Denny Hamlin, who has three top-10 finishes in five starts, could be a late-race factor at Phoenix. Credit: Autostock

Fantasy Preview: Phoenix

After four cookie-cutter races in the last five weeks, it is a welcome diversion for both the drivers and fans to come to a flat track.

On the unrestricted intermediate speedways, much of the critical work that goes in determining who will run fastest is completed before the drivers get to the track. Aerodynamic forces are so vital to the handling characteristics of the cars that the drivers are left with small tweaks to find fractions of a second.

Jeff Gordon

Fantasy Power Ranking Flat tracks, past three years Rank Driver PA* 1. Jeff Gordon 7.31 2. Ryan Newman 7.89 3. Jimmie Johnson 8.36 4. Tony Stewart 9.04 5. Kurt Busch 10.57 6. Denny Hamlin 11.33 7. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 11.39 8. Rusty Wallace 13.28 9. Kasey Kahne 13.88 10. Matt Kenseth 14.11 11. Kevin Harvick 14.25 12. Bobby Labonte 15.42 13. Jeff Burton 16.26 14. Jamie McMurray 17.63 15. Mark Martin 18.09 16. Ricky Rudd 20.21 17. Dale Jarrett 20.26 18. Michael Waltrip 20.49 19. Sterling Marlin 21.02 20. Elliott Sadler 21.11 21. Kyle Busch 21.81 22. Greg Biffle 22.00 23. Jeremy Mayfield 22.81 24. Brian Vickers 23.12 25. Joe Nemechek 23.86 26. Robby Gordon 27.12 27. Jimmy Spencer Sr 27.13 28. Jeff Green 27.70 29. Dave Blaney 28.33 30. Ken Schrader 29.04 31. Mike Skinner 29.92 32. Carl Edwards 30.88 33. Casey Mears 31.08 34. Travis Kvapil 31.33 35. Scott Riggs 32.43 36. Kyle Petty 32.88 37. Mike Wallace 33.61 38. Chad Chaffin 33.75 39. Scott Wimmer 33.85 40. Mike Bliss 34.76 41. Kevin Lepage 36.08 42. Bobby Hamilton Jr. 37.32 43. Stuart Kirby 39.33 44. Morgan Shepherd 41.44 45. Stanton Barrett 42.33 46. Carl Long 44.24 47. Brandon Ash 45.00 48. Jerry Robertson 47.00 * -- The Power Average is the average finish suring the last three years, plus the number of laps spent in the lead, in the top five and in the top 10 expressed as if they were finishing results. For example a driver who has led the most laps receives a hypothetical first-place finish, the driver who leads the second most laps receives a hypothetical second-place finish, etc. This rewards drivers who competed at the front of the pack for the majority of the race, even if an unfortunate event takes them out of contention at the very end of the race. Failures to qualify are credited to the driver as if they were a finishing position i.e. the first non-qualifier is assigned a 44th-place finish.

The flat tracks (Phoenix, Martinsville and New Hampshire) require mechanical balance to navigate the corners. Drivers adjust their cars to rotate in the corners rather than to run fast in a straight line, and the races are won and lost by how they handle the turns. The flat tracks are not "plant-your-foot-and-go" courses, and driver input is more important that the science of wind.

The Phoenix weekend has always been one of the final races of the season, and drivers were forced to approach it differently than most of the other events. Those with points leads to protect did so by de-tuning their cars to insure they would not blow, while those at the bottom of the standings have nothing to lose and race for the win.

The poster child for underdogs, Alan Kulwicki, won his first NASCAR Nextel Cup race on Nov. 6, 1988, PIR's inaugural event, and this has long been a track on which dark horses run strong.

The Favorites

Jeff Gordon has not earned three consecutive top-10s all season, and with a 14th last week at Texas and only two races remaining on the schedule, that statistic will remain intact. His 14th-place finish was a gift of sorts, since it appeared he would finish much worse during the event, but some of what makes Gordon so strong began to slowly re-emerge as the race ran on. For many of Gordon's 73 career victories, his was not the strongest car during the race, but Gordon is one of the best at adjusting his car until it is perfect in the closing laps. He has been unsuccessful this year largely because this trait was lacking in 2005, but after improving on a car that appeared destined for a 20-something finish at Texas, the team's confidence has grown.

Gordon has been nearly perfect at Phoenix in regards to top-15 finishes. In his first ever attempt here in his rookie season, Gordon had handling problems that relegated him to a 35th-place finish. Since that first race, however, he has not finished worse than 17th and all but two of these results were in the top 10. Phoenix is one of only four tracks on which Gordon has not won, and it is the one on which he has the most experience while failing to visit victory lane. The fact he has not won here, however, does not mean he has not run strong. In fact with a result of 9.3 it is his fourth best track in terms of average finishes. At 7.8, Phoenix is his second best speedway, which proves he knows how to make his car turn when the banking is at its least.

The storyline this week will include several drivers who are not in the Chase for the Nextel Cup. With little to lose but pride (and possibly an expensive racecar) drivers in search of momentum to close the season will hang the rear end out in the corners. One of the best in the business at doing so on the flat tracks is Dale Earnhardt Jr., who did not immediately take to Phoenix; his first visit here ended in a 27th-place finish, and his second showing was even worse ( 37th). In 2002, however, he cracked the top 10 with a fifth-place finish and he has never come home worse since. He won back-to-back races in 2003-04 and came back this spring to finish fourth.

