Kevin Harvick believes that Tony Stewart is the favorite to win the Chase. Credit: Autostock

The Happy Handicapper

Harvick handicaps the Chase for the Nextel Cup

DOVER, Del. -- For the second consecutive year of NASCAR's playoff-like Chase for the Nextel Cup format, Richard Childress Racing's lead driver, Kevin Harvick isn't in the field for the 10-race Chase.

But Harvick's contended for the elite 10-man group each season, and he's raced in NASCAR's premier series for five years, so the driver of the No. 29 GM Goodwrench Chevrolet definitely has the lowdown on the drivers who are contending for the 2005 championship.

Harvick sat down at Dover -- on the eve of the second race in the Chase -- to give his opinion on the strengths and weaknesses of the 10 Chase contenders -- and whom he feels will ultimately be crowned the 2005 Nextel Cup champion.

Jimmie Johnson
5,362 points
Leader

	Inside the Numbers Jimmie Johnson at Talladega Year Start Finish 2002 1 7   1 37 2003 7 15   3 34 2004 8 4   16 37 2005 6 20 Avg. 6 22

Harvick: I think their strength is that they're coming up on some good tracks. Obviously he runs good at Charlotte and they're good on restrictor-plate tracks.

I think the weakness of the whole deal for them is him not having anybody in the Chase with him. There is a lot of attention on (Jeff) Gordon right now and the 5 (Kyle Busch) and the 25 (Brian Vickers) have run better than they have.

It seems like since (Johnson) won the race at Charlotte in the middle of the year (Coca-Cola 600 in May), they haven't really found it -- or they've been missing something.

They haven't really run as well as they had at the beginning of the year -- and the end of last year.

It's all about structure and having the right people in the right places and I think when they moved (director of competition) Brian Whitesell from one thing to another, I think it was definitely an improvement for the 5 and the 25 -- because that's the best they've run in a long time.

And I think it took away from the 24 (Gordon) and the 48, so just from the outside looking in, it just doesn't seem like the 48 is one of those three teams that you'll have to beat.

Rusty Wallace
5,355 points
-7

Harvick: I think that Rusty's strengths are obviously knowing that he's not coming back next year and he's got that taste in his mouth that he wants to go out and win that championship and be the best that he can be at the end of the year.

His mindset going into the year was to finish in the top five, and I think I heard him say somewhere that he's "top fiving them to death," so if he can continue to do that, he might be the dark horse in the whole thing.

I think this year just the few DNFs that he's had (is significant). It seems like in years past he's always run well but he always had a fair amount of DNFs, so it seems like this year they've minimized that.

Ryan Newman
5,350 points
-12

Harvick: His biggest strength, obviously, is qualifying and then starting up front and gaining some bonus points (from leading laps). I just don't think that week in and week out they have the ability to run in the top five every week.

It seems like they have some trouble here and there, and like I say, to win the Chase I think you're going to have to be in the top 10 or top five every week -- without making any mistakes.

Mark Martin
5,341 points
-21

Harvick: Mark is good about everywhere. His experience is probably his biggest strength, and he and (crew chief) Pat (Tryson) get along and he believes 100 percent in his team -- he talks about that all the time.

I think with Mark, it's one of those things where obviously the Roush organization has a lot going for it right now with their cars and their engines they've got going on, that are at the top of their game.

So I think Mark's one of the three to beat. Obviously, I think it's him and (Matt) Kenseth and Stewart are the ones that you have to beat.

Mark is a huge example of what you should be in our sport. He goes out and drives the heck out of the race car every lap in practice, the race and qualifying ---- whatever it may be.

And he's helped get this sport to where it is today. I think he's the guy that everybody's rooting for to win the championship, just for the fact that he hasn't won one before and he deserves to win one.

Tony Stewart
5,339 points
-23

Harvick: I think with Stewart there are several opportunities to win, obviously. He ran good at Loudon (New Hampshire) and he runs really well at Dover. Their restrictor-plate stuff obviously was dominant at Daytona, so he should be good at Talladega.

They seem to have a lot of momentum going into the Chase, so I believe (Tony) is one of the few favorites that there are -- that are going to be week in and week out good in the Chase.

I think that the only weakness he has is that if something steers him in the wrong direction, off the racetrack -- or if something happens on the racetrack that carries over to off the racetrack (it upsets him).

If they stay focused I think they're the team to beat.

I don't think there is one thing that sets him off, one way or the other -- other than the fact if they're running badly. I don't think he likes to run bad, so he gets frustrated a lot easier when he's not running good.

But if things are going good, I think he's going to be hard to beat.

Greg Biffle
5,339 points
-23

Harvick: I think they had a lot of momentum at the beginning of the year and I'd say I think (Greg) will do something stupid in the middle of the Chase, here and wreck somewhere.

He'll take himself out of it at some point in the Chase. I think they're fast, week in and week out, but I think he'll screw it up somewhere along the line.

At the beginning of the year they were a threat to win every race -- week in and week out -- and that kind of went away, somewhere along the line, here.

So I think if they can find what they had at the beginning of the year, they might have a chance, but I think somewhere along the line he's going to short out.

Jeremy Mayfield
5,281 points
-81

Harvick: I think their strong point is just going to be motivation -- everybody not picking them to be a contender. They made it through the first race and didn't have any trouble, and finished the race.

But they've got to go out and race and not try to do things different from what they did to get themselves to where they are. They need to do the same things that got them to that point and not try to win the world over by trying to win every race on gas mileage or a crazy pit call.

They have the capability of running in the top 10 -- they just have to do it week in and week out to contend.

Carl Edwards
5,259 points
-103

Harvick: I think the strongest points for them are the mile-and-a-half racetracks -- I think Kansas, Homestead, Atlanta -- those types of racetracks they're really good on.

It seems to me like Martinsville and Talladega -- the short tracks and the superspeedway -- are going to be his downfall.

Yeah, I think that it seems like they just have certain tracks that they struggle on consistently. But the mile-and-a-half stuff they just run like Jack The Bear and they have done really well.

Carl's fortunate to have a lot of teammates around him that might fill some of those gaps, but I don't think that he's a contender for the championship.

Matt Kenseth
5,238 points
-124

Harvick: I think the biggest strength that they have is that they came from the beginning of the year and they weren't running that well and struggled, struggled, struggled -- and then they came back and fixed it and righted the ship and they've won a race at Bristol and have run in the top five or top 10 every week.

They've come on at the right time. In the opening Chase race at Loudon, they had the lug nut get stuck in the wheel and they came back and had a top-five finish -- so I think that week in and week out I think he's going to be one of the three to beat.

Kurt Busch
5,192 points
-170

Harvick: I think that they seem to be a little bit hit-and-miss. But when they're on it, though, they're on it and winning races. Obviously at Richmond (Kurt) was good but I think that starting off the Chase the way that they did has taken away any chance -- or it's a slim chance of them coming back and winning from having that first-race deficit.

I mean, when you give up however many points he gave up in the first race, there is going to be somebody up there in the top five who doesn't make any mistakes in the 10 races, and goes out and runs in the top 10 or top five every week and they're not going to make any mistakes until the end of the year.

Everybody's going to have some hiccups, but I don't think they're going to be as big as the hiccup that (Kurt) had. I think he'd have to win two or three races here in the Chase to come back and win it.

Favorites?

I think Stewart's the favorite, if everything keeps going the way that it's going, and he keeps the momentum that he has.

I don't think they're going to lose it, but I think -- if I had to pick two people I think it's going to be between he and Kenseth.