Divided: Half of the Smackers pick Ryan Newman (12) to make the Chase; the others are going with Jeff Gordon. Credit: Autostock

Track Smack: Richmond

The Race to the Chase is down to its final 300 miles. Pick one driver who will fall out of the top 10 and one driver who will get in.

Dave Rodman: Because you're making me pick one -- it's Jamie McMurray -- mostly because he only has a one-point comfort margin. Same deal coming in the other way -- it'll be Ryan Newman because he's right on the verge and has ice water nerves.

Marty Smith: Well, since I just wrote this ... I say Gordon gets in, McMurray falls out. I know the 24 is running like your grandmother with the bad hip, but it's Jeff Gordon. Until he officially misses the cut, I think it's him all the way.

Elliott Gordon: I agree with the McMurray call. He will fall out, but I think Ryan Newman will get back in. He has had a lot of prior success at Richmond.

Duane Cross: OK, I'll take the road less traveled. Carl Edwards goes out early, misses the cut and Jeff Gordon gets in. That's been my thoughts all along, so no need getting on another horse mid-stream.

Elliott Gordon: One thing is for sure -- it is going to take an act of God to remove Matt Kenseth from the top 10. I realize Tony Stewart is stacking up the top-10 finishes, but Kenseth is just on a mission. And then Jack has 50 percent of the field for the Chase. That is insane.

Duane Cross: Roush with 50 percent of the field. ... Let the e-mails begin over how unfair the multi-car team setup is.

Marty Smith: Well, I think, too, that it helps NASCAR realize just how skewed testing is right now, Duane. They plan to change their testing format in '06.

Three out of four Smackers do not recommend Jamie McMurray for the Chase. Credit: Autostock

Elliott Gordon: The real question is: If Carl makes the Chase, what does that say about Jeff Burton? I mean, this is the same car and relatively same equipment as 2004, no?

Dave Rodman: Marty, I don't disbelieve you on the Jeff call, but man they have been -- as Jeff himself puts it, so sucky -- it's hard to use their track record to give them much credibility now.

Marty Smith: You're right, Dave -- 110 percent. No longer is track history an accurate barometer for the 24. But man, I just struggle to believe they won't step up this time.

Elliott Gordon: Marty and I talked about this after the Hokies game. Brian Whitesell moving over to the 25 and 5 teams had an affect on the 24 car, no doubt.

Dave Rodman: California was the last slap in the face, for me. All over the map -- from start to finish and even within runs. And the most astounding thing about it is how brutally honest Jeff has been. It's painful for him, Robbie, Rick Hendrick and all their legion of fans. I bet that's the toughest seat in the stands right now -- a 24 fan. Talk about getting piled on . ... I can only imagine.

Duane Cross: The toughest seat is Junior's fans. At least Gordon's folks can go to Richmond with some hope for making the playoffs.

Dave Rodman: I don't know, DC. I almost feel like the Junior Express is gonna be a week-to-week party, now. Most places, Junior can contend -- and that's all good.

Could the Chase come down to Tony Stewart, left, and Matt Kenseth? Credit: Autostock

Marty Smith: What gets me is that people say JG isn't fit for the Chase. Well, he's won three races in 2005. Wallace, Martin, McMurray -- zero between them. Cup is still as much about consistency as it ever was.

Duane Cross: The only thing separating Jeff and Kevin Harvick during the sucky times is that Jeff isn't turning his back and walking away in a huff.

Elliott Gordon: Tony Stewart -- 11 consecutive top-10 finishes. Hello, momentum!

Dave Rodman: Since the wind changes by the second, I will grant you that. Everyone who makes the Chase is worthy. But although I ain't betting on it, if JG and the 24 makes the Chase, they could go on a tear.

Duane Cross: If McMurray makes the Chase, it'll be a stunning story -- as much as a team like the No. 24 not making the playoffs.

Marty Smith: I picked McMurray in my preseason top 10. It won't be a shock, Duane. But, I also had Kahne, Sadler and Junior. No Wallace or Biffle or Kenseth.

Duane Cross: Ha! I was just about to remind you of that! I remember you picking Mac, but dude -- they've been left for dead (just as Kenseth was), but McMurray has done a remarkable job.

