Back-to-back top-10 finishes at Richmond gives 10th-place Jamie McMurray hope that he stay in the Chase. Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Preview: Richmond

Bristol and Talladega are considered wild-card races, in which anything can happen, but Richmond has been the most kind to dark horses.

Parity has limited the number of streaks on any given track in recent years, but it has been principally difficult on the short tracks in general and Richmond in particular. Proof is found in the fact that only two drivers enter the weekend with back-to-back top-10s at Richmond, and neither of them finished in the top five in either.

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Greg Biffle finished eighth last fall and sixth this spring; Jamie McMurray was ninth and 10th in his last two outings. For both of these drivers, this represented their first and second career top-10s on this track.

Likewise on all the short tracks combined only two drivers have managed to post back-to-back successes. Tony Stewart finished second at Richmond in the spring and followed it up with an eighth at Bristol. Biffle was sixth at Richmond and third at Bristol.

Since both of these drivers are two of only three to come into the weekend with three consecutive top-10s from the 2005 season, they are the closest things to a favorite you will find.

One and done

One reason for the scarcity of streaks on this track is that it has been overly kind to dark horses and first-time winners.

Ryan Newman, left, and Jeff Gordon each have had success on short tracks, still ... Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Power Ranking Short Tracks (last three years) Driver Power Avg. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 8.88 Jeff Gordon 9.13 Rusty Wallace 10.20 Ryan Newman 10.61 Kurt Busch 11.13 Matt Kenseth 11.98 Jimmie Johnson 12.43 Tony Stewart 12.94 Kevin Harvick 13.98 Bobby Labonte 15.59 Jamie McMurray 16.23 Sterling Marlin 17.04 Greg Biffle 17.11 Jeff Burton 17.60 Mark Martin 18.29 Elliott Sadler 19.31 Jeremy Mayfield 19.32 Ricky Rudd 19.39 Kasey Kahne 20.52 Terry Labonte 22.30 Dale Jarrett 24.73 Michael Waltrip 24.98 Travis Kvapil 25.20 Mike Bliss 26.19 Jeff Green 27.12 Joe Nemechek 27.71 Mike Wallace 27.74 Ken Schrader 28.52 Dave Blaney 28.67 Kyle Busch 29.00 Brian Vickers 29.81 Robby Gordon 29.93 Carl Edwards 29.95 Scott Riggs 30.00 Jimmy Spencer 32.74 Kyle Petty 33.00 Johnny Sauter 34.50 Casey Mears 35.21 Scott Wimmer 35.44 Tony Raines 36.25 Bobby Hamilton Jr. 36.53 Hermie Sadler 38.54 Stanton Barrett 42.13 Morgan Shepherd 43.50 Wayne Anderson 44.00 Carl Long 44.17 Jeff Fuller 45.00 POWER AVERAGE The Power Average is the average finish over the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five, and in the top-10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, and so on. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position (i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish).

Five drivers earned their first Cup victory on this track; most recently Tony Stewart in his rookie season of 1999 and Kasey Kahne this spring in his sophomore year. Stewart went on to become one of the sport's superstars and Kahne is destined to follow suit.

Darrell Waltrip, Mark Martin and Dale Earnhardt Jr. lead a contingent of drivers who earned their second victories here, which leaves the field wide open for another Young Gun to not only run well, but also take the checkers.

Twelve drivers, a full one-quarter of the field, have earned one -- and only one -- top-10 at this track. Long-shot drivers such as Jeff Green, Mike Wallace and Robby Gordon have graced the front of the pack on a single occasion, but also ones who would normally be expected to rack up several top finishes like Kurt Busch and Jimmie Johnson.

With this weekend featuring impound rules once again, practice speeds will provide little help in determining your roster, and without a clear-cut trend in terms of average finishes, handicapping this race is little more than the roll of a dice.

The favorites

The handicapper of the race must stand in the breach, however, and determine who will run strong. The fantasy owner must still find the perfect mix.

Last week Stewart was predicted to break his long streak of top-10 finishes and he invalidated that prophecy in glorious fashion by running at the head of the pack for most of the day and nearly winning. Instead, he finished fifth on a track where he has struggled in the past couple of years.

Don't make the same mistake of overlooking him this week, because Stewart has the opportunity to go flat out one last time before the points begin to count for him again in the playoffs.

After earning his first career victory at Richmond in 1999, Stewart embarked on a streak of six consecutive top-10s highlighted by two more victories. Only Rusty Wallace has more on this track among active drivers.

