Chase Line: Richmond

Ryan Smithson is on vacation, so Elliott Gordon is the substitute driver this weekend.

And then there was one.

With only 137 points separating 8th-place Carl Edwards and 13th-place Elliott Sadler in the standings, Richmond is certainly going to be a show on Saturday night.

The most interesting side note is that Roush Racing is most likely going to end up with all five of its drivers inside the Chase. With 50-percent of the Chasers from his stable, it is a good bet that Jack Roush will land this third-consecutive Cup championship, most likely with a third different driver.

• In the green: Carl Edwards, Matt Kenseth, Jamie McMurray

No. 8: Carl Edwards

If I surveyed 100 fans before the Daytona 500, I am still not convinced I would find one that would say Edwards would have made the Chase -- yet here we are.

Carl Edwards

Without the help of any other driver, Edwards needs to finish just 19th at Richmond to clinch his spot. He does have one 6th-place finish at RIR back in the fall of 2004, but generally speaking his track record at short tracks isn't anything special.

His other start at Richmond earlier this season resulted in a 21st-place finish. Combine that with his 24th and 38th-place finishes at Martinsville and 33rd, 26th and 24th-place finishes at Bristol, and his career average short track finish is 24.5.

Nevertheless, Edwards should make the Chase.

No. 9: Matt Kenseth

No one is hotter than Kenseth right now, period. He has knocked off four top-10 finishes in his last five starts, and now he heads to a track that has been very kind to him in the past.

He won this event back in 2002 and has collected six top-10 finishes in 11 career starts. Ironically, at a track where track position is key, he has only started better than 16th ONCE. His career average starting position is just 23rd.

Kenseth does trail Edwards by 75 points, and only has a ten point cushion over Jamie McMurray, but I am going to make the call -- Kenseth gets into the Chase. Oh yeah, and if he wins, he's in no matter what.

No. 10: Jamie McMurray

I am not so sure we should call McMurray "in the green," as he is ahead of Ryan Newman in the standings by a single point.

Jamie McMurray

Nevertheless, a point is a point, and no one knows that better than McMurray after he missed the Chase in 2004 because of a points penalty he suffered earlier that season.

McMurray only has five career starts at Richmond, and after struggling initially, he has come home with back-to-back top-10s in his previous two starts. He has never led a lap though, and those five bonus points could mean the difference between 10th and 11th in the standings.

In a nutshell, if McMurray gets a top-10 finish, leads a lap, and finishes ahead of Newman and Gordon, he is in.

• In the yellow: Ryan Newman, Jeff Gordon, Elliott Sadler

No. 11: Ryan Newman

Newman has been fading since his 34th-place finish at the Brickyard. He has dropped four places in the standings over the last five races, and that is mainly due to three finishes of 30th-or-worse during that span.

Like Kenseth, Newman has had a lot of success at Richmond. In seven career starts, he has five top-10 finishes, including a win back in the 2003 fall event.

Additionally, as people have come to expect with Newman, he has consistently started in the front. Since starting 11th back in his first career RIR start in 2002, he has never started worse than FIFTH -- and he won the pole for this event last season.

This is obviously a make-or-break weekend for the No. 12 team, and with only one point separating him from the Chase, I would put my money on Newman before McMurray for the 10th spot.

No. 12: Jeff Gordon

Thirty points. That is what is keeping Gordon from having a shot at his fifth championship.

Jeff Gordon

Why is Gordon even in this position? His mid-season slump, which ironically began back in May at this same track, is the main culprit. After finishing 39th at the Chevy American Revolution 400, Gordon was still third in the standings -- but he fell as far as 15th after collecting SIX finishes of 30th-or-worse in a span of eight races.

Gordon does have a lot of previous success at Richmond, including ten top-5 finishes in 25 career starts and two wins, with the last one coming back in 2000. His average start is also just 7.4.

Momentum is not on Gordon's side right now, and it must be frustrating when the "kids" like Kyle Busch and Brian Vickers are actually outperforming him.

My prediction -- Gordon falls short at Richmond, but does collect the $1 million bonus at the end of the season for finishing 11th.

No. 13: Elliott Sadler

Sadler, like Newman, has been fading as well. He hasn't had a top -10 finish since Sonoma back in June, and his average finish since the unofficial second half of the season started at the Pepsi 400 is 25th.

Ironically, Sadler's career average finish at Richmond is also 25th over a span of 13 starts. He did finish at respectable 7th earlier this season, but he trails McMurray by 52 points and even a finish like that probably won't help him on Saturday night.

Additionally, Sadler has led a grand total of ONE lap at Richmond, and that was back in 2000.

In the red: Dale Jarrett, Kevin Harvick, Joe Nemechek

Of the three bubble drivers currently not in the top 10, who is not going to make the cut? Ryan Newman Jeff Gordon Elliott Sadler View Results

Let's be honest, at 117 points out of 10th, it's over for Jarrett, as well as Harvick (131 points out) and Nemechek (135 points out).

One of these drivers could certainly be a spoiler on Saturday night and steal part of the show with a victory, but unless some really unforeseen circumstances occur, their Chase dreams are over.

Jarrett is a former Richmond winner, collecting victories back in 1997 and 1999, and Nemechek did win the spring event back in 2003 after leading 156 laps.

Harvick, who hasn't visited victory lane at Richmond, does have three top-10 finishes here, including a 5th back in the spring.

The opinions expressed here are solely those of the writer.