 | | Brian Vickers has made one of the biggest decisions in his career. Was it a good one? Credit: Autostock |
By Marty Smith, NASCAR.COM
June 27, 2006
03:59 PM EDT (19:59 GMT)
The Brian Vickers-to-Red Bull/Toyota scenario, now complete, is a complex one. Without question, the 22-year-old is taking quite a risk, placing considerable stock and confidence in potential. Granted, the risk is calculated and the potential extremely enticing -- not unlike an NBA general manager drafting a high school senior in years past. There are LeBron Jameses and there are Kwame Browns. Vickers cites overall team competitiveness -- not money -- as the primary reason for choosing to leave Hendrick Motorsports in favor of the Red Bull/Toyota program. Regardless the reason, many fans and industry types alike consider this decision utterly insane, ponder how Vickers could possibly presume an established program -- one many consider the current standard-bearer at the Nextel Cup level, no less -- is incapable of providing him with a race-winning program, but a start-up team can? And more importantly, will? Kevin Harvick, the driver many insiders tabbed as the future of Red Bull/Toyota earlier this year before he re-signed with Richard Childress Racing in May, ultimately succumbed to the ol' "grass isn't always greener" logic and stayed put. He knew exactly what he had at Childress, and couldn't guarantee it would be any better anywhere else. Likewise, Vickers knows what he has at Hendrick, and feels it can, indeed, be better elsewhere. For those peering in from the periphery the math doesn't add up. The success Jeff Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Kyle Busch have enjoyed -- 27 victories combined during Vickers' Cup Series tenure -- makes it awfully difficult to rationalize. But maybe that's just it -- fourth fiddle sucks. Ask the average pundit the HMS pecking order and most will rank the No. 25 last. They'll also tell you, though, that fourth at Hendrick is better than first at most places. Ricky Rudd told me several months ago that Red Bull/Toyota was extremely impressive, that it would have its act together from the word go, that it would come out guns-a-blazin'. Rudd's been around. He's seen what a solid program looks like. He's seen what a championship-caliber team looks like. He'd know impressive from unimpressive, prepared from unprepared. And he doesn't B.S. Ever. Still, from my vantage point -- which again, from the outside is one ignorant to the true inner morale and capability of the No. 25 team -- Vickers is plumb crazy. He not only left HMS, but chose Toyota over Robert Yates Racing and Chip Ganassi Racing (though to my knowledge he never spoke with Ganassi.) I can't say I'd have the guts. Folks like comfortable. This is consummate risk/reward. And in this life, folks that leave an indelible mark often assume a high level of risk. No doubt Vickers would leave a mark if he wins a bunch of races and championships. And hey, would Kasey Kahne be Kasey Kahne if he'd stayed with Ford? When he left Ford, Robert Yates Racing was running for championships. And don't forget -- a guy named Gordon left Bill Davis Racing for Hendrick back in the early '90s. Far different circumstances certainly, but a calculated risk nonetheless. At the time, HMS had an impressive 32 wins in nine Cup Series seasons. Gordon has 74 wins in 13 and a half seasons. Side note: I have to wonder why Kurt Busch didn't take this much flack? Was it because he went from one established program to the next? Was his out-of-the-blue migration considered less risky because he left Roush Racing for Rusty's team, despite the fact that he'd won 12 more races than Wallace during the five seasons they were both in the series? OK, OK. I'll shut up now. Your turn. If you were a young driver, would you rather be with a start-up team or an established team? NASCARNubian: If I had my druthers then I'd rather be with the established team. However, if I had been with one of the premier teams for a number of years without a win -- even while each of my teammates had multiple wins over that time span -- then I might be tempted to jump ship before I got axed. While it is true that there is more to performance than just the driver, the driver usually gets the credit and the blame for performance regardless of his talents. Ward Burton anyone? To jump ship or not to jump ship -- it's a decision that each driver has to make for themself, understanding that if he gets axed then he might never again see Cup racing without a grandstand ticket. According to HMS officials Vickers' job stability was never in question, though it was speculated throughout much of last year. Where I think this response has considerable merit is the "what if he fails to excel this time?" scenario. In other words, if this venture fails will there even be a next time? You hear it so often it's become cliché, but this truly is a performance-based business. Jeter has a unique perspective regarding this dynamic: MrSeptember: I would rather go with an established team -- no question. However, Vickers came from a top-level established team and that didn't work out for him. With all the money Red Bull is likely to spend, I think he made a wise decision. I'm sure he's getting a handsome salary increase to go along with it too. If it does work out and he starts performing better, he can show that the 25 team was holding him back. If his performance doesn't improve, he can always 'blame' it on being with a brand new team. However, if you stay in a top level car long enough and don't perform you will eventually find yourself without anyone that wants to hire you. Even if the 25 isn't as good as the 24/48/5 cars, lets face it, it's a top level car. Without question. For all intents and purposes, Vickers should have more than one victory by now. He dominated Pocono last year before finishing second to Carl Edwards. He was good at Pocono again earlier this month. He had the best car at Talladega two months ago before Johnson charged past for the win. More on the history of the 25 a bit later ... rcr_29: Brian's decision probably came down to the money Toyota's throwing around. If he's thinking about the longer term, he'll also probably be better off being the top dog on the new team rather than the low man on the totem pole at Hendrick or another team. That said, he'd probably also struggle more in the short term as the team is building than he would have at Hendrick or another established team. That's another thing -- cash. Vickers is hell-bent adamant that money did not influence this decision. But seriously, who could blame him if it did? Ultimately, competition is about winning. I understand that. And I can't deny that I get a bad vibe from guys in other sports that sign the big contract on the crappy team instead of accepting a bit less money for the opportunity to compete for a contender. But the reality is you're only here for so long, so you can't blame a man for jumping at the opportunity to exponentially increase his annual salary. You can say all you want about selling out, but NASCAR fans love NASCAR drivers because they're the everyday men in the perceived haughty world of professional athletics. Well, I'd betcha a whole lot of home builders and landscapers and bartenders would do it in a heartbeat. And if they ain't the everyman, who is? AD Hamilton agrees ... UTmike8rulz: I can't blame Vickers for the move. I know all these guys make a boat load of money, but he is still really young and has a lot of time left to focus on championships.  |  | | Brian Vickers' best finish this season is a third-place run at Talladega. Credit: Autostock |
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| Inside the Numbers |
| Vickers' 2006 results |
| Race |
Driver |
Start |
Finish |
| 1. |
Daytona |
35 |
7 |
running |
| 2. |
California |
28 |
18 |
running |
| 3. |
Las Vegas |
10 |
22 |
running |
| 4. |
Atlanta |
37 |
23 |
running |
| 5. |
Bristol |
17 |
37 |
running |
| 6. |
Martinsville |
24 |
8 |
running |
| 7. |
Texas |
33 |
43 |
engine |
| 8. |
Phoenix |
14 |
13 |
running |
| 9. |
Talladega |
33 |
3 |
running |
| 10. |
Richmond |
4 |
37 |
accident |
| 11. |
Darlington |
8 |
41 |
running |
| 12. |
Charlotte |
17 |
37 |
running |
| 13. |
Dover |
24 |
23 |
running |
| 14. |
Pocono |
4 |
4 |
running |
| 15. |
Michigan |
3 |
17 |
running |
| 16. |
Infineon |
42 |
14 |
running |
|
|
Going over to Toyota with a BIG fat contract will set him for life. Get that nest egg built up to the size of Tony Stewart and then in a few years make career moves that will set you up for championships. This is a new team, but in a few years he might be in a situation that puts him where he wants to be. That raises a key point -- if it's about money, tell me it's about money. It's like taking blame for a wreck. All folks want is honesty. And again, Vickers genuinely feels he'll perform better in the future. djr-81: I would absolutely go with an established team. It may work out in the long run with some patience. That is something that I believe Vickers and a lot of other young drivers lack. Let's face it, a second rate HMS car (i.e. No. 25) is a better piece than nearly half of the other cars in the field. So that being said the No. 25 is the better place to be. I am not a HMS fan at all, but it will take Toyota a long time to surpass the No. 25, and a lot of other teams, performance-wise. Pete Rondeau speaks for the masses, here. This is precisely how most folks perceive and analyze the situation. BIGTYMEHUNT6: If I was Vickers I would definitely do it. Let's face it, the boy does have talent. But the problem is that the 25 car has never and I'll repeat never been up to par as the 24. Even if you go back 10 yrs there is something missing in the 25 shop and always has been. Vickers made right choice. Mears I think will be in the same boat as he is in now with the 42 team. I hate to loose a Chevy driver to Toyota but he has to do what is best for him. Plus he is young enough that he is very marketable for sponsors. Two things here, R.C. First, the history of the No. 25 car: Since Gordon's first championship season in 1995, nine different drivers have piloted the 25 at least once. Those 391 starts have produced just two victories -- Jerry Nadeau at Atlanta in 2000 and Joe Nemechek at Richmond in 2003. More telling is the number of top-fives during that span -- 28 total. Gordon had 26 top-fives in 1998 alone. |  | | Brian Vickers will drive the No. 83 Toyota next year. Credit: Toyota |
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And about Vickers benefiting from a new marketing push: Between Red Bull -- for which he lands perfectly in their target demographic -- and Toyota, we'll be seeing a heckuva lot of Mr. Vickers. mcmurrayfan: Each young driver is going to have a different set of circumstances. While a lot of fans are wondering what is going through the mind of Brian Vickers, there must be reasons he had his agent talking to the Red Bull folks. First of all, he may have felt like the step-child of Hendrick Motorsports. Never in the history of Hendrick Motorsports has the #25 team been its premier team. One has to wonder if they are providing the same level of personnel as the other teams. Second, I would think that due to the loss of Ricky Hendrick, Brian may have felt that he needed a new lease on life. After all, everywhere he went in the Hendrick Motorsports complex, there were probably things that reminded him of his friend. Finally, as Jeff Burton showed a couple of years ago, sometimes you need something new to set a spark. Just maybe Brian Vickers sees this as an opportunity to test that theory. After all, he didn't see it is a positive situation with the #25 team. Money talks, too. In today's NASCAR, patience is no longer a virtue. If things aren't working out, neither side (owners or drivers) are going to wait around for it to improve itself. Best of the lot this week. That pretty well sums it up. Time to head back to Daytona. Oh, and one more thing about Vickers -- don't be surprised if he's in Victory Lane Saturday night. The opinions expressed are soley of the participants. | 