With 11 consecutive top-10s to his credit, Stewart enters the weekend with more momentum by far than any other driver, and this is the longest streak anyone has been able to accumulate all year. It doesn't appear to be running out anytime soon.

Biffle is the only driver who enters Richmond with streaks at the track, on short tracks combined, and during the last three weeks. What makes his designation as a favorite most interesting, however, is the fact that before earning the first of his two consecutive top-10s at Richmond, his best result was merely 17th.

Biffle's success at Richmond should not have come as a complete surprise. While Stewart was winning the first of three Cup races in 1999, Biffle earned his first Richmond trophy in the Craftsman Truck Series. His second start on this track in that series, he never finished worse than third in three total attempts. His first two races in the Busch series resulted in accidents, but as soon as he completed the distance, he added two more top-10s in that division.

In this sport there is no substitute for momentum, and Biffle has it. In addition to his pair of top finishes at Richmond, Biffle has finished at the front of the pack on another short track at Bristol. In fact, Martinsville is the only short track on which he has struggled in recent memory.

Dark horses

The list of drivers with only one career top-10 at this track is a long one and as soon as a driver removes his name from it another steps up to take his place.

Kasey Kahne earned his first Cup victory in the spring race at Richmond. Credit: Autostock

Since 2002, the dark horses have competed for powerhouse teams and in lightly funded equipment, which makes this weekend hard to handicap. Green (third) and Dave Blaney (ninth) earned their single success in 2002. Robby Gordon (fourth) overcame a deficit of several laps in 2003 to earn his top-10, while superstar Kurt Busch was one and done with a ninth that year.

In 2004 it was Johnson (second), Mike Bliss (fourth), Mike Wallace (seventh) and Brian Vickers (eighth) who earned an inaugural top-10; all four drivers have failed to back it up yet.

This spring Biffle, McMurray and Michael Waltrip each removed their name from the list by earning a second top-10, but they were immediately replaced by Kyle Busch (fourth), Elliott Sadler (seventh), and the king of the one timers Kahne, who posted a victory as his first top-10.

Biffle and McMurray posted back-to-back top-10s after waiting for their first taste of Richmond success; Waltrip earned his second top-10 two races after the first.

What does this mean for the fantasy owner looking for an advantage against the competition? Do not ignore the drivers who barely tasted the fresh air from the front of the pack. Drivers like Kyle Busch, who only last week earned his career-first victory, and Sadler, who is out to impress the hometown crowd, are likely to repeat at the head of the field.

	Richmond doesn't bode well for Elliott Sadler. Credit: Autostock
	Inside the Numbers at Richmond Driver No. W T-5 T-10 T. Stewart 13 3 5 8 G. Biffle 6 0 0 2 J. Johnson 7 0 1 1 R. Wallace 43 6 21 29 M. Martin 39 1 12 22 Ku. Busch 9 0 0 1 J. Mayfield 23 1 3 6 C. Edwards 2 0 0 1 M. Kenseth 11 1 2 6 J. McMurray 5 0 0 2 R. Newman 7 1 4 5 J. Gordon 25 2 10 16 E. Sadler 13 0 0 1

Since Richmond is kind to first-time winners and dark-horse contenders, Vickers should be considered as driver capable of taking the trophy for the first time on the heels of his teammate's introductory success.

Avoidance principle

Four drivers enter the race with a legitimate chance at earning or losing their slot in the playoffs, and they each need strong showings to qualify.

Matt Kenseth, McMurray, Ryan Newman and Jeff Gordon have the world to gain or lose in 400 short laps, which will require them to go for broke in terms of setups and their engine package.

The problem with going for broke is that all too often that is exactly how the driver is left: crippled with a blown motor or broken with a crash damaged car.

If not for the immense pressures they face, each of these drivers would have something to recommend them on the track: McMurray's two top-10s in the last two race, Kenseth's three top-10s in the last three races of 2005, a victory and four top-fives in seven Richmond attempts for Newman, and a pair of victories for Gordon are much less significant than the rising desperation they feel. Let your competition spend their hard-earned salary-cap dollars on these drivers, while you budget more conservatively.

This week it will pay the most dividends to concentrate on identifying potential dark horses rather than those to avoid; if you feel that a driver is risky, discretion dictates waiting a week until the Chase for the Nextel Cup scenarios have all played out.

Dan Beaver's fantasy analysis appears weekly prior to Nextel Cup qualifying. The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.