 | | Is Tony Stewart cutting it too close this year? Credit: Autostock |
NASCAR.COM
July 20, 2006
09:43 PM EDT (01:43 GMT)
Does Tony Stewart have anything to worry about? Marty Smith: No. He'll make the Chase. It's not like the 20 has run badly. But Stewart must take a more-calculated approach. He has to keep his emotions intact, and if he finds himself in a compromising position, he must be willing to remove himself from it. Ryan Smithson: He'll make the Chase while eating his dinners. He has two consecutive flat tracks and a road course, and he should be top-three for all three of those. He will be fifth or sixth in points after the Glen. David Newton: Anybody from fourth or fifth on back has something to worry about because it doesn't take much to go from the penthouse to the outhouse. His biggest enemy last week was himself, not willing to let Ryan Newman go by. He can't afford to do that the next seven races. Dave Rodman: Maybe not today, but let's check him Sunday evening. Sometimes, these things have a way of snowballing. You could easily say Tony has no problems -- but he doesn't control the other 42 cars on the track with him. Marty Smith: I don't disagree with that, Dave. But that team is strong. If he hadn't lost his temper Sunday, he probably would have battled Rowdy for that win. Ryan Smithson: Well, if he didn't want to peak at the right time, he certainly succeeded. Marty Smith: He's not going to stop being aggressive, guys. That's his approach and will be his approach regardless his points position. He just has to be strategic and use caution-aggression. Dave Rodman: Dawg, that's exactly what my follow-up was going to be. He might have wanted to teach Ryan a lesson by not easily letting him by, but sometimes you have to give a little to not lose a lot. David Newton: Aggressive is OK. But being stubborn and racing somebody too hard just because they pissed you off is another. Marty Smith: He made this disdain known, Dave, for certain. And I think his reaction in the aftermath spoke volumes. He was calm, collected. So I think he realized it was a bad decision in the big picture, but he wanted to make a point and when Stewart wants to make a point, he's going to make it. David Newton: Sounded on the radio like Zippy wasn't too happy with Tony's decision to race Ryan, either. Marty Smith: It killed his car, Newt. I'd be ticked, too. David Newton: Not worth making a point when it puts your season in jeopardy. Marty Smith: I agree 100 percent. Ryan Smithson: The bad thing is, he is going to need every point, and starting the Chase in ninth instead of fourth is a big disadvantage. David Newton: Somebody really good is going to get left out of the Chase. You've got guys that have won four of the last five championships 10th through 14. Ryan Smithson: Someone always does, Newt. Marty Smith: Good thing for the 20 is, if they can fix that car and bring it back in September he could start the Chase with a win. That was a bad-boy piece. Dave Rodman: Some people who were in the stands at Loudon raved about how many good decisions Carl Edwards made -- while racing to second. They aren't Tony haters or lovers, but they made the point the two guys' approaches were way different and had a radically different result. Ryan Smithson: I wonder how Earnhardt will bounce back. Marty Smith: Pocono is tough for Junior, Smithson. Career average finish: 17th. Dave Rodman: I'm much less worried about him than Tony. Ryan Smithson: Rodman, you're crazy if you think he has clinched. I'll bet he barely makes it. Gives NASCAR a heart attack. Dave Rodman: So you're talking about Junior clinching a Chase spot? I didn't say that by any means. I simply said I was less worried about him than about Tony Stewart. David Newton: All Junior needs to do is average between 12-15 the last seven races and he's in. Ryan Smithson: We are all saying Stewart makes it. That means someone gets bumped. Who will it be? Marty Smith: Heaven knows, Smithson. Biffle's scored more points than anybody recently. I think Junior's in. Gordon's team is the best it's been in a long time. David Newton: I'll say Kahne and Harvick will fade. Although the way the points look I doubt both of them will fall out of the Chase. Dave Rodman: I didn't say Tony was a lock. And with the 99, 12 and 2 much further out of there right now -- I'd say Tony's got a real good shot, but Carl is hanging on by his fingernails and the others, well, start saying your prayers. Marty Smith: Edwards has to make up nearly 150 points just to get to 10th, Rodman, that's a lot of leapfrogging. Ryan Smithson: Carl was out of it at this point last year, too. He rallied. Dave Rodman: The deal with Carl is, 10 races ago he was 53 points out of 10th -- now, he is 146. That math definitely doesn't add up. David Newton: Carl's got to have top-fives the rest of the way in to have a realistic shot. Marty Smith: I got word from his crew that they're not changing crew chiefs, by the way. Wally Brown, it seems, is his crew chief for the duration. Ryan Smithson: That was still a good crew chief switch. David Newton: Doesn't make sense to change back. Carl's been as strong as he's been all year with Wally. The problem remains McMurray. He's not doing well with anybody. Marty Smith: The No. 26 is the biggest disappointment in 2006, Newt. Ryan Smithson: Probably not even close, Marty. David Newton: Bigger than Casey Mears not making the Chase, Marty. Just kidding. Can't resist my once-a-week jab at that pick. Marty Smith: Only slight, Newt, only slightly.  |  | | Uh, Tony ... there you go again. Besides, we're moving on to the next segment. Credit: Autostock |
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David Newton: Glad you're taking it in the humor it's meant. Reaction to Elliott Sadler moving to Evernham Motorsports? Marty Smith: Pretty simple: He feels the potential to perform at Evernham is better than at RYR. Ryan Smithson: Good for him. He wasn't going to get the magic back at Yates. That was evident. Marty Smith: I know this much, his fans are behind him 1,000 percent. The e-mail response to that column was slightly insane, and they're all behind him. David Newton: Funny, though, had he not run out of gas last weekend he would have had three top-10s in the last four races. Who at Evernham has done that? David Newton: My question is this: Is Sadler any better of a driver than Mayfield? Ryan Smithson: About the same on paper. Marty Smith: Personally, I'm not sure any of us are qualified to answer that question. David Newton: That's what I'm thinking. Dave Rodman: Jeremy Mayfield made the Chase two years running. That says a lot. Ryan Smithson: Both of them tanked once they made the Chase. David Newton: And just because you get in better equipment doesn't guarantee better results. Please see Jamie McMurray. Ryan Smithson: This season shows the 19 is not better equipment. Next year may be different. Not now though. David Newton: Cause they stripped the team of what made it so good, Ryan. David Newton: Does this come down to Evernham thinking Sadler is more marketable than Mayfield? Just thinking out loud. Marty Smith: Ford loses another marquee name. Tough deal. I accidentally left Jeff Burton out of that column [Tuesday]. They lost him, too. But when he left Ford he hadn't won for years. Dave Rodman: Ryan, you're definitely not qualified to make that statement. Ryan Smithson: Rodman, you're saying the 19 is better equipment than the 38 this year? Dave Rodman: I'm saying we're not qualified to make that statement -- that's why I didn't make it. Ryan Smithson: Well, either get some guts or look at the facts. The 19 hasn't handled well at all this year. At least Sadler has been competitive in half the races. Dave Rodman: All I'm saying is I'm smart enough not to talk out my butt about something I have no way of knowing everything I need to know about. Ryan Smithson: Well, I am. And that 19 Dodge has been running with the Kvapils and the Waltrips every week this year. Marty Smith: It's like most things we report on, we don't know all the intricacies involved behind the curtain. David Newton: But RYR has been throwing all it has into the 38. Not sure that has been the case at EMS with the 19. Ryan Smithson: Guys, the real story is Sadler's dogs. He has 38 of them. Does he cut that number down to 19? And if so, how? Marty Smith: Well, he'll have less Pedigree to feed them. So that helps. David Newton: 19 plus 19 is 38. He can just say he's doubled his efforts.  | | It's OK Elliott, the No. 19 Dodge is used to having dogs around, too. Credit: Autostock |
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Predictions for Pocono? Marty Smith: Stewart wins with Hamlin's June setup. Dave Rodman: Carl Edwards in must-win situation -- does just that. Ryan Smithson: Jimmie Johnson, simply because he's due. Marty Smith: Reed Sorenson keeps digging, inches closer. By the way, you talk about impressive, boys. How about that kid? Ryan Smithson: Stremme has picked it up as well. David Newton: I'll stick with Kurt Busch for the second consecutive week. He was second there in June and was second in laps led to Denny Hamlin. Dave Rodman: Had already started a Ganassi triple-threat story Sunday -- but that idea, uh, kind of ran out of gas. | 
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