Matt Kenseth enters the Chase as the Nextel Cup points leader. Credit: Autostock

Last Lap: Playoff run

Handicapping the Chase a thankless job, but we do it anyway

Entering the Chase guillotine at Richmond, I offered three distinct predictions for the Chevy Rock 'n Roll 400: Kyle Busch would win the race; Kasey Kahne would make the Chase, and thus eliminate Mark Martin from championship contention.

One was spot-on (Kahne). Another was damn close, though ultimately incorrect (Busch). The last was dead-wrong (Martin. This is one time I can accept being wrong. Great to see Martin in the show.)

	MARTY SMITH •   E-mail Marty •   Opinion Archive

One-for-three. Not too good. But my daddy always said you gotta get back on the horse, so this week I'll try my hand at handicapping the Chase for the Nextel Cup. It is truly an impossible mission, though one worthy of debate.

See, the Chase is like a Hollywood marriage: It gets you a helluvalotta pub, but can be over in a week's time.

Marty's champion: Matt Kenseth.

Calm, intensely focused driver. Elite pit crew. Great equipment. Virtually impenetrable mental toughness throughout entire team. Not easily rattled when day sours.

As each Chase begins, all 10 drivers seem fully capable, poised and prepared to vie for the title. But inevitably performances wane and the Chase comes down to a handful of competitors.

I believe as many as six drivers will be in contention at Homestead, but Kenseth's consistency will ultimately prevail. The Cup Series has already visited eight of the 10 tracks that comprise the Chase this year.

Kenseth's average finish in those races is 8.5.

If you're an MIT grad and put stock in NASCAR's Loop Data statistical analysis, Jimmie Johnson and Mark Martin should fare well, too. This stuff's a bit convoluted, over my head, but if you're a hardcore stats guy it's ammo.com.

Loop Data based on 2005 and 2006 shows that Martin has the best cumulative driver rating (99.3) of all Chase participants. Martin has compiled one win, 12 top-five and 15 top-10 finishes at Chase tracks over the past two seasons.

Martin has the best average running position (11.43) of any driver in the Chase and the second-best average finish, 10.9. He's also run the highest percentage of fastest laps. His No. 6 Ford is the fastest car on the track 5.5 percent of the time.

The most telling statistic is Martin's average point gain at Chase tracks. He averages earning 140.5 points per race, the most among the Chase drivers.

Johnson, meanwhile, has a tendency to start strong and fade. This could be the year he erases that reputation. Johnson has more wins at Chase tracks --- four --- than any other driver in the championship hunt.

Additionally, he has 11 top-five and 19 top-10 finishes at Chase tracks, helping him amass the second-best driver rating (99.1) at Chase tracks. His average running position, 12.15, is second-only to Martin.

At Chase tracks, Johnson has led 4.9 percent of the time and has run in the top 15 on 74.7 percent of the laps -- the highest total for any driver. Like Martin, Johnson also has one of the best average point gains of any driver in the Chase.

Johnson averages 139.9 points per race, trailing only Martin.

Confused yet?

Dark horse: Denny Hamlin.

Is there really a dark horse in this bunch?

A couple months back I said Hamlin would falter, that the pressure would eventually break the rookie's will. Wrong. Hamlin continues to improve and impress, but he's still flying below the radar.

Matt Kenseth has the points lead heading into the Chase. Credit: Autostock

Chase for the Nextel Cup Unofficial Standings Pos. Driver Behind 1. Matt Kenseth Leader 2. Jimmie Johnson -5 3. Kevin Harvick -10 4. Kyle Busch -15 5. Denny Hamlin -20 6. Dale Earnhardt Jr. -25 7. Mark Martin -30 8. Jeff Burton -35 9. Jeff Gordon -40 10. Kasey Kahne -45 • Complete standings, click here Points leaderMatt Kenseth decribes how it feels to be the points leader Five points outJohnson assesses his title chances as he enters the Chase Chase qualifierDale Jr. talks about how he is pleased with his team RelievedMark Martin earns a Chase spot, chance for first title In the showKasey Kahne takes the final spot in the Chase Missing the cutTony Stewart on missing the Chase after his day at Richmond Race Rewind - RichmondWatch a condensed version of the Chevy Rock & Roll 400! Sign up for TrackPass now BUY THE NEXTEL i836

Saw Elliott Sadler on the sidewalk the other day. While discussing Richmond, he told me to watch Hamlin, that he'd sneak up on the Chase. No rookie's ever won a Cup Series championship.

That could change. The two big wildcards in the Chase are Talladega and Martinsville. Hamlin won the Budweiser Shootout, and has more laps at Martinsville than any other track.

Successfully Chasing the Cup. It's a fine line, indeed; a tightrope trek balanced by good timing and good fortune. One slip, it's over.

One minute you're Tim and Faith. The next you're Bennifer.

oldracer35: Marty, With the way the Chase points are handed out, (i.e. the same as during the first 26 races) I hate to say this, but the winner of the Series is going to be whoever has the best luck, misses the wrecks and doesn't have a part break and records a DNF.

The driver with the most skill doesn't necessarily win this thing. That is the biggest reason why there needs to be a change to the points system both during the first 26 races, and the last 10.

