Fantasy Preview: Indianapolis

Indianapolis is about domination, as nearly one-third of the expected starters have finished in the top 15 about one-third of the time.

On one hand, Indy is an extremely easy race to handicap. In the race's 11-year history, 13 drivers who are expected to be in the 43-car field Sunday have finished in the top 15 in at least 60 percent of their races.

Picking a favorite is not nearly as challenging as deciding which of these 13 drivers may experience one of their infrequent frustrations.

Almost Perfect

• Jeff Gordon: nine top-15s, seven top-5s, and four wins in 11 starts
• Dale Jarrett: eight top-15s, seven top-10s, and two wins in 11 starts
• Bill Elliott: 10 top-15s and nine top-10s in 11 starts
• Kevin Harvick: four top-15s and three top-10s in four starts
• Rusty Wallace: 10 top-15s and nine top-10s in 11 starts
• Tony Stewart: five top-15s and three top-10s in six starts
• Jamie McMurray: two top-10s in two starts
• Kasey Kahne: one top-five in one start
• Kurt Busch: three top-10s in four starts
• Bobby Labonte: eight top-15s and five top-10s in 11 starts
• Mike Skinner: four top-15s and three top-10s in six starts
• Terry Labonte: six top-15s in 11 starts
• Dale Earnhardt Jr.: three top-15s in five starts
• Morgan Shepherd: four top-15s and three top-10s in four starts *
* Shepherd failed to make his last two attempts.

The downside of domination is that it is such a blow to both the driver and his fantasy owner when one member of your team stumbles, because at Indy your competition may just have hit on the perfect balance.

Jeff Gordon

Youth vs. Experience

Indy is a track that rewards both experience and enthusiasm equally. In the early years the race was won by raw youth and grizzled determination. (Jeff Gordon -- in his second year -- and Dale Earnhardt -- in his 17th full season -- won the first two events.)

Since then, however, experience has been much more highly valued: Six of the 11 races have been won by drivers competing in at least their 10th season, versus only two for drivers competing in their first three years. Gordon runs the gamut, winning in his second season of competition in 1994 and his 12th year in 2004.

The top 10 has been controlled by experienced veterans: on average five of the top-10 came from drivers with 10-plus years of experience versus only two that have gone to Young Guns. In 2003 Bill Elliott (in his 23rd season), Mark Martin (20th), Rusty Wallace (20th), Jimmy Spencer (15th), and Jeff Gordon (11th) led the pack.

Last year, however, the equilibrium shifted: three double-digit drivers finished in the top-10, three drivers with less than four years of experience, and four drivers with four to nine years of experience provided the perfect balance of youth and experience.

Dale Jarrett

The Favorites

In terms of success at Indy, Gordon is head and shoulders above the rest of the field, which is quite a statement in light of the fact that nearly one-third of the field has a nearly perfect record at the Brickyard.

Gordon's four victories at the track are double that of any other driver and they have been earned the length of his career. In his sophomore year Gordon backed up a victory that had been stolen by fuel mileage and tire management in the Coke 600 with a dominant run in the inaugural Brickyard 400. Four years later he became the first repeat winner in 1998 and his two subsequent victories came three years apart. Last season he started 11th, but found the lead early to pace the field for 124 of the 161 laps.

Gordon has failed to lead a lap at Indy on only two occasions in his 11-race career, and when he is incident free, he finishes a race sixth or better. That makes him nearly perfect, because he has been caught up in on track incidents only twice.

It has been a while since Jarrett could be considered a favorite before the weekend activities began, but like Gordon he has been nearly perfect at Indy. Jarrett failed to finish only race at this track, and he limped home in 2003 to a 39th-place finish for a second disappointment, but every other attempt has ended with a result of 16th or better. The lows have been a little worse than Gordon's but the highs have been just as lofty.

