"Excuse me, I need to check my e-mail." Credit: Todd Warshaw/Getty Images

Track Smack: Shootout

Participating in Track Smack today is David Newton, who joins our staff this season after a long stint with The State in Columbia, S.C.

Marty says Casey Mears will make the Chase for the Nextel Cup. Is he crazy?

Marty Smith: Most folks think I've lost my mind, but I truly think this is Mears' year. Jamie McMurray was close twice with this team, and Mears has a boatload of confidence. The Charger's performance in the first four races is key.

Ryan Smithson: Asking Mears to make the Chase is too much. Casey will finish about 15th and finally win a race. But I wonder how well he would have done had Ganassi simply painted all the No. 41 Dodges black and kept Mears with Jimmy Elledge.

David Newton: Well, I wouldn't say crazy. Just a bit out there. Casey has as many wins the past three years as Kyle Petty, which is a fat zero. He has only nine top-10s and four top-fives. What makes him think he can get in the Chase?

Dave Rodman: Crazy? Heck no. I wasn't happy to get backed into a corner predicting the Chase at this point in the season -- or preseason. If Casey Mears won three races this season, I wouldn't be surprised.

David Newton: A top-10 would mean a 12-spot jump ... too far.

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Marty Smith: Not many folks thought Greg Biffle would finish 30 points from a championship in 2005, boys.

David Newton: So you're saying Casey is a better driver than McMurray, who couldn't make the Chase?

David Newton: By the way, I had Biffle No. 5 last year

Marty Smith: No. 5 could be 400 points from the title, David. He was 30.

Dave Rodman: I think Jamie could be positioned for a breakout year as well. Chemistry -- even if it didn't seem so bad where you were -- could mean an explosion if you get it exactly right.

David Newton: At least Biffle had won the year before. Casey's done nothing.

Ryan Smithson: Casey won two races last year that he didn't get credit for, Newt. He got robbed at Miami.

David Newton: What do they say about frogs if they had wings?

Ryan Smithson: I don't know. That they taste better?

Dave Rodman: Jimmy Fennig's part of Kurt's title and two consecutive Chase appearances can't be underestimated.

David Newton: If Casey has a top-15 year, he'll be doing well.

Ryan Smithson: He'll have a top-15 year. Barely, but the Charger does hurt him a bit.

Marty Smith: Nope, I didn't say Mears was a better driver than McMurray. McMurray is very, very good. I just have a feeling about Mears. But, I said the same about Jeff Burton last year.

Dave Rodman: Well, he'll be happy with a top-15 year -- but we were talking about a possible Chase berth -- and it is. But it is for at least 20 guys, at this point.

PICKS: SHOOTOUT •   MartDawg: Bill Elliott  •   Ryan: Elliott Sadler  •   Newt: Carl Edwards  •   Rodman: Dale Earnhardt Jr.  E-MAIL •   Dave Rodman •   Ryan Smithson •   Marty Smith •   David Newton JOIN THE FRAY •   Send us a topic for discussion

Marty Smith: At least I have the guts to go out on a limb.

Ryan Smithson: Guys, I might be 100 percent wrong, but Ganassi usually signs his guys to four-year deals. This might be a contract year for Casey.

David Newton: McMurray will make it this year because he has better equipment and doesn't have to deal with Dodge's problems.

Dave Rodman: And he has Fennig. Sounds like a winning trifecta to me.

David Newton: If it's a contract year and he wins a race, maybe he'll go to Toyota.

Ryan Smithson: Staying with Ganassi might mean Toyota, Newt.

Dave Rodman: Heck, maybe Chip is going to Toyota anyway.

Marty Smith: McMurray is sliding right into a proven ride. He should be good. If he doesn't win and make the Chase it'll be a big disappointment.

Ryan Smithson: If McMurray doesn't win, geez. That would suck for him.

David Newton: You mean like a Kasey Kahne disappointment.

Dave Rodman: He needs to practice his poker face -- because when he says he doesn't know anything about what's going on, well, let's just say I give Chip a lot more credit than that.

Marty Smith: Something like that, David, though Kahne did get a win before the wheels fell off.