One bad finish during the Chase and you are through. Skill at this point is only your second-best attribute. Good ol' luck is what will win you the big trophy at the end.

Jeff Burton said it perfectly Friday at Richmond: Bad finishes hurt teams far worse than good finishes -- even wins -- reward them. That's bass ack'ards.

It's time for more points to the winner. Fortunately, NASCAR is considering the thought. Here's hoping they act on it.

TazDvl5150: I am hoping for a great Chase between those 10 drives but the unknown in all this is now that Tony Stewart isn't in the Chase, all he has to do is run for wins.

I believe it is his Karma that kept him out of the top 10, but I think that also makes him the wild card. Smoke will bump, slide, push, move or slam any or all 10 Chase drivers to get his win. Watch out Chase contenders, Tony is lookin' to win all 10 of the last races and you 10 have bullseyes on your bumpers.

Stewart's failure to make the Chase baffles me. Didn't see it coming. He's a Richmond ace, as good a driver as there's ever been at the three-quarter mile track.

That prowess lessened any concern stemming from Friday's crash during practice, which cost the team some 25 percent of the allotted two-hour practice window during an impound weekend.

That said, the backup car was no slouch. Stewart drove it to a seventh-place finish in last year's September race at RIR, then earlier this season won in the machine at Martinsville Speedway in just its second career start.

They just didn't get it done.

"It's been an up-and-down year and the day we needed to be on, we just couldn't get on," he said.

In a 26-race span it's difficult to point to a single instance as the Chase-killer, but I'd venture to say Stewart would like to have New Hampshire back.

Fact is, he had a race-winning car and let his emotions get the best of him.

Squirt77: Kyle Busch [will win] because of:
• His raw God-given talent as a race car driver.
• His youthful, aggressive driving style now tempered with patience and smart thinking due to ...
• The tremendous amount of maturity Kyle has gained just in the past 10 or 12 races.

Last year, and the first part of this year, I could not stand to watch this young (very young) man because he was such a smart "butt"; he seemed to let his mouth overload his brain.

Junior is still my current favorite, but Kyle is my pick to win the Chase. All in all there are 10 great drivers and teams in the Chase. It should be real exciting.

Indeed, Busch matured a great deal over the summer, namely following the HANS meltdown at Lowe's Motor Speedway.

In the 14 races since -- essentially the second half of the Race for the Chase -- Busch has six top-five and nine top-10 finishes, and has jumped from 10th to fourth in the championship standings.

Kurtbusch420: Being a Kurt Busch fan I would say I have an unbiased opinion. With that said, as long as that No. 29 with his ridiculous opinions of a past champion (KB) does not win it, I would be happy. You can also throw the No. 24 in there, of course.

I'm no Einstein, but that sure does read like a biased opinion to me.

Vaughn275: If Mark Martin can survive the Big One at Talladega in October and be within 50 points, then I feel luck is on his side and he'll finally get his first of what should have already been -- championship.

A Martin championship would certainly be popular. There is no more respected driver in the Nextel Cup Series.

24manjg: I think it's going to come down to Harvick/Kenseth/Gordon. You can say what you want about Gordon's season, but the fact is up until the Richmond race, he's had a 7.5 average finish going back 8 races prior. That was second only to Harvick, who had an average finish of 6.8.

To whoever thinks Kasey Kahne is going to win it, he's had the most up down season of them all. I don't understand why people were saying he's a lock to win it all because he's on such a roll. Over the past eight races (not including Richmond) his average finish was 17.1.

What kind of roll is that? He's the worst driver out of the top 10 right now as far as momentum.

These [average finishes] don't reflect the Richmond race:
Harvick: 6.8
Gordon: 7.5
Hamlin: 7.75
Johnson: 9.1
Busch: 10.1
Kenseth: 10.25
Martin: 13.8
Burton: 13.8
Earnhardt: 15.75
Kahne: 17.1

Why is nobody talking about Hamlin? He's been as hot as Harvick and Gordon have. Why can't he win? Like I said, it comes down to Harvick/Gordon.

People aren't talking about Hamlin because he's a rookie. Rookies aren't supposed to have the talent, equipment or mental fortitude to handle a championship run. Hamlin has them all. Again, his own competitors consider him a threat. We should, too.

And don't forget, he'll be seeing some of the tracks for the second time.

20nine: Kevin Harvick will win the championship. Here's why:

Momentum: I don't think anyone (except maybe Kenseth) has more going into the Chase. He has something to prove -- the last two years he has not made it in. He's going out there to prove that he's one of the elite.

Confidence: Tell me that having another championship in the bag from another series doesn't make you feel almost invincible.

RCR: They have never looked this sharp (as a whole) in their entire history. He's already won more races this season than in any other. Harvick will win the two biggest American motorsports championships in the same year.

He'll bask in the glory of having this distinction on his resume. He'll use this all as his motivation. It's something that you're not likely to see ever again.

True enough. Remarkable doesn't even start. Harvick has made a mockery of the Busch Series and is peaking at the right time in the Cup Series.

But for the competitors the road to the Waldorf is long and winding. For us, it promises to be thrilling.

The opinions expressed are solely of the participants.