Greg Biffle is no stranger to Michigan's Victory Lane. Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Preview: Michigan

Michigan International Speedway is a race track that has aged well, despite the harsh winters thrown at it year after year. Its wide, smooth surface allows drivers who find multiple lines, allowing them to pass their competitors.

The track on the Nextel Cup circuit nearest Detroit, it's a place where drivers want to perform for the pride of the manufacturers, and more importantly, insure their wind tunnel time is not condensed.

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In the last 10 years, four brands of cars have found victory lane, with Chevrolet taking four trophies, Dodge taking three, and even Pontiac taking a pair before they withdrew from competition.

However, Ford has dominated on this track like no other, with 11 victories, mostly on the strength of Jack Roush, Robert Yates and Roger Penske (before he switched to Dodge).

Is it the brand or the owners that have been so successful at Michigan?

Roger Penske has been just as strong since switching to Dodge with Ryan Newman winning two of the last four races, but with Ford dominating this track so much in the last five years, weight must be given to the other argument as well.

In fact, if one expands the data pool by two years, the numbers are stacked in Ford's favor even more: they won three of the four races held in 1993 and 1994.

Chevrolet hasn't visited Victory Lane at Michigan since Jeff Gordon was the last to do so in 2001.

Because of their record on this track over the last decade, the favorites this week have to come from the Ford camp. Since Jack Roush's team has won half this season's races, the men at the top of the heap should logically be in Roush Racing Fords.

Before developing brake problems at Pocono, Greg Biffle was en route to a fifth consecutive top-10 finish. In his last five races, Biffle won two and finished sixth in two other races giving him more momentum than any other driver in the field.

Over the last 18 races, Biffle has recorded more victories than any other driver in the field, and most of these have come in dominant fashion. Trophies have been won on tracks as diverse as Homestead, Darlington and Dover, but what recommends him most is his record on the unrestricted intermediate speedways.

Mark Martin

At Texas and California, Biffle had the car to beat and the field was unable to do so. In races on the similarly configured mile tracks -- Atlanta and Las Vegas -- he's finished no worse than sixth. Biffle will be looking to avenge his poor finish from Pocono, which will make him an even greater risk for the competition.

Mark Martin has been running so strong in recent weeks, that he is one or two fortunate circumstances away from finding victory lane. Last week, fortune frowned on Bobby Labonte again when he crashed on the first lap of a green-white-checkered finish, and the unintended byproduct of fate's fit of peevishness saved Martin from losing a lap with a blown tire.

His luck at Michigan has not been great in recent events, but if one considers his record at California, a positive pattern becomes clearer. Martin finished second at Michigan last fall and swept the top-10 on the west coast track.

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Martin has one of the best records at Michigan in its history, posting 20 top-10 finishes in a span of 21 races from 1989 through 1998. Normally a record that old would have little merit when handicapping a race in 2005, but Martin has returned to the form of his youth and he is just as strong now as he was in the early stages of his relationship with Jack Roush.

Carl Edwards is one of the best in the business on the unrestricted intermediate speedways. When he passed Jimmie Johnson on the last lap at Atlanta, he staked further claim to his proficiency on the fast tracks. His victory at Pocono last week was less dramatic when he dominated the later stages of the race, but just as effective.

Edwards was 10th in his Nextel Cup debut at Michigan and sixth at California last season, then backed that up with a top-five at California this spring.

If not for his recent spate of bad luck and poor finishes, Matt Kenseth would be considered the favorite to win at Michigan, but his meager pair of top-10s in 2005 may be of greater importance than his recent record at Michigan.

Matt Kenseth

That record is the best of the bunch in recent seasons: Kenseth enters the Batman Begins 400 with a four-race streak of top-10 finishes and a nine-race streak of top-10s. Roush Racing has dominated Michigan in the last three years, winning half the races, and Kenseth's turn came in 2002. In an 11-race career on this track, the worst he has ever finished was 17th.

Likewise, Dale Jarrett would be considered a favorite if not for his 2005 season. In four of his last six attempts at Michigan, Jarrett has finished between first and third, winning the 2002 fall race. He must wonder what went wrong in 2003 when he failed to finish in the top 20 in either event, but he was back in top form last year, sweeping the third position. Watch him closely in practice, and if he or teammate Elliott Sadler have top-10 average speeds, start them with confidence.

Since 1997, Ricky Rudd has finished outside the top-10 far more often than inside that mark. When he found the setup -- at the end of 2000 and beginning of 2001 -- he was nearly perfect and finished in the runner-up spot in consecutive races, but those are two of only three top-10s he has earned in the last 16 events. Since finishing eighth in the spring 2002 race he has finished 24th on average and after finishing 28th or worse in his last three races of 2005 his luck has not turned around.

Jamie McMurray's fourth-place finish at Michigan last fall pales when compared to the pair of sub-35th place finishes he recorded at the end of 2003 and in the first race of 2004. In 2005, McMurray seems to have lost some of the shine off his Chip Ganassi Dodge, while the entire organization goes through a transitional phase. Two of his last three races in 2005 have resulted in finishes outside the top 20 and he is best saved until he starts to string together some more front-of-pack finishes.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.