Jarrett is the only other driver in the field with more than a single victory, winning in 1996 and again in 1999. Last year he came one position shy of tying Gordon for the most trophies; finishing second, had he denied Gordon the victory, both drivers would enter this weekend with three bricks (the distinctive trophy for Indy) on their mantle. Jarrett has a history of stealing Gordon's thunder: when he won in 1999 it came on the heels of Gordon's '98 victory that made him the first repeat winner, a distinction the driver of the No. 24 was able to keep only that one year.

Stewart recently purchased his childhood home in Rushville, Ind., for a place to escape from the demands of stardom, and he enters the race with a ton of momentum on his side. Stewart has never finished worse than 17th at Indy. His best finish is only fifth, which he recorded in 2000 and again in 2004, but he won three of the last five races and believes himself capable of earning his first brick in front of the hometown crowd.

Ryan Newman

Darkhorses

Newman has not been nearly as dominant as fellow Hoosier Stewart, but he has as much enthusiasm on his side. In a short four-race career Newman has finished 31st twice, but his other two results have been 11th and fourth. Newman enters the race with a pair of top-10s and deserves to be watched closely.

Newman is guaranteed to start near the front: he has qualified seventh or better in every attempt. However, this weekend the field has four practice sessions scheduled instead of the traditional three, and that extra seat time will allow Newman to put a little more emphasis on racetrim.

Elliott is listed as a darkhorse this week because he is campaigning for a part-time team. Often drivers who are not fixated on points might retire if they experience trouble on the track at a lesser course, but that will not be the case this week.

Elliott enters the week as one of Indy's nearly perfect drivers. The first time he set a wheel on the track in 1994 he finished third and he swept the top-10 in his first four starts. Elliott has finished outside that mark only twice in his career and worse than 12th only once. In 11 races he has failed to complete only one lap out of the 1,761 that make up the distance.

The greatest recommendation for Elliott, however, comes not from his 2002 victory, but from the ninth-place finish he earned last year in the research and development Dodge fielded by Ray Evernham.

Ricky Rudd

Avoidance Principle

Indy is not overly kind to darkhorse. The drivers listed above each have a lot to recommend their start and some are listed as dark horses only because they are not truly favorites, but this track will reveal very few surprises when the checkered flag waves.

Last year Kasey Kahne was one of three rookies or second-year drivers to crack the top-10, but he already had several runner-up finishes to his credit, while Greg Biffle and Jamie McMurray (the other two Young Guns) had trophies on their mantle.

Even drivers like Steve Park and Jimmy Spencer -- whose names are no longer household words -- drove for teams that were either consistently strong at this track, or perennial powerhouses like DEI.

The drivers to avoid, therefore, could literally be described as the remaining two-thirds of the field who are not listed among the nearly perfect. Of course that would be a cop-out of mammoth proportions (an avoidance of the Avoidance Principle as it were), and there are a handful of drivers with less success than others at Indy.

Ricky Rudd was cruising along at the Brickyard in 1997 when he earned his third top-15 in the first four races by taking his self-owned team to Victory Lane. He finished 31st the following season, and in the seven races that followed his banking of the brick, he has finished in the top-15 only once more: that isolated highlight came back in 1999, more than five years ago. In his last five races, Rudd has finished outside the top-20 four times and the top-25 thrice.

Sterling Marlin is another veteran driver with a page in his scrapbook dedicated to Indy: he finished in the runner-up spot in 2001, but that near victory is his only fond memory of this place. That second-place finish is overshadowed by results outside the top 25. In fact, Marlin has finished outside the top 25 six times in his 11-race career and four of these have come in his last five attempts.

Mark Martin may not deserve a red flag waved vigorously over his head, but he deserves a word of caution. As one of the near perfect drivers, he has a long history of success (a streak of five consecutive finishes sixth or better from 1995-99), but he has followed that up with only one more top-10 in the midst of a string of four results outside the top 20.

Dan Beaver's fantasy analysis appears weekly prior to Nextel Cup qualifying. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.