Jeremy Mayfield Credit: Autostock

Mayfield strong, Stewart struggles in Dover qualifying

Qualifying for the MBNA America 400 at Dover International Speedway went pretty much according to form for the 10 drivers in the NASCAR Chase for the Nextel Cup. Jeremy Mayfield won the pole and half of the top 10 were in the top 10 once qualifying was over.

CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP •   Inside the Chase •   Superstore: Chase driver gear •   Official Standings •   Expanded access to the Chase on TrackPass

For Mayfield and Tony Stewart, who were involved in Robby Gordon's revenge-motivated mess-up last week at New Hampshire, it was a story of opposing methodology.

Mayfield, who won the pole for the June race here and finished eighth, was second fastest in practice but pulled the trigger on a fast lap that outpaced fellow Chaser Ryan Newman. Stewart, who was 27th in practice, wound up 23rd for Sunday's race.

If you look at recent history, however, Stewart should not be worried. In 11 races at Dover, Stewart's average start is 15.2; his average finish is 4.0. Contrast that with Mayfield, whose average start is 17.4, has just six top-10 finishes in 20 starts here. However, Mayfield has two straight poles and among his seven top-five starts here, five have come since 2000.

Newman was fast, as always here. He was third in practice and wound up second to Mayfield in the final order. His average start is 10.0, but his last five efforts here have been in the top five. He also has a pole and two victories here.

Ryan Newman

Elliott Sadler was the first Ford in line among the Chasers, qualifying fourth after practicing seventh fastest. Dover has not been a great place for the likable Virginian, as he has just three top-10 starts in 12 races. He also has just one top-10 finish in that span.

Matt Kenseth put in another solid performance in qualifying, getting eighth position after practicing fifth. His 12 races here have resulted in two poles, but one came when rain washed out qualifying and they lined up on points. He did much better than his average start of 18.2, and he is usually around at the end, logging six top-10 finishes. His best was a second in the June 2000 race.

Jimmie Johnson, who swept both 2002 races here, was ninth in qualifying, which is exactly where he practiced. In five races, Johnson has started in the top five twice, which resulted in finishes of 38th and eighth, and in his two victories, he started 10th and 19th, respectively. Johnson's average start here is 10.4, so he's right on the historical marker.

The June winner, Mark Martin, wound up 12th in qualifying, slightly worse than his 10.1 average start. Martin was sixth in practice. This is one of the best tracks for Martin, as he has 24 top-10 starts in 36 races and 21 top-10 finishes. Included in those totals are four poles and four victories, so he likes the Monster Mile just fine.

In nine straight Dover races from 1996 to 2000, Martin never started worse than eighth and never finished worse than seventh, including three victories. In the seven races since, he's only started twice in the top 10, but he's finished there four times, including June's victory.

Kurt Busch, co-leader in the points with Dale Earnhardt Jr. and winner last week at New Hampshire, wound up 13th after practicing 18th. He's been in the top 10 at the start of the race five times in the eight races he's run here, but he's only finished once in the top 10 (seventh in the second race in 2002). His average start is 13.6, so he's another one on the statistical mark.

Tony Stewart

Earnhardt Jr. was 16th in qualifying, worse than his career 11.8 average starting position here. He was 17th in practice, so it was a push in that regard. Although he has won here (Sept. 2001), he hasn't exactly set the world on fire. His average finish is 15.0, and he has a 37th-place effort in this race last year. However, he was third behind Martin and Stewart in June, so it's a wait-and-see-which-car-shows-up kind of thing.

It wasn't exactly a banner day for Jeff Gordon, who owns the best average start of the Chasers at 9.8. Gordon was 21st in the lineup after practicing fourth fastest. However, history is on Gordon's side here. He owns two poles and four victories here, although three of them came in 1995 and 1996.

His last score here was in 2001. In his 23 races here, he's started in the top 10 15 times, and finished there 15 times. His average finish at Dover is 11.1.

Stewart is the wild card this weekend. After his crash last week, Smoke will be on the prowl to recover lost ground. If the last race here is any indication, anything can happen at Dover, and none of the other Chasers can match Stewart's performance here over the last five years. Stewart has never finished worse than 11th here, and he has nine top-five finishes and 10 top-10s in 11 starts.

Starting with the second race of the 2002 season, Stewart has finished fifth, fourth, third and second. Will he take that next step up the podium and back into the Chase race? If you look at the numbers, that's a pretty good bet.