Dover is a tight, tough place to race for 400 miles. Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Preview: Dover

Dover is possibly the cleanest track on the circuit, with three drivers sweeping victory lane in the last five years. In the two years when there was not a sweep, three drivers came close to making this statistic perfect.

Dover is a track given to streaks. In a recent issue of Racing Fan magazine, Dover was showcased as the track on which the second most season sweeps have taken place. On nine occasions in the 34 years when the track has hosted two events, a single driver has won both the spring and fall races for a percentage of 26.5.

Ryan Newman has won three of the last four races at Dover. Credit: Autostock

The only track that has seen a higher percentage of sweeps is Bristol Motor Speedway, a half-mile concrete high-banked track that behaves a lot like Dover.

This one-mile Monster has been swept three times in the last five years, with Young Guns performing a feat that was once largely reserved for veterans. In his second season, Tony Stewart took both events. Two years later, rookie Jimmie Johnson swept both races and Ryan Newman followed suit in 2003.

During the two years when the track was not swept by a single driver, three drivers came close. In 2001 Jeff Gordon won the spring race and came as close as fourth in the fall. That same season the fall winner, Dale Earnhardt Jr. posted a third-place finish in the spring.

Last year Mark Martin inherited the lead late in the spring race when rookie Kasey Kahne ran over fluid on the track and destroyed his car. To prove that victory wasn't a fluke, he backed it up with a runner-up finish in the fall.

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The only driver to defy this pattern in the last five years has been last fall's winner Newman, but he was slowed by crash damage in the spring event and did not get a chance to show how strong he would have been.

Rhythm

One reason Dover is given to streaks is because it is a rhythm track. The cars circle this circuit in about 23 seconds, averaging a speed in excess of 160 miles per hour. Lap after lap, centrifugal force glues the car to the pavement subjecting the drivers to immense G-forces.

To survive Dover, a driver learns to hit his marks by rote. The grooves are narrow, and if he misses a mark by the narrowest of margins, he will hit the wall with extreme force; drivers don't miss very often at Dover, because even with SAFER barriers installed, the walls here are very hard.

Favorites

The USAC open-wheel series competes on a number of high-banked tracks throughout the Midwest, and so the two former USAC favorites from last week make a command performance at Dover. Accustomed to powering into the corners at high rates of speed and allowing centrifugal force to cement the car to the track, Stewart is nearly perfect at Dover. In his 12-race career on this track he has never finished worse than 11th and has only finished outside the top-five on three occasions (a seventh in June 2001 and a sixth last fall).

In order to finish first, a driver must first finish the race: Stewart has failed to complete only one lap of the 4,800 that make up the distance of his 12 attempts, and that single race occurred in his first start in 1999 when teammate Bobby Labonte lapped all but one car in the field. Dover is a place where it pays a premium to stay out of trouble. The narrow grooves and tight exits off the corners close up in a hurry when trouble occurs on the track, so the fact Stewart has spent time in the lead in all but two of his starts is another recommendation for his inclusion to your roster.

Newman is another near-perfect driver at Dover. The concrete canyons were traditionally a place to avoid rookies, but as a rookie, Newman swept the top-10. Newman then came back in 2003 to record the third Young Gun sweep in the span of four years.

Last spring Newman was slowed by crash damage after starting the race from the outside pole, and he finished a modest 24th. Feeling he had something to prove after failing in his attempt to threepeat the course, Newman came back in the fall race with a vengeance to lead 325 of the 400 laps (81 percent) in a show of domination for which he has become known at Dover. In capturing his other two victories he led 134 laps on average.

Darkhorses

The driver with the best average finish during the last three years on the high banks tracks of Dover, Bristol, and the newly configured Homestead-Miami Speedway is not Stewart or Newman, however. That driver is Jamie McMurray.

Brian Vickers found out first-hand about the Monster Mile's mean side. Credit: Autostock

With only one top-five at Bristol in 2003, McMurray has amassed an average finish of 10.1 by earning seven top-10s, nine top-15s, and a worst finish of 24th, which came when he was slowed by crash damage this spring at Bristol. In 11 career starts, McMurray has never failed to finish a race on the high banks and in all but four of those events he has been running on the same lap with the leaders.

At Dover, McMurray's worst finish is 15th, but with a best finish of sixth he is not likely to anchor your roster. He will earn a lot of points this weekend, but is unlikely to improve your salary cap in the process. Treat McMurray like a utility driver this week: if he fits a niche on your roster, add him with confidence, but do not re-arrange any of your marquee drivers to accommodate the No. 42.

By his concrete high banked numbers alone, Kahne would appear to be a sucker's bet. Kahne has never finished in the top-10 in five career starts at Dover and Bristol and he has only one top-20, but those stats belie his strength on this style of track.

Last year in the fall race he worked his way into the lead after starting 12th and was pulling away from the field when disaster struck on lap 381. Barely 20 laps from the checkered flag, he ran over fluid dropped by another car and destroyed his car.

Ray Evernham-led teams have always been strong at Dover, with three consecutive victories to Gordon's credit in the mid-1990s. Kahne's teammate Jeremy Mayfield enters the weekend with a three-race streak of top-10s including a strong runner-up finish in fall 2003. Both drivers will pick up where they left off last year and start the weekend with a great set of baseline notes.

Avoidance Principle

Dover is narrow and tricky. In order to go fast down the straightaways, drivers carry a lot of speed through the center of the corner and are literally regurgitated onto the straights through extremely narrow openings at the end of the corner.

The slightest mistake has major consequences, not only for the errant driver, but several trailing cars. An accident can block these narrow grooves quickly and at 160-plus miles per hour, the field tends to pile in. Twenty-four degrees of banking in the corners, however, makes this a self-cleaning track, and the patient driver knows that debris will end up on the apron if they slow down and wait.

Some drivers have a knack for identifying the eye of the storm, and will back out of harm's way when they see a competitor racing over his head. Some don't have the same instinct, and so the drivers to avoid this week come from those with the most DNFs (Did Not Finish).

Joe Nemechek has crashed out of seven of his last 13 attempts on the concrete high banks and was slowed by crash damage in two other events. Since earning his last high-banked top-10 at Dover in fall 2001, he has averaged a finish of only 33rd and finished on the same lap as the leaders in only one more of the 13 races that followed. A driver is not a threat to win if he is not on the lead lap.

Casey Mears is another crash-prone driver on the concrete high banked tracks. In a nine-race career at Dover and Bristol, he has retired with crash damage four times and been slowed by wrinkled fenders in a fifth event. Like Nemechek, he has finished on the lead lap only once and that nevertheless resulted in a mediocre finish of 21st.

The near top-20 that came at Bristol is his best career finish on this type of course, which contributes to an average finish of only 32nd.

Dan Beaver's fantasy analysis appears weekly on the afternoon prior to Nextel Cup Qualifying. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.