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Kurt Busch (left) has never scored a top-10 finish at Lowe's Motor Speedway. Credit: Autostock

Chase Line: Charlotte

October 13, 2004
09:24 AM EDT (13:24 GMT)

  • It's a three-man race. For now.
  • The Chase for the Nextel Cup was designed to give a handful of drivers a shot at the title on the final day.

    But with six races remaining, it's a three-pronged battle.

    Race Line: Charlotte
    Jimmie Johnson 6-1 
    Jeff Gordon 8-1 
    Tony Stewart 8-1 
    Dale Earnhardt 10-1 
    Ryan Newman 10-1 
    Matt Kenseth 12-1 
    Kurt Busch 12-1 
    Elliott Sadler 12-1 
    Jeremy Mayfield 12-1 
    Mark Martin 12-1 

    Jeff Gordon has finished out of the top 10 in two straight races, and that has been enough to put him 79 points back. Gordon has just one top-five in the four Chase races, one less than Dale Earnhardt Jr. and two less than leader Kurt Busch.

    Gordon was hurt at Kansas by his qualifying lap. He started 30th and went down a lap early as Jeremy Mayfield and Greg Biffle set a blistering pace. Only Kurt Busch (who started 22nd) was able to turn a mediocre starting spot into a top 10.

    The starting spot was Gordon's worst qualifying run in nearly two full seasons. He was 39th at Daytona, but that field is not set by qualifying.

  • But Gordon can go on a streak at any time.
  • Gordon has faltered the last two weeks, but the four-time champion has always shown a knack for bouncing back.

    chase4.jpg
    Jeff Gordon

    Gordon had a four-race stretch where he finished 30th or worse three times, and yet, he rebounded with a streak of six straight top-fives, including three wins.

    That streak encompassed a diverse stretch that included a road course, a plate track, a low-banked 1.5-miler, a low-banked miler and a flat 2.5-miler.

    In 2003, Gordon had a late-season stretch where he had just one top-10 in six races, but he averaged a sixth-place finish (with two wins) over the last nine races.

    Clearly, Gordon has the firepower to reel off two straight wins, which will wipe out a 79-point deficit.

  • Busch will be put to the test this weekend.
  • Busch has won three times this year, but none of them have come in 500-mile races.

    CHASE FOR THE NEXTEL CUP

    Of the 10 races this year that have been 500 miles or more, Busch has just two top-fives, although his average finish of those is a very respectable 12.6 (his average finish in the other 20 races is virtually the same).

    But interestingly, Busch has never scored a top-10 finish at Lowe's Motor Speedway, although he did lead 46 laps there two years ago.

    It is worth noting that Busch's runs on the 500-mile tracks have gotten better as the Roush-Yates engine relationship has matured.

  • So Elliott Sadler and Mark Martin are out of it?
  • chase3.jpg
    Elliott Sadler

    Not quite, but almost. Sadler's flip at Talladega cost him nearly 50 points, which would have put him a lot closer to Gordon. And Sadler had a lackluster finish at Dover (20th) while both Busch and Earnhardt got top-10 finishes.

    Sadler is 64 points behind Gordon, which is the biggest margin between two drivers in the Chase.

    Martin's had a great second half, but he's only got one finish better than 13th in the four Chase races. He had a good car at Kansas, but he didn't get great gas mileage like Busch did. That alone cost him a top-five. Instead, he finished 20th.

  • So the points system really isn't all that different?
  • Not really. It's about who can avoid any trouble, and so far, only the top three drivers have been able to do that.

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