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Tony Stewart leads Jimmie Johnson at Phoenix
Tony Stewart will feel more comfortable at Homestead if he can see Jimmie Johnson in his rearview mirror. Credit: Autostock

Chase Line: Homestead

By Ryan Smithson, NASCAR.COM
November 14, 2005
02:19 PM EST (19:19 GMT)

Tony Stewart still has some work to do.

As impressive as Stewart's season has been, his road at Homestead won't be a cakewalk lined with automatic title coronations.

Usually, 52 points is a pretty comfortable lead, but Jimmie Johnson is one of the few drivers who is dangerous enough to go out and lead the most laps at Homestead. If that happens, Stewart will still have to finish eighth.

Inside the Chase
Standings going into Homestead
Rank Driver Pts. Behind
1. T. Stewart 6,415 --
2. J. Johnson 6,363 -52
3. C. Edwards 6,328 -87
4. G. Biffle 6,313 -102
5. M. Martin 6,253 -162
6. R. Newman 6,208 -207
7. M. Kenseth 6,187 -228
8. R. Wallace 6,016 -399
9. Ku. Busch 5,974 -441
10. J. Mayfield 5,939 -476
Stewart, Johnson at Homestead
Category Stewart Johnson
Starts 6 4
Wins 2 0
Top-5 3 2
Top-10 4 3
Poles 0 0
DNF 0 0
Avg. Start 11.5 23.8
Avg. Finish 8.3 9.5
Laps/Led 1606/330 1072/34
• Stewart: Page | '05 Stats | Gear!
• Johnson: Page | '05 Stats | Gear!
NEXTEL TrackPass

Stewart will win the title if he finishes ninth and leads a lap, and Stewart has finished ninth or better in all but two races in the second half.

I feel for certain that Johnson will roll off the truck fast Friday and secure a top-three finish Sunday, so Stewart's top-10 streak will need to continue.

It's vital to qualify well at Homestead

Stewart's road to the title will become much easier if he qualifies in the top 10 on Friday. If he does that, it is pretty much over.

Homestead is such a short race (only 400 miles on a high-speed, banked track) that the importance of qualifying well is magnified.

That does not mean that a bad qualifying lap will doom your chances, but it certainly makes it 10 times harder. Because it's a short race, pit stops become more important, and getting a good pit stall is key.

Johnson found that out last year when he started in the back of the field after battling a loose car in qualifying.

Chad Knaus, crew chief for the No. 48 Chevrolet driven by Johnson, fixed the problem, but Johnson didn't lead a lap during the race, though he eventually finished second.

If the race had been 500 miles, Johnson undoubtedly would have won.

Stewart will race at Homestead in his Indianapolis car

Crew chief Greg Zipadelli's conservative setup approach is a big reason Stewart has been so consistent in 2005.

At worst, the No. 20 Chevrolet is still a top-15 car, and since the pit crew is so good, it is very hard to keep Stewart from finishing high on the lead lap.

At Homestead, Stewart is driving the same car he won with at Indianapolis. More important, the car performed well at the high-banked tracks of Charlotte and Kansas.

As expected, Martinsville did Edwards in. Or did it?

Carl Edwards
Chase results
Race Start Finish Led
Loudon 24 19 0
Dover 32 9 0
Talladega 10 5 2
Kansas 5 3 1
Charlotte 8 10 0
Martinsville 18 26 0
Atlanta 2 1 115
Texas 30 1 82
Phoenix 3 6 0
Driver Page | 2005 Stats | Gear!
NEXTEL TrackPass

It is very easy to point to Edwards' 26th-place finish at Martinsville as the reason he is 87 points out heading into the weekend, but I don't see it that way.

Edwards is still in the title hunt for two reasons: The two wins, and luck.

I still marvel at Edwards' 10th-place finish at Dover. Most expected Edwards to finish around 20th, and Edwards certainly had only a 20th-place car, but he got a caution at the right time and wound up in the top 10.

Then he finished fifth at Talladega after surviving two wrecks that happened right in front of him.

Edwards is obviously a long shot to win the title this year, but I'll bet he will be the preseason title pick on a lot of media members' sheets in 2006.

A win at Homestead would give Edwards a tie for the series lead in wins. Remarkable.

Ryan Smithson is a senior writer for NASCAR.COM. Chase Line appears each Monday for the remainder of the season. The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.

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