Casey Mears wants to find his Dirty Dancing soundtrack. Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images

Ryan Smithson: I am more interested to see how Casey Mears does than anyone in the series in 2006. Maybe a tad more than Elliott Sadler working with Tommy Baldwin.

David Newton: I agree, I just feel he gets way too much credit for what he's done.

Ryan Smithson: Kahne had an amazing run in 2004, Newt. It is still amazing.

David Newton: Did he make the Chase? Amazingly, no.

Ryan Smithson: Course not. He was a rookie.

Dave Rodman: The benefit of the doubt I can give him is he relatively has little stock car experience, but this is a tell-tale year, for sure.

David Newton: I'll give him this year.

Ryan Smithson: We have got to give the Dodge guys the benefit of the doubt for a little while. Guys at Roush have no excuses.

Marty Smith: Well, it says a lot that Dodge is willing to run the old make.

David Newton: Why? They've had a year to figure this nose thing out and they still haven't.

Ryan Smithson: Newt, they submitted that car and then NASCAR changed the rules on them.

"You know Mark, you're not much younger than the Super Bowl halftime show." Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images

Marty Smith: David, remember man the Charger was built on specs before NASCAR chopped off the spoilers.

Ryan Smithson: It's like designing a probe to go to the moon and then changing it at the last minute for a mission to Mars.

David Newton: Sounds like the Car of Tomorrow.

Ryan Smithson: Don't get us started on that. Actually, the ones who need to get started on it are the owners. Ha.

Marty Smith: I want to put a CoT wing on the Pink Panther. Right on the top.

David Newton: I sill think they should have fixed the problem before now. Ray Evernham has like 2,000 engineers, doesn't he?

Ryan Smithson: The trailer for that Pink Panther movie is the worst trailer of all time.

Marty Smith: I might auction off the Panther for charity.

Dave Rodman: I'd say I don't know enough about the submission process for the Charger with the rule change to make an intelligent comment -- but then that would open the door to saying "When did that ever stop anyone in this forum?"

Who is going to win the Budweiser Shootout?

David Newton: Carl Edwards.

Budget cuts force Junior to use some Duct tape on his car. Credit: Rusty Jarrett/Getty Images

Ryan Smithson: I am just going to be in shock at the sight of Matt Kenseth actually rolling off the starting grid.

Marty Smith: Bill Elliott. MB2 has good speedway cars, and it'd be a damn good story.

David Newton: Why isn't anybody picking Ken Schrader?

Dave Rodman: Dale Jr., of course. What a fitting comeback story.

David Newton: It wouldn't be a comeback for him to do well in the shootout or Daytona.

Ryan Smithson: Bill Elliott is a good pick, and I will tell you why: They badly need a sponsor to help some of their other cars for the whole year, and they need to really have a strong Speedweeks.

Dave Rodman: Actually, Schrader could make something happen -- because it seems to me I remember interviewing him in the post-Shootout garage at least within the last two years.

Marty Smith: It's a plate-race Rodman. If you're on the lead lap, you got a chance to win.

Dave Rodman: Well, you'd have to have a Junior-in-his-prime car to make something happen if it just turns into a freight train.

David Newton: I still say Edwards. He's not afraid to drive the wheels off in this format.

Marty Smith: Neither is anyone else, David, though it's a glorified test.

David Newton: Junior finished third in both Daytona races last year. This doesn't count as a comeback regardless.

Dave Rodman: I was thinking of a comeback with Tony Jr., as in returning to their full-time dominance from back in the day. Sounds funny referring to that in Jr. context, don't it?

Ryan Smithson: I guess Geoff Bodine is sitting this one out. Couldn't skin his Fusion in time.

Marty Smith: Too focused on bobsleds, man. It is the Olympics, after all.

Ryan Smithson: Those things look easy. Except for that really annoying cold weather. That skier in the Visa commercial is cute. Not Bode Miller. The girl.

Marty Smith: She got hurt in the X Games, had to sit.

Ryan Smithson: I wonder if Jimmy Spencer snow skis.

The opinions expressed are solely those of the participants.