Marty Smith: Man, I was looking back at my preseason top 10, and I even said in there that I'd regret not picking Kenseth. All year that prediction looked spot-on. Now, I look like Mrs. Cleo with an eye patch.

EMAIL Dave MartDawg Elliott Duane

What has been the biggest surprise -- good or bad -- through the first half of the season?

Elliott Gordon: For one, I didn't think Bobby Labonte would have that kind of bad luck. I also didn't think Kasey Kahne would be sitting 20th in the points.

Marty Smith: I had him finishing fourth in the Chase, E.

Elliott Gordon: Well he did get his first victory, which was something on a lot of people's short list for 2005.

Duane Cross: Thinking outside the box -- no Junior, no Gordo, no whatever -- is that Joe Nemechek hasn't strung together a streak of top-10 finishes. The No. 01 team now has put together four top-12s in a row, but I thought they'd run a lot better earlier in the season. I know there's a lot of luck involved, and Nemo's had no good luck to speak of, but you also have to make your own luck at times.

Dave Rodman: Jeff Gordon. I wouldn't have said that earlier in the season -- but to look at the "regular season" as a whole, their overall performance has been so schizophrenic. Surprising doesn't do it justice; shocking is more like it.

Kyle Busch (5) got his first victory last week; can Brian Vickers get his at Richmond? Credit: Autostock

Marty Smith: I have to go with Earnhardt's season. I knew it was a transition year with the crew swap and all, but man, I didn't see that coming.

Elliott Gordon: Do you realize that Brian Vickers has more top-fives and top-10s than both Jeremy Mayfield and Jamie McMurray? Shame they got on this streak so late in the season. Watch out in 2006.

Marty Smith: The 5/25 shop is dialed in right now. Big time. Don't be surprised if they both win before the season is out -- Vickers for the first time and Busch once again.

Dave Rodman: Vickers AND Kyle Busch -- I would say they could out-do Roush's run on the Chase this year, except for two things: I don't see Jack's gang falling off much, and that doesn't account for anyone else. What a brutal deal this has become. At least before, you knew there was only gonna be one champion and everyone else was a loser. Now, you got to go through that agony twice and now, you suffer exponentially for 10 individual races. Before, the season would end and you could go live on a mountain somewhere.

Marty Smith: Hold on ... wait a second ... we're all on the wacky stuff. The biggest surprise of '05 is Kurt Busch going to Penske out of the blue. Bar none. No question. There is no comparison to the shockwave that sent through the industry.

Elliott Gordon: The biggest surprise -- IT IS SEPTEMBER ALREADY!!

Predictions for Richmond

Duane Cross: Go with the guy who has nothing to lose -- Dale Earnhardt Jr.

Elliott Gordon: I am going with a guy with everything to lose -- Ryan Newman.

	It's time for Dale Earnhardt Jr. to have fun again. Credit: Autostock
	And the winner will be ... Predictions for Richmond Smacker Driver Duane Dale Earnhardt Jr. Elliott Ryan Newman Marty Matt Kenseth Dave Brian Vickers Last week's picks Smacker Driver Finish Duane C. Edwards 4th Ryan C. Edwards 4th Marty M. Kenseth 7th Dave J. Nemechek 10th

Marty Smith: Kenseth wins a dogfight with Stewart. They are far and away the hottest two teams right now, along with Biffle.

Dave Rodman: How about a kid who's due to the point of overdone? Brian Vickers.

Elliott Gordon: Well, Kenseth has a good scenario -- win and he is in the Chase, no matter what.

Marty Smith: Yep, the old "control your own destiny" deal. Run well, qualify. Run like crap, start testing for 2006.

Elliott Gordon: Question is: Are things going to get out of hand like last year? Jimmie called drivers idiots, didn't he?

Marty Smith: Richmond? Heck yes. That's the one thing we do know, E. It'll be mass chaos. There will be no friends. No give. Just take.

Dave Rodman: Hear, hear -- massive chaos.

Duane Cross: You better believe it's going to be crazy on the track Saturday night.

Elliott Gordon: Massive sheet metal for eBay auctions.

Dave Rodman: I think as much as it was last year, Saturday night will be a real edge of the seat deal.

Duane Cross: And the release on Monday will herald a record high for TNT's ratings. ... That's becoming akin to death and taxes.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.