Jimmie Johnson is gunning for his fourth win in a row. Credit: Autostock

Chase Line: Phoenix

If Kurt Busch was smiling after blowing his engine on Sunday, imagine how happy he was after finding out that Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. also suffered problems.

Busch not only was lucky to escape Atlanta with minimal damage -- he was lucky because his road to the championship didn't get much tougher.

Race Line: Phoenix Jimmie Johnson 7-1  Ryan Newman 7-1  Jeff Gordon 7-1  Dale Earnhardt Jr. 7-1  Mark Martin 10-1  Matt Kenseth 12-1  Kurt Busch 12-1  Tony Stewart 12-1  Jeremy Mayfield 15-1  Elliott Sadler 20-1

Going into Atlanta, Busch only had to average an eighth-place finish over four races to clinch the title. He's now 59 points ahead, meaning he has nearly 20 points per race to play with.

What is ironic about all this is that the media always assumes the driver in second place can win and lead the most laps in the remaining races. In Jimmie Johnson's case, that is definitely a possibility.

Johnson didn't lead the most laps at Atlanta, but he is certainly capable of scoring near-maximum points over the final three races. Johnson, like Busch, is one of those handfuls of drivers who can win anywhere.

Kurt Busch

Until Atlanta, Busch had been outstanding at getting up front and leading laps. Since the Chase started, only two drivers have scored 40 bonus points, and Busch is one of them. Ryan Newman is the other.

Let's say Johnson wins the final three races and leads the most laps in each. That's 570 points. Johnson would win the title even if Busch finished third and lead a lap in each.

Clearly, the title picture is much tighter than 59 points suggests.

Jeff Gordon

But let's be more realistic and say that Johnson will average a fourth-place finish and lead a lap in two of the three races. That's 490 points.

If Busch can average a seventh-place finish and lead a lap in those of the three races, the title would be his if Johnson averages a fourth-place finish.

So we're basically looking an average of 3-4 positions per race between the two.

Here's the scary part. Yes, he can. He almost did last year.

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In 2003, if Darlington had been the next-to-last race of the year, Johnson would have finished 3-2-3, and he led in all three events.

The thing about Jimmie Johnson is that there are certain tracks where he seems to be stronger every time he visits them.

And two of those tracks just happen to be in the next two weeks.

Johnson qualified badly at Phoenix during his rookie year, which prevented him from really running up front, but he led nearly a third of the Phoenix event last year before Dale Earnhardt Jr. passed him for the win with 51 laps to go.

Johnson tested at Phoenix in temperatures that will match what we will see on Sunday (sunny, low 80s).

Darlington is the penultimate race for the first time this year, and Johnson's feel for the track improves with each visit. But so does Busch's.

Busch didn't test at Phoenix, so the team is relying on their phenomenal Loudon car, which swept both races there this year.

It is interesting to note that of the top five drivers in the Chase, only Mark Martin is planning on doing any moonlighting.

Martin is entered in the Busch race, but the other four drivers in the top five are planning on only driving the Nextel Cup event.