Some of their fellow competitors believe that either Jeff Gordon or Jimmie Johnson will emerge as the first Nextel Cup champion. Credit: Autostock

Competitors split on who will emerge as champ

Five drivers mathematically alive heading to Homestead

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- Someone is going to walk away from Homestead-Miami Speedway with the 2004 Nextel Cup championship. The big check will come later, but these guys don't race for checks.

They race for respect, for trophies, for championships. The other stuff is gravy, even if it is a lot of gravy.

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Kurt Busch has the inside track on the 2004 title, even if it is a narrow lane. Busch is 18 points ahead of Jimmie Johnson and 21 points ahead of Jeff Gordon.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. (minus-72) and Mark Martin (minus-82) are close enough to make some noise, but that's about it. For Junior or Martin to win the title, the three drivers ahead of them will have to have trouble -- all of them.

So who will reign at the end of this weekend?

Let's ask some of their fellow competitors.

"It's going to be pretty exciting for the top three especially, and even for four and five," rookie Kasey Kahne said. "I'd have to say Jimmie Johnson has an edge, but it could be Jeff Gordon or Kurt Busch just as easy. These guys are all on top of their game right now.

Kurt Busch leads the pack heading to the finale. Credit: Autostock

"Jimmie is up front every single week and they tested well down there. The No. 24 was good, too, so it'll be real interesting."

Kahne, of course, is hedging his bets. Anything can happen in Sunday's Ford 400, and that's something no one can predict.

Brian Vickers, a Hendrick Motorsports teammate to Gordon and Johnson, had a similar sentiment to Kahne.

"I'm on the fence right now," Kahne said. "Jimmie and his team definitely have the momentum going into Homestead. On paper, I have to believe they're the favorite, but I wouldn't rule Jeff out of the equation. He's hungry for another championship, no doubt about it.

"Jeff's strong suit is his experience. He's already won four championships. In the end, I guess I can't pick a clear-cut favorite."

It would be difficult for anyone to do the same. Busch has seen his lead diminish in recent weeks, but he's still leading. Johnson has won four of the last five races, but even a victory doesn't guarantee a championship. And though four-time champion Gordon has been through the title wars, that experience may not matter.

"My money has been on Jeff Gordon all season but I think he has some competition with Jimmie Johnson and Kurt Busch," fellow Chaser Elliott Sadler said. "This playoff system has really made for exciting racing, and the Ford 400 should be sold out. I think it's cool that this championship is going to come down to the final lap."

In the end, Jamie McMurray said, it will be Johnson's.

"He's on such a hot streak right now," McMurray said. "Those guys know how to win right now. I'm betting against Kurt Busch. It seems like the last two or three races he's struggled a little bit, and it just doesn't seem like that team is on the top of their game like the 48 and 24."

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Not so fast, Matt Kenseth said. Well, of course he would say that, since he is teammate to Busch at Roush Racing.

"I think it would be awesome if Kurt or Mark could win a second championship in a row for Jack this year after mine in 2003," Kenseth said. "We've all worked hard, but those guys have continued to distinguish themselves over these last 10 events, and I just hope it works out for them."

While McMurray is correct about Johnson's performance, he acknowledges the role luck could play.

"Kurt didn't have a very good car (at Darlington), but they used some good pit strategy and the pit crew got him up front, and he was able to stay there," McMurray said. "Every year you have guys that run well. It has nothing to do with how tough the competition is. If guys don't have a little bit of luck on their side it's hard to do well in this sport.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. sits fourth in the championship standings.

"Look back at some of the races. Jeff Gordon has been fast every week, but I can look back at him breaking a gear at Atlanta and having a bad finish. You've just got to have a little bit of luck on your side."

In the end, only one driver will be crowned champion.

Kyle Busch has a perspective unique to any other driver in regards to the Chase. His brother, Kurt, is the points leader, but Johnson and Gordon are his teammates at Hendrick.

It's almost unfair to ask Kyle who will win.

"Man, that's a tough question," Kyle Busch said. "It's difficult, because my brother is family, obviously, so I have to root for him. But Jeff and Jimmie are my teammates, and that makes them family, too. I'd love to see my brother win his first championship, but I'd be excited for Hendrick Motorsports to see Jimmie or Jeff win it."

In the end, Kyle can't pick just one.

"I'm pulling for all three of them," Kyle Busch said. "I hope one of them is able to bring the trophy home this weekend. Whichever one gets it, that's the way it was meant to turn out."