New format, another title for Matt Kenseth? Credit: Autostock

Smithson's Chase Line: Dover

NASCAR.COM's Ryan Smithson gets inside the numbers of the Chase for the Nextel Cup every Wednesday.

There is strong evidence that Matt Kenseth is back to his 2003 title-winning form, which would make him hard to beat under the Chase format.

Race Line: Dover Jeff Gordon 7-1  Jimmie Johnson 7-1  Ryan Newman 8-1  Tony Stewart 8-1  Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8-1  Mark Martin 10-1  Matt Kenseth 10-1  Jeremy Mayfield 12-1  Kurt Busch 15-1  Elliott Sadler 20-1

Kenseth wrecked at Daytona to kick off the second half, but since then, he has averaged a 12th-place finish.

He has failed to complete just four laps in that 10-race span.

Look for Kenseth's momentum to continue this weekend at Dover. Kenseth has long said that Dover is one of his favorite tracks, and he's scored top-10 finishes in over half of his career starts there.

Kenseth is one of the worst qualifiers in the Nextel Cup Series, but he does pretty well on Fridays at Dover, where he scored his only career Bud Pole. Kenseth has started 20th or better in four of his last five Dover events.

Close, but not quite.

Jimmie Johnson would have won the title in 2003 under the new format, as would Kurt Busch in 2002, Sterling Marlin in 2001 and Bobby Labonte in 2000.

Jimmie Johnson

Basically, a Chase driver gets one mulligan. One bad finish isn't going to kill their chances.

But none of the drivers who would have won the title since 1999 had more than one bad finish.

As you probably remember, Johnson's engine let go at Talladega last fall, and he finished 34th. Busch was 31st at Kansas in 2002, Marlin was 34th at Phoenix in 2001. Labonte was 20th at The Rock in 2000.

Even a 40th-place finish doesn't mean your chances are history.

In 1994, Dale Earnhardt was 40th after a blown engine at Phoenix, and he still beat Mark Martin over the last 10 races, even though he won only once.

Elliott Sadler

Sadler is certainly not the favorite to win the title -- he is not even among the top four favorites -- but his record this year certainly suggests that he will be less than 75 points behind the leader after the year is over.

Sadler has been held under 100 points for a single race this season only five times. Of the drivers in the Chase, only Jeff Gordon is as good at avoiding bad finishes.

Turn 2 at Dover is one of the most difficult turns in NASCAR -- it tightens up just as drivers are jockeying to get into line for the 1,000-foot backstretch.

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Accidents happen in a flash at Dover, where drivers need only 24 seconds to travel a mile.

This spring, one-quarter of the field was involved in a race-ending accidents, and only five cars finished on the lead lap.

The track's insane speeds also strains engines -- five drivers blew motors in this race last year, including Michael Waltrip, who hadn't had an engine problem in 58 races!

It's sick, really.

Stewart's worse finish at Dover is 11th, and he has scored a top-five finish in nine of 11 starts there.

Parting shot stat: Stewart has completed 4,399 out of 4,400 possible laps at Dover.