnson is the best driver in NASCAR right now. The way he drove the 48 after that freak lug nut deal was unimaginable.

Marty Smith: He picked up eight or nine spots under green, just blew by guys. And if you don't think it was impressive, ask the guys he dusted.

Ryan Smithson: It's a dream scenario because Busch's engine blew at Atlanta. If that hadn't happened there would have had a lot of room to play with at Homestead. But, it's over, and Johnson pulls off the greatest rally in NASCAR history.

I got it all up here, man. Credit: Autostock

Lee Montgomery: If ifs and buts were candy and nuts.

Dave Rodman: I haven't looked at the retro standings lately. Where would we have been, last year? Or where would Jamie McMurray have been, if this were last year?

Marty Smith: Smithson, you idiot. Why did you just say that?

Ryan Smithson: This can't be good. What now, Marty?

Marty Smith: Stupid comments like "only because Kurt Busch's engine blew" are idiotic. The damn thing blew.

Ryan Smithson: I know, and I said that. Read the whole part.

Marty Smith: It happened.

Ryan Smithson: Read the whole part.

Marty Smith: Do y'all think Junior and Martin have a shot?

Lee Montgomery: No chance. Well, unless the 48, 24 and 97 puke.

Ryan Smithson: No. That's too many people to pass. Even when Kulwicki pulled off that great rally, he only passed two guys.

Marty Smith: Mark may win the dang race, but 82 points is too many. Junior himself said his deficit was too many, as well.

Dave Rodman: Well, I would not have predicted the Atlanta scenario, either -- but it happened. So it is a slim chance, but it could happen.

Obviously, Jamie McMurray was standing and Elliott Sadler was sitting down when this photo was taken. Credit: Autostock

Ryan Smithson: Marty, if Martin was in Jimmie Johnson's spot (18 points back), I'd bet the farm on him.

Marty Smith: Johnson, Chad, that whole bunch. What they're doing is baffling.

It's the most impressive winning binge ever, considering what's on the line and the pressure involved.

Ryan Smithson: I really struggled, thinking Martin hadn't had a title-like year, but he really has had a great year with horrible luck. I think Martin has four-runner-up finishes.

Dave Rodman: I'd say it's a slim chance all five of them will get through Sunday without an issue -- but who'll get hit is impossible to say.

Marty Smith: Well, the way this year has unfolded, there's no way to predict it.

Lee Montgomery: I agree 100 percent.

Ryan Smithson: It's been a great season.

Dave Rodman: It's pretty impressive that with all the superlatives that have been piled up, and with this totally new Chase format, it looks like consistency is still going to tell the tale when Kurt is the titlist.

Marty Smith: That's why NASCAR needs to reward winning, Rodman.

Ryan Smithson: We've had NASCAR.COM since 2001, and this has been the most interesting season of the four.

Marty Smith: The race winner should get 50 points over second place, minimum. Five points is a joke.

Brian France Credit: AP

Dave Rodman: Well, I still think David Poole had one of the best ideas I've seen in a while -- but Brian France in (Tuesday's) paper said they would not consider giving winners a bigger break in any form or fashion.

Ryan Smithson: Marty, Jimmie Johnson could take Homestead off if NASCAR had done that.

Marty Smith: He's earned it, Smithson.

Lee Montgomery: I've always thought 15 points more is plenty.

Dave Rodman: Yeah, but Ryan, saying that is like hanging out with the conspiracy theorists -- no one is going do that. No one ever has in the history of all the premature title clinches.

Ryan Smithson: He really has been the best all year long. I think I was talking to Montgomery, and Lee was like, what if the 48 hadn't experimented in August and lost all that momentum.

Ryan Smithson: This is the second straight year someone has won eight times, and I remember all of us agreeing a few years ago that six wins was the most anyone could win in today's NASCAR.

Reporter: "Yeah, Kurt, can you comment on what Jamie McMurray must be feeling about not making the Chase?" Credit: Autostock

Marty Smith: I picked Johnson last November and picked Gordon second.

Dave Rodman: That's why they call it racing. Just think of how dull and boring this Chase would have been. So if you look at it that way, Brian France got lucky, out of the box.

Marty Smith: Way lucky. But look how much we love it.

Ryan Smithson: The good thing, guys, is that no matter who wins, they had a championship-style year, all around.

Dave Rodman: Absolutely man -- you know I hated the Chase in January. But as the weeks went by, it more than grew on me.

Marty Smith: Makes four of us.

If NASCAR makes minor tweaks to the Chase, what should change? If anything?

Lee Montgomery: Only what Marty said. Give more points to the winner. Let the race winner get 200 points, at least.

Ryan Smithson: Give the winner an even 200 points per race instead of 185.

..and Ryan Newman didn't even see this practical joke coming. Credit: Autostock

Marty Smith: Jimmie Johnson nailed it, to me. He said NASCAR needs to give us a week off after Richmond and before the Chase starts. Hype the hell out of it, and let everyone get some R&R before it starts.

Dave Rodman: I'll jump back to the vague comment I made about brother Poole's suggestion: A 500-point bonus for your first race victory of the season -- no matter where it falls. But I don't know why I bothered to say that because Brian already said they wouldn't do anything like that.

Lee Montgomery: I don't understand that idea.

Ryan Smithson: I don't either, explain, Rodman. Quickly.

Marty Smith: Essentially, Lee, it means you have to win to make the show. Or promotes winning, at least.

Lee Montgomery: So if you win one race and blow up 10 times, you're in.

Ryan Smithson: So Rusty would have made the Chase this year?

Nextel Cup Series •   Results •   Standings •   Schedule •   Best 25 Over Last Six Races •   Best Starts •   Best Finishes •   Complete Race Coverage

Marty Smith: That's not what I said, LeeMo. Not even close.

Dave Rodman: It would provide a greater incentive to win. If you went into Richmond 250 points out of the top-10 -- or qualifying, you could overcome that (hit a ninth inning grand slam, if you will) -- by winning.

Lee Montgomery: No, I think that's what would happen.

Ryan Smithson: I still say Jeff Gordon's going to want that Kansas race back.

Dave Rodman: If you won one race and blew up five times you would not qualify -- you would still have to post consistent quality finishes. Look at Jamie McMurray -- he just about did that but a couple bad runs knocked him out -- and he did not win a race.

Marty Smith: And Junior doesn't want Atlanta and Martinsville back, Smithson? Or Jimmie? He doesn't want Kansas back, too? Of course Gordon wants Kansas back.

Dave Rodman: But other than that, I don't have a clue what other Chase-specific tweaks NASCAR might make.

Ryan Smithson: Marty, I would definitely think Dale Jr. would want that one flick of the wrist back at Atlanta. LOL

Dave Rodman: Hell, I guess he would. He'd be leading the danged championship.

Ryan Smithson: I guess he would. Ouch. 3rd to 33rd -- how many points is that -- about 90?

Marty Smith: 99.

Ryan Smithson: 99 is also Carl Edwards number. Spooky. Just kidding.

Marty Smith: 165 for third. 66 for 33rd.

Dave Rodman: Still doesn't change the fact that a lot can happen in 400 miles Sunday. So not to worry.

Marty Smith: Oops. No, wrong. Not 99. 101.

Ryan Smithson: I guess y'all are trying to get me out of the what-if mode I am in.

Lee Montgomery: You had it right. 165-66 = 99.

Marty Smith: 165 for 3rd, 64 for 33rd.

Lee Montgomery: Ah, yes, that's 101. Math 101, brought to you by the Track Smack Boys.