Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Preview: Daytona

The Pepsi 400 is typically a calmer race than the Daytona 500, with the drivers concentrating on earning points and staying out of trouble. But with four Nextel Cup favorites floundering in recent weeks, the rest of the field smells blood in the water and is anxious to strike.

The key to success at Daytona is clean living and a little luck. Whoever can survive the "Big One" will likely be sitting pretty at the end of the night. When and where the Big One will strike is as unpredictable as the weather. It can erupt at the front of the pack or the middle.

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When a big crash happens at the head of the field, it can swallow up more than half of the cars and its path of destruction is erratic.

In April at Talladega, 25 cars were involved in a lap 132 crash that may have been triggered by an ill-timed bump-draft by Dale Earnhardt Jr. In the ensuing melee, Tony Stewart (who eventually finished seventh) danced through the carnage like Fred Astaire, avoiding disaster, while cars all around him were destroyed. Richard Petty once said he would rather be lucky than good, but when a driver combines both he is impossible to beat.

The Favorites

With DEI and Hendrick Motorsports struggling in recent weeks, it has been more difficult to predict success.

Can Tony finally break through with a superspeedway win? Credit: Autostock

Tony Stewart has never won on a superspeedway, but has been the wingman five times in a 26-race career, most recently at Talladega in April. There, he tried to pass leader Jeff Gordon, but even with an aerodynamic push from Michael Waltrip he could not quite slip past.

Stewart led the most laps in the Daytona 500 this year, but was shuffled out of the draft in the closing laps. That happened again at Michigan International Speedway. Stewart finally broke the spell at Infineon Raceway, where he won despite racing with one hand on the shifter in the closing laps.

Kurt Busch is currently on a four-race streak of top-10s on superspeedways. Three of these have been top-fives and none have been worse than seventh. At Daytona, he has finished seventh or better in four of his last five attempts. Like Stewart, he is waiting for his first big track win.

If Hendrick finds the front of the pack in the Pepsi 400, they are more likely to do so with the junior members of their stable. Brian Vickers and Kyle Busch have carried the banner for the organization in recent weeks while Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have struggled. Daytona is one of the easiest tracks on which a driver can secure his first victory: 15 drivers have broken through on this track, with Biffle and Waltrip as the most recent two newbies.

While many drivers never won more than a handful of races after securing their first at Daytona, others like Bobby Isaac, Pete Hamilton and Sterling Marlin went on to superstardom. Even though Daytona has been kind to first-timers, rookies traditionally find it difficult to secure partnership in the draft; but with the rapid influx of young drivers, the veterans have little choice but to help the younger mates to the front.

Dark Horses

The DEI duo -- Dale Earnhardt Jr. and Michael Waltrip -- has pretty much ruled superspeedways for the past few years. Hendrick teammates Jeff Gordon and Jimmie Johnson have come along recently to threaten their dynasty. Between them, three of these four drivers have won 12 of the last 13 superspeedway events.

One would imagine that these four drivers would be the odds-on favorites to pace the field again this weekend; but a combination of missed setups, broken parts, and bad luck has each just hoping for a decent finish. Gordon's stellar record on road courses did not save him from transmission problems at Infineon. The desire for a good finish did not propel Earnhardt, Waltrip or Johnson into the top 10 either.

Gordon has won the last two events at Daytona, but has been struggling in recent weeks. Credit: Autostock

DEI's luck on the big tracks has taken a turn in the last few races. At Daytona, a track on which Waltrip could do no wrong from 2001 through 2003, the No. 15 has finished outside the top 35 in two of the last three races. The unstoppable Earnhardt was finally caught up in the Big One at Talladega. After bump drafting his way through the first incident on lap 132, he was swept into another accident on the penultimate lap and finished 15th -- outside the top 10 on a superspeedway for the first time in eight events.

Gordon has four victories in the last five superspeedway races, including the last two Daytona events. Johnson has a streak of three consecutive top-fives and has never finished worse than 18th on this track; but Fate can be a show-stopper on restrictor-plate tracks.

Given their expense in the salary cap games, the Hendrick teammates may best be left in the garage for any number of bargain-basement dark horses. Depending on how big the Big One is, a driver running in the 30s, out of the lead draft, may have a better shot at victory than a driver uneasily seated in the top five. Kerry Earnhardt, Johnny Sauter and Boris Said will each be in strong cars capable of running with the lead pack.

Avoidance Principle

The specter of the Big One hangs over the field like a dark cloud. Both 2005 superspeedway races-- the Daytona 500 and Aaron's 499 -- had multiple crashes that wrinkled tons of sheet metal. Three times since the beginning of the 2005 season has an accident of more than half the field erupted, and all three have come in the spring race at Talladega. The Daytona 500 is also more typically crash-marred than the summer edition under the lights; but this race is not immune to mistakes.

Newman has run into lots of bad luck on superspeedways, including this 2003 Daytona crash. Credit: Robert Laberge/Getty Images

The drivers to avoid this week are those who are either unlucky enough or lack that last little instinct to get them out of trouble.

Ryan Newman has been swallowed up by six Big One crashes in the last three years. In those 12 races, his misfortune has come in clumps. In each of the previous three seasons, he has crashed in the Daytona 500 and Aaron's 499 each time only to run clean in the final two big track races. Still, his average superspeedway finish over the last three years is a meager 23rd, and he has not finished in the top 10 since he was fourth in the fall Talladega race of 2003.

Not far behind among the star-crossed is Matt Kenseth. He padded his stats by being swept into both Big Ones at Talladega, bringing his total count to five accidents in the last twelve races. His tally might yet be worse, but with three blown engines in the last two years on the big tracks, he hasn't lasted long enough to get into more trouble.

Carl Edwards has only three Big One crashes to his credit, which might not sound too bad if not for the fact that he has only started three superspeedway races in the Nextel Cup series. Every race he started on the longest tracks on the circuit has ended in catastrophe.

Dan Beaver's fantasy analysis appears weekly on the afternoon prior to Nextel Cup Qualifying. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.