Jeff Gordon is 12th in points after a rough night at California Speedway. Credit: Autostock

It's down to one race for Chase 'bubble' drivers

FONTANA, Calif. -- Ten drivers are mathematically in the running for the final four positions in the 2005 Chase for the Nextel Cup, but with one race remaining before the cutoff, the realistic "bubble" for eligible qualifiers shrunk considerably.

Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon and Elliott Sadler; who all competed in the inaugural 2004 Chase, are 11th through 13th, respectively, in the standings after Sunday evening's Sony HD 500 at California Speedway -- with Sadler only 52 points behind 10th-place Jamie McMurray.

Kyle Busch celebrates his first Cup win. Credit: Autostock

Official Results Sony HD 500 Pos. Driver Make 1. Kyle Busch Chevrolet 2. Greg Biffle Ford 3. Brian Vickers Chevrolet 4. Carl Edwards Ford 5. Tony Stewart Chevrolet Complete results, click here Official standings, click here Junior's day endsDale Earnhardt Jr.'s Chase hopes expire with his engine Final lapsKyle Busch wins in a green-white-checkered finish Victory LaneKyle Busch celebrates after his Sony HD 500 win at Fontana Top finishersListen to the top finishers from the Sony HD 500 Sign up for TrackPass now BUY YOUR NEXTEL DRIVER PHONE

As expected, the 10 drivers who came to California in contention for the final three spots in the Chase were involved in eight points position swaps after the race.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. blew the engine in his No. 8 Chevrolet and is mathematically eliminated from the Chase.

Dale Jarrett, Kevin Harvick and Joe Nemechek, who are 14th through 16th, respectively, in the standings, are still mathematically in the running.

But with Jarrett 117 points out of 10th and Nemechek 139 back, it's unlikely enough circumstances could turn in their favor to get any of them into the Chase.

On the other end of the spectrum Jeremy Mayfield, who's seventh in the standings and who won at Richmond a year ago to clinch a spot in the inaugural Chase, need only finish 39th in Saturday night's Chevy Rock & Roll 400 to clinch his spot this season.

Carl Edwards, who remained eighth in the standings after finishing fourth Sunday night, can clinch a spot in the Chase in his first full-time season by finishing 19th or better at Richmond.

From there it gets tenuous. From Matt Kenseth in ninth to Sadler in 13th, there is only a 62-point gap. Jamie McMurray's No. 42 Dodge has only a one-point edge on Newman.

Newman's Penske Racing team fought its No. 12 Dodge all night and ended up 18th, which puts them one point behind McMurray -- who was crushed last season when he missed the Chase by 15 points.

"That's OK -- we've got what we've got right now [and] we had a good test at Richmond," Newman said. "Unfortunately this Sony Dodge Charger didn't run as well as we wanted it to, but it was a good effort.

"We're still alive. We've got our heads just barely below water, but we've got time to pick it back up and get a breath of fresh air."

For his part, McMurray reiterated comments he made earlier in the weekend -- when he was 12th in the standings -- that he refused to get caught in the "Chase mania" until after Richmond, when he'd know for sure what his status was.

"I know throughout the race tonight [the standings] fluctuated huge -- at one point I was 30th on the racetrack [and out of the top 10]," McMurray said. "Last year I was in the deal [Chase] with 10 or 15 laps to go and broke a valve spring or something, and then I wasn't [in].

"I know it's a good story for the rest of the week, but just go on and forget about it."

Gordon probably wishes he could do that. He came to California 10th in the standings, but fell to 12th, 30 points behind McMurray after a wildly fluctuating night. Gordon started sixth but quickly fell from the top 10 and was as low as 33rd.

He rebounded to 21st at the finish, but was none too thrilled.

"We just haven't performed this year [and] we sucked [Sunday] -- that was just pathetic," Gordon said. "It was a hell of a night -- just one of those nights.

"We thought we had it at one time. I don't know if we just got a bad set of tires, over-adjusted or what. We were really looking good and then things just went backward. We struggled back and forth all night."