Jimmie Johnson could win at Homestead and still not take the Cup title. Credit: CIA Stock Photo

Chase Line: Homestead

So what does Kurt Busch have to do to win the Nextel Cup?

Not many people are picking Kurt Busch to win the title Sunday; most are pointing to either of the Hendrick cars.

Race Line: Homestead Jimmie Johnson 5-1  Jeff Gordon 7-1  Mark Martin 9-1  Ryan Newman 10-1  Tony Stewart 12-1  Dale Earnhardt Jr. 12-1  Kurt Busch 12-1  Matt Kenseth 15-1  Jeremy Mayfield 15-1  Elliott Sadler 20-1

But Busch has the major advantage of being able to control his own destiny. Busch is the only one of the five drivers who can lock up the title with a win or a second-place finish.

We can say that a second-place finish for Busch would lock the title up, because if you are good enough to run second, chances are you'll lead a lap.

In 2004, the second-place finisher has led a lap 65 percent of the time, which means in only 12 races did the runner-up fail to lead a lap.

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Happens more often than you think.

And it's not just a first-half thing, either, because the runner-up failed to lead a lap six times in the first half of the season and six times in the second half.

Busch can also win the title if he finishes third and leads the most laps.

Busch is more likely to finish fifth. Then what?

Kurt Busch

Busch has fewer victories than anyone else in the top four in the standings, and he has not won on a high-banked speedway this year.

Busch only has one career win on a high-banked 1.5-mile track.

If Busch manages to finish fifth and lead a lap or fourth without leading a lap (160 points), he's still in pretty good shape, because Johnson would have to win the race (185 points) or finish second and lead the most laps (185 -- 175 for second place, five points for leading a lap plus five more for leading the most laps).

Wait, why is he more likely to finish fifth?

Because Busch is much better on short tracks and lower-banked, 2-mile tracks. Busch is decent at 1.5-mile tracks, but he only has one top-five at a 1.5-mile track in 2004, and it was a fourth-place finish at Charlotte last month.

Busch has improved at the 1.5-mile tracks as the season has worn on, because he has scored top-10s in two of the last three races on the 1.5-milers.

So what does Jimmie Johnson have to do?

Johnson has to:

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• Finish first and lead the most laps -- if Busch finishes second and fails to lead a lap.

If Johnson wins and leads the most laps, Busch only has to finish second with a lap led, or third with a lap led.

Johnson has won four of the nine Chase races, but strangely, he didn't lead the most laps in any of them.

• If Johnson finishes fifth or better and leads a lap while Busch fails to finish ninth or better, Johnson wins the title.

So what does Jeff Gordon have to do?

Gordon has to:

• Finish first and lead the most laps, plus:

• Busch finishes third and fails to lead a lap.

Obviously, if Gordon wins, Johnson will finish second or worse, and the title is Gordon's.

So Jimmie Johnson and Jeff Gordon are tied?

Jeff Gordon

Yeah, as long as both run in the top five.

If Kurt Busch blows his engine 50 laps in like he did at Atlanta, then it'll be a head-to-battle between Gordon and Johnson, because they are only separated by three points.

The two probably couldn't be more evenly matched. Gordon has more Bud Poles and top-10s than Johnson, but Johnson has more wins and more top fives.

So what does Dale Earnhardt Jr. have to do?

Earnhardt Jr. has to:

• Finish first and lead the most laps, plus:

• Busch finishes 15th or worse, Johnson finishes 10th or worse and Gordon finishes ninth or worse.

So what does Mark Martin have to do?

Pray. Just kidding. Stranger things have happened.

Martin has to:

• Finish first and lead the most laps, plus:

• Busch finishes 19th or worse, Johnson finishes 13th or worse, Gordon finishes 12th or worse and Dale Earnhardt Jr. finishes second or worse.

Johnson has been the best driver on intermediate tracks.

It's not even close, really. Track records are, I admit, a little overrated, but tracks are also pretty specialized. For instance, Kurt Busch and Dale Earnhardt Jr. tend to be better short-track drivers than the rest of the field.

Jimmie Johnson

And Jimmie Johnson has been better at any in the intermediate speedways, namely, the nine tracks that measure between 1.3 and 2 miles in length.

In 2004, Johnson has averaged a ninth-place finish on these tracks, which is remarkable considering his engines blew at Michigan and Kansas.

So get this: There have been 14 races on the intermediate tracks in 2004, and half of the time, Johnson has scored either a runner-up finish or a win.

How are the rest of the drivers at the intermediate tracks?

Pretty good, but not near as impressive as Johnson:

• For the 14 intermediate races in 2004, Busch has averaged a 13th-place finish with just one top-five and no wins.

• Martin has a 14th-place average with five top-fives, including three runner-up finishes.

• Gordon has a 14th-place average finish with six top-fives, including a win (Fontana).

• Earnhardt Jr. has a 16th-place average finish with three top-fives, including a win (Atlanta).