Since the beginning of the 2002 season Earnhardt has recorded 12 top-five finishes in 20 flat-track races and sports an average of 8.2 in those events. He runs strong on all three of the tracks with minimal banking, which points toward a versatile setup that can be adjusted to track conditions. Most importantly, however, this team is beginning to gel after the reunification of Earnhardt and crew chief Tony Eury Jr. Junior's back-to-back top-10s at Atlanta and Texas are only the third time this season he strung together more than a single success, and now he has re-acquired a taste for it.

Kurt Busch dominated the Phoenix spring race to a nearly unprecedented level. He led 219 of 312 laps, bettering the field by a wide margin, and his 293 laps in the top-five were also at the top of the list. From green to checkers he was never out of contention, spending every lap of competition in the top-10. Last fall, Busch spent 154 laps in the top-10; in 2003, he was in the lead pack for 254 circuits. Busch not only is predicted to run equally strong this weekend, but also look for him to pad those front-of-pack stats.

Dark Horses

Denny Hamlin made his NASCAR debut at Indianapolis Raceway Park in a Steve Prescott owned Craftsman Truck Series entry in August 2004, barely more than a year ago; he qualified seventh and finished 10th. Less than two months later he made his ARCA debut at Talladega Superspeedway and finished third after starting 17th. He was on Joe Gibbs' radar and started his first Busch race for that organization in November 2004 on the toughest track on the circuit, Darlington Raceway. Hamlin finished eighth in that event, which gave him a perfect top-10 records in his debuts; what was more impressive still was the variety of tracks on which he accomplished this: a short track, a Superspeedway, and a track that defies categorization.

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Hamlin's Cup debut came at Kansas Speedway and he spoiled his record of top-10 debuts, but not before qualifying seventh for the event. He was forced to wait one week to earn his first Cup top-10, on the similarly configured 1.5-mile track at Lowe's Motor Speedway. His second Cup top-10 came in his third career start at Martinsville, and with only five races under his belt Hamlin has three top-10s with another startling run last week at Texas. Phoenix is similar to Martinsville -- the flat half-mile oval on which Hamlin cut his teeth in the late model stock car ranks -- and his experience on that track gives him his best opportunity to finish in the top-five. Earlier this week Hamlin was named as the permanent driver of the No. 11 FedEx team, and he is an odds-on favorite to reward the teams' confidence with a strong finish.

The Hendrick Young Guns are primed to run strong at Phoenix. This is a track that always has been kind to Hendrick Motorsports, with 25 top-10 finishes spread across virtually all his drivers -- even Wally Dallenbach, who ran for Rick for a brief period in 1999. The No. 5 Chevrolet won here in '94, with Terry Labonte at the wheel and the No. 25 came home second in '90 with Ken Schrader twisting the wheel, which means the teams have performed well in the past.

Brian Vickers started out strong at Phoenix, qualifying on the front row in a pre-rookie warm-up in 2003; he finished 13th. The following season he came back strong with another outside pole-winning qualification before he slipped to 18th. This spring, however, he qualified and ran equally strong by starting and finishing fifth. The flat tracks have not traditionally been his strongest type of track, but after gaining confidence with his Phoenix top-five, he came to New Hampshire to sweep the top-15. If he is still on your roster following Texas, there is little incentive to remove him.

Kyle Busch has only one Phoenix start, but he made the most of it. Busch qualified in the back half of the pack and slowly worked his way into the top 15 before the mid-point of the race. Busch is a rookie, but he showed patience this spring; and although the flat tracks may not have as much speed as the unrestricted intermediate speedways a driver can still get into trouble in the tight corners. Late-race pit strategy put Busch in a spot to capitalize on track position, earning him an eighth-place finish, and if he runs with as much maturity this weekend as last, he will duplicate that feat.

Casey Mears

Avoidance Principle

Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson are busy looking for one another in their mirrors; if they don't watch out phenom Carl Edwards will disappear off their front bumper and steal the Nextel Cup trophy. Both drivers have strong records on the flat tracks -- one doesn't get in a position to win the championship without running strong on every type of course -- but their agenda is different from yours this week. Stewart knows that unless he makes a mistake, his 38-point lead is sufficient to allow him breathing room in the finale at Homestead; Johnson also knows that a single bobble by his Chevrolet will eliminate him from competition, and both drivers are points racing; NASCAR's equivalent of a prevent defense will not earn you much at the race's end.

Johnson has run consistently strong at Phoenix, sweeping the top-15, but with only one top-five to his credit in four events his results are skewed to the high side of that range. Stewart won here in his first attempt back in 1999, but that is one of only two top-fives and he has finished outside the top 15 twice in the last three races. As Satchel Page once said: "Don't look back, they might be gaining on you."

Casey Mears' gutsy performance at Texas last week is still fresh in many players minds, but take off the rose colored glasses before setting Phoenix's roster. Not only has Mears failed to earn a top-15 finish on any of the three flat tracks, he has a career best here of only 34th. Mears' misfortunes continue through his career on the flat tracks and in Busch and Cup combined he has a best of only 15th (his only top-15) in 20 attempts. Even in the Indy Racing League, which starts far fewer cars than the stock car series, Mears came home 20th at Phoenix in 2001.