Jeff Gordon hasn't won at Michigan since he did it from the pole back in 2001. Credit: Autostock

Edge of Elimination: Michigan

Tracking Earnhardt Jr., Gordon in their race for the Chase

With top Chase contenders Greg Biffle, Kurt Busch and Ryan Newman all having mediocre days at Watkins Glen, both Jeff Gordon and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are heading to Michigan with minor victories under their belts.

Inside the Numbers Edge of Elimination: Points behind the Chase Driver Pos. Pts. Behind Sadler 11th 3 Jarrett 12th 3 Gordon 13th 67 Harvick 14th 70 Earnhardt Jr. 15th 163

Granted, both drivers fell further behind of that 400-point barrier that would qualify them for the Chase, but there is a silver lining; Gordon and Earnhardt Jr. both closed the points gap on the 10th-position (Carl Edwards) and each gained one position in the overall point standings.

Only 73 points separate 13th-place Gordon with 9th-place Jamie McMurray so there is still plenty of position-shuffling to come, especially when all four drivers in front of Gordon bested him at Michigan back in June -- and Kevin Harvick is trailing Gordon by only three points.

As a matter of fact three of those four drivers ahead of Gordon -- outside of Dale Jarrett who finished 24th -- had top-15 finishes, including a 5th for Edwards, 8th for Elliott Sadler and a 13th for McMurray.

With only four races to go until the Chase, the Gordon that used to dominate Michigan needs to show up on Sunday. Otherwise, in the immortal words of Colonel Trautman from Rambo: First Blood, "It's over Johnny. It's over!"

This week: GFS Marketplace 400

Jeff Gordon
• Current points position: 13th, -587 (+1)
• Points behind 10th position: 67 (20 points closer)
• Points behind 400: 187 (lost 64 points at WGI)

Jeff Gordon Credit: Autostock

The career numbers on Gordon at Michigan are certainly impressive: two wins (1998 and 2001), with an average start of 9.6 and average finish of 10.2 in 25 events.

Unfortunately his recent history is more telling, with Gordon stumbling home with 30th-or-worse finishes in three of his last four runs at this track. After dominating early during the June 2004 event, a rare blown engine ended his day prematurely. Then tire problems haunted him during the Batman Begins 400 just this past June.

Gordon's biggest obstacle at gaining points this weekend is going to be the Yates mates of Sadler and Jarrett. Sadler has two top-10 finishes in his last three visits to Michigan, and Jarrett has a long, successful track record in Detroit.

In his 37 career starts, Jarrett has run up 20 top-10 finishes -- that is 54% of the time, for those of you counting -- including four wins.

If Gordon, and for that matter Sadler and Jarrett, are going to move up this weekend, McMurray and Edwards will both need to have average days, which may be a tall order.

McMurray came home with a top-5 finish back in 2004 -- although he does have two DNFs in five career starts at MIS -- and Edwards has scored two top-10 finishes in both of his career attempts here.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.
• Current points position: 15th, -683 (+1)
• Points behind 10th position: 163 (28 points closer)
• Points behind 400: 283 (lost 56 at WGI)

Dale Earnhardt Jr. Credit: Autostock

Mathmatically or not, this is the weekend that officially puts a stake in the heart of the Earnhardt Nation, and it will come courtesy of Roush Racing and Matt Kenseth.

The planning for 2006 begins Monday.

Michigan has never really been kind to Earnhardt Jr., even with two career poles at the track. His career average finish in 12 starts is 20.8 and his last top-10 finish came back in the Spring race of 2003.

By contrast, Kenseth has dominated consistently at Michigan. With identical career starts of 12, Kenseth has tallied one victory, eight top-10 finishes -- including a current streak of five consecutive -- and an average finish of 8.5.

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The small victory Earnhardt Jr. achieved by passing Kenseth in the standings at Watkins Glen, albeit by a mere two points, will evaporate on Sunday.

Oh yeah, and that guy named Kevin Harvick sitting above Junior in the standings by 93 points? Well, he has three career top-10 finishes at Michigan in only nine attempts so don't look for that team to give up any ground to the Budweiser team either.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.