Jeff Gordon has gone 11 races without a win. Credit: Autostock

Chase Line: Atlanta

Jamie McMurray's performance since the Chase for the Nextel Cup started has raised a lot of questions -- namely, where would he be had he gotten the 10th spot instead of Jeremy Mayfield?

Jamie McMurray

McMurray has been impressive, no doubt, but McMurray's performance shows us just how much Kurt Busch has been annihilating the field.

McMurray has been good over the six-race span, but Busch has been great.

Busch would have started the Chase with 15 more points than McMurray, and he has scored 113 more points then McMurray since then.

And here's the kicker: McMurray has scored more points during the Chase stretch than anyone except Busch.

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Even so, had McMurray made the Chase, he would have started with a 45-point deficit. With the five top-10s he's had since then, he would be fourth in points, 128 points behind Busch.

Of course, it does not matter, because McMurray didn't make the Chase, but McMurray's remarkable string of top-10s shows how well Busch has done.

Even with McMurray running well, Busch has outclassed him.

There is great irony in that the Atlanta event comes at a time where Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s morale needs a boost.

Race Line: Atlanta Jimmie Johnson 7-1  Jeff Gordon 7-1  Dale Earnhardt Jr. 7-1  Tony Stewart 10-1  Ryan Newman 10-1  Matt Kenseth 12-1  Kurt Busch 12-1  Jeremy Mayfield 12-1  Elliott Sadler 15-1  Mark Martin 18-1

Earnhardt Jr. has had two weeks where nothing went right -- Las Vegas in March, and Martinsville on Sunday.

After Vegas, Earnhardt Jr. surprised everyone with a win next week at Atlanta, and he has got to have a repeat performance on Sunday.

The bad thing about Martinsville was not really the fact that he dropped 101 points to Kurt Busch -- it was that Jeff Gordon caught him for second place. That makes it twice as hard to rally.

Earnhardt Jr. will now have to also deal with the four-time champion instead of merely hoping for problems to occur within the Busch camp.

All of a sudden, there are only four races left. As we saw in Martinsville with Dale Earnhardt Jr., all it takes is one bad gear to cause a 100-point swing.

Kurt Busch

But 96 points is still 96 points. It's a comfortable cushion, especially with the job Busch has been doing at leading laps. Busch even led the most laps on Sunday -- he got the bonus when Kevin Harvick faltered late.

Busch's margin works out to a very convenient 24 points per race. If Gordon wins the final four races and leads the most laps in each, then Busch has to average a third-place finish, as long as Busch led a lap in one of the races.

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But Gordon won't win the final four races. His average finish this year is 11th. At the peak of Gordon's career, he averaged a fifth-place finish, and Gordon is easily capable of pulling that off over the final four.

If Gordon finishes fifth and leads a lap in all of them, then Busch only needs to average a ninth-place finish to win the title, and that is assuming Busch won't lead any laps.

Clearly, Gordon has got his work cut out for him.

The opinions listed here are solely those of the writer.