The Chase is shaping up to be a two-man sprint to the finish between Tony Stewart and Jimmie Johnson. Credit: Autostock

Chase Line: Phoenix

Let's be realistic. It's a two-man race. No one in the Roush camp is going to catch Tony Stewart or Jimmie Johnson unless both experience major problems.

Stewart's race at Texas showed just how strong the team is. Joe Gibbs Racing has a proven driver in a neutral-handling car every week, and they are killers on pit road.

Back-to-back wins have come to late to keep Carl Edwards in the Chase hunt. Credit: Autostock

Inside the Chase Point standings after Texas Rank Driver Pts. Behind 1. T. Stewart 6,255 -- 2. J. Johnson 6,217 -38 3. C. Edwards 6,178 -77 4. G. Biffle 6,133 -122 5. M. Martin 6,132 -123 6. M. Kenseth 6,120 -135 7. R. Newman 6,081 -174 8. Ku. Busch 5,974 -281 9. R. Wallace 5,940 -315 10. J. Mayfield 5,848 -407 • Complete Results, click here • Official Standings, click here • Lap-by-Lap, click here Chasers at Phoenix Driver No. W T-5 T-10 '05 T. Stewart 7 1 2 4 33 J. Johnson 4 0 1 2 15 C. Edwards 2 0 0 1 7 G. Biffle 3 0 0 0 41 M. Martin 18 1 8 13 16 M. Kenseth 6 1 2 3 42 R. Newman 6 0 2 2 14 Ku. Busch 6 1 2 4 1 R. Wallace 18 1 7 8 36 J. Mayfield 11 0 1 1 13 Small gainsJimmie Johnson talks about finishing ahead of Tony Stewart Texas showdownTony Stewart talks about battling Mark Martin late at Texas Dickies 500Catch all the highlights from TMS with TrackPass Sign up for TrackPass now BUY YOUR NEXTEL DRIVER PHONE

There are only two drivers within 100 points of Stewart, and it is asking a lot from Carl Edwards to make up 77 points on Stewart in just two events.

On the other hand, Jimmie Johnson can erase his 38-point deficit if he wins Phoenix and Stewart finishes seventh or worse.

Edwards won't win the title, but he will come within 50 points

Don't expect Edwards to fall in the last two races, but he will have to get a couple of top-three finishes to win the title. Sure, it can be done, but a more likely scenario is a pair of top-10s.

Phoenix already has emerged as Edwards' best shot at winning on an intermediate track, and he will be one of the cars to beat at Miami.

Unfortunately for him, 77 points is probably too many since he has both Stewart and Johnson to deal with. If only Johnson or Stewart was ahead of him, Edwards' odds would be about even.

Stewart's problems at Phoenix in the spring were isolated

I am sure a lot of people will note that the spring Phoenix event was Stewart's worst finish of the year, but his 33rd-place result came after two separate accidents.

Don't use that as a barometer. Stewart is good at Phoenix. He's good everywhere. That is why Johnson has to pick it up a notch.

Stewart clashed with Johnson in the spring race and was finally spun by Johnson in Phoenix's difficult Turn 3. Johnson maintained that Stewart contributed to the bump by brake-checking him.

With a title on the line, it's unlikely either Johnson or Stewart will treat this event like they did in April.

The Most Obvious Statement of the Year is ....

Rusty Wallace can ease his Chase pain with a win at Phoenix. Wallace's last real shot at winning comes this weekend. Wallace was good at Phoenix in the spring, but he damaged a radiator in the Stewart-Johnson wreck and never got a real chance at running up front.

Wallace's luck in the Chase has been anything but optimal, but there is some blame that must be applied. The decision to stay out during the final pit stop at Texas cost Wallace dearly, and Wallace also was critical of a similar decision the team made at Phoenix this year.

Phoenix has been kind to Wallace throughout the years, and its flat surface is exactly what the Dodge Charger needs to excel.

Phoenix isn't immune to problems

Phoenix is a tough little track.

It is a lot like Loudon in that it's a short race (about 300 miles) and its narrow corners can lead to heavy bumping, and heavy bumping can damage radiators.

Even in November, Phoenix's air temperature is always 80 degrees or higher, and the track has a lot of dirty air. It's not the best recipe for motors or tires.

Pit road at Phoenix is tight, as Greg Biffle found out when Mike Bliss hit him in April. Bliss' rear bumper bar went through Biffle's radiator, sending Biffle to his worst finish of the year.

Ryan Smithson is a senior writer for NASCAR.COM. Chase Line appears each Monday for the remainder of the season. The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.