Matt Kenseth finished eighth in the inaugural Chase for the Nextel Cup. Credit: Credit: Autostock

Preview: Kenseth

CHARLOTTE, N.C. -- This time of the year, almost every team in Nextel Cup racing figures to be in the Chase for the Nextel Cup when the 27th race on the 2005 schedule rolls around in September.

Of course, almost every team won't be in the Chase.

So how does one sort through all the preseason nonsense and pick a true contender for the Nextel Cup title? For starters, remember it's almost as difficult to pick the winner as it is to actually win it. Who would have predicted Kurt Busch last season?

	NASCAR ACCELERATION •   Know Your NASCAR •   Get your Daytona tickets •   2004 Daytona 500 highlights •   Get TrackPass for 2005

But, undaunted, people try to pick a champion anyway. So remember three things: experience, talent, drive ... and intangibles.

Matt Kenseth, of course, has three of the four. He won the championship two years ago and was in the Chase last year, so he clearly has the experience and the talent.

Drive? You think it's easy to have the title and lose it? Of course he has the drive.

As for the intangibles, well, those are impossible to predict. But to Kenseth, that may be the key to winning the championship.

"I think my team is a top-10 team and I think we have top-10 equipment," Kenseth said. "With that being said, I think there are 25 teams out there that are top-10 teams and have top-10 equipment, so a lot of it has to do with luck.

"I hate using that word, but good racing fortune, not having flat tires at the wrong time, getting wrecked, stuff breaking ... whatever."

Luck ... intangibles ... same difference.

"A lot has to do with how you run every week and to be in the top 10 -- like it's always been forever -- is about consistency and when you can be consistent," Kenseth said. "There are races I can think of where we were running in the top 10 and have a problem at the end and finish 35th.

"Those are the things that take you out of top 10s. You have to have those things go right for you. You saw that with (Jamie) McMurray at the end of the year. He put together a really good streak and was right up there the whole time at the end. They were capable of that all year, but just had problems here and there. That's the main thing."

All-Star excitementMatt Kenseth celebrates victory at Lowe's Sign up for TrackPass now BUY YOUR NEXTEL DRIVER PHONE

So don't ask Kenseth now about his chances for the championship. He knows they are as good as anyone's, given the solidity of his No. 17 Roush Racing team, but who knows what kind of luck he'll have.

Ask him in June.

"I think I'll have a better idea probably around Week 15 or somewhere in that range, whether you're pretty comfortable in the top 10 and whether things are going your way," Kenseth said. "It's weird because when things are going your way you can feel it. You can just feel like you're going to be there and you're going to have a chance at it.

"When things aren't going your way, it doesn't seem like you can do anything right, and it's tough to get it rolling again. There are a lot of teams that are definitely capable of it.

"I think it has to do with how you get the year started. At least for us, that's been true. If we get the year started strong, we usually can carry that out for a good amount of time."

That's what happened last year and what happened the year before, too. In 2004, Kenseth finished ninth in the Daytona 500, won the next two races and finished sixth in Atlanta. Sure, a late-season fade left him eighth in the points, but how many drivers wouldn't want a two-victory year?

	MATT KENSETH •   2004 Stats •   Driver Page •   Ford Driver's Eye •   Gillette Young Guns Challenge

For 2003, Kenseth finished 20th in the Daytona 500, third at Rockingham, first at Las Vegas, fourth at Atlanta ... well, we can just about go on forever, for he didn't finish outside the top 22 until the season's 29th race - and the championship was about wrapped up then anyway.

So, yes, started well seems to be important to Kenseth's fate. And he knows it.

What also makes preseason testing all the more important is a spoiler change, as three-quarters of an inch has been sliced from the cars' rear spoilers. Nextel Cup teams are testing at Las Vegas and California before the curtain is raised on the 2005 season, so getting the combination right at those two tracks is vital.

"This year I think the tests out there are more important than any other year just because the spoiler change, I think, and other template changes are going to be a bigger change than we've seen for quite some time," Kenseth said. "I think it's going to be different enough where those tests are going to be important."

But Kenseth isn't worried. He's confident crew chief Robbie Reiser and the rest of his team have things figured out.

"It seems like everybody is excited, everybody is working good together," Kenseth said. "We have really nice-looking cars. I'm really excited to go to the downforce tracks. Our speedway stuff, we ran better at Talladega than we have ever, I think. We qualified in the top 10 there, and we have that car back here and one new car, so our speedway stuff should be better than what it typically is

"And I think our downforce stuff will be good. All of our cars, although they haven't been on track yet, have been really good in the wind tunnel as far as what we've seen in our company. Last year our cars weren't as good as the 6 and the 16 and some of them other guys. So far that stuff is looking good, and I'm enthused about it."

Of course, almost everyone is enthusiastic this time of year. Can Kenseth translate that into success?

Stay tuned.

→ Click here for 2005 Driver Previews.