 | | "It's how many points back to Kasey?" Credit: Autostock |
By NASCAR.COM
September 7, 2006
04:17 PM EDT (20:17 GMT)
Who will be the odd man out after Richmond and why? Marty Smith: Having to venture a prediction, I'll go with Mark Martin. My gut says Jeff Burton, despite his recent plummet, and Dale Earnhardt Jr. are running well enough to qualify, and I truly think Kasey Kahne will make the show, too. That leaves Martin. Ryan Smithson: Kasey Kahne is such a wild card and has been all year. He either wins or finishes 31st. Obviously, he has won at RIR, and since he's such a momentum driver, I'll be betting that he top-fives it and gets in. Martin is out. David Newton: My gut says Burton, but wouldn't it be wild if Tony Stewart fell out. He seemed to be back on a roll a few weeks ago, but not he's right back on the bubble. Dave Rodman: You know that's impossible to predict -- but since you're making it I'm still going to say Kasey Kahne -- only because I think it's harder to overcome teams that are already in versus maintaining what you have. Marty Smith: Smithson and I agree. Wow. Ryan Smithson: That is the thing. Stewart isn't anywhere near safe. Marty Smith: Thing about Kahne is he can't afford to play conservatively. He must approach Saturday night the way he approached California -- go out, lead as many laps as possible and try to win the race. He can't sit and wait for Martin or Burton to hand him a free pass. David Newton: I'm betting Kahne makes it because he has nothing to lose but be aggressive. The others might be somewhat tentative, and that often can get you in trouble. Dave Rodman: Absolutely, Newt. This is truly a seven-man wild-card showdown throwdown. I don't know that throwing caution to the wind makes you more susceptible to getting in trouble -- but you just can't tell anyhow. David Newton: Kahne's in the same position Mayfield was in two years ago. When you just go for the win and quit worrying about the rest, that's when you're usually at your best. Dave Rodman: Yup, as we've said before, Kenny Francis certainly has that legacy on his resume. Ryan Smithson: If someone -- anyone -- blows a gear, has brake problems, etc., they are out, and Richmond isn't easy on equipment. Dave Rodman: I won't drag him back through the mud, but whoever said there would be no drama at Richmond, I think, was way wrong. David Newton: There's drama, just not on the scale it was the last two years. Marty Smith: I beg to differ. I think there's plenty of drama. No one is safe in positions six through 10, and as Smithson said it all happens fast at Richmond. No one can afford a mishap. Ryan Smithson: Guys, a lot of this weekend will be determined by qualifying draw. An early draw might really hurt a guy like Martin. Qualifying 37th at RIR obviously is much harder to overcome than at Fontana. Marty Smith: Plus the all-important pit selection, Smithson. The pole is rather important this weekend. Dave Rodman: As usual, if you don't qualify well it puts you in a position to get maimed by something crazy going on at the back. Then again, being in front is no guarantee, either. Marty Smith: Everyone in contention typically runs quite well at Richmond, so it's a total crapshoot. David Newton: Just battling for those five bonus points for leading could make for interesting strategy Marty Smith: Might someone gamble on an early pit stop and stay out to get those five points, Newt? David Newton: Exactly what I was thinking Marty. Dave Rodman: Yes sir. It is almost incomprehensible to think someone won't have trouble. That is gonna hurt, big time. But two guys could have trouble, too -- or even more -- so this will be a team night at the races, for sure. Ryan Smithson: Things would be a lot more interesting if the winner received 225 points instead of 185-190. Marty Smith: Think we'll see that next year, Smithson? Ryan Smithson: I am sure of it, but I hope they [NASCAR] don't simply cap it at 200 ... 225 is a lot better. Marty Smith: I don't. At least not that big a jump in points. Possibly 10 more to the winner or something. Ryan Smithson: Kahne would be a lot better shape if he had that. He might miss the Chase with five wins. Amazing. Marty Smith: Ridiculous, Smithson. Just ridiculous. Dave Rodman: They are not consistent enough, so that's the bottom line with that. But getting that many wins -- with a bigger payoff -- could make up for a 30th or two -- and that's OK. David Newton: If NASCAR really wants to make making the Chase interesting, require a win to get in. Burton and Martin might have to leave their gentlemen ways behind if that were true in this one. Dave Rodman: Winning needs to be rewarded to a much greater degree, somehow. Marty Smith: Without question, Rodman. Isn't that what NASCAR said they wanted in the first place with this format -- wins having a greater impact? They don't. Tony Stewart won the Chase last year without a win, proved it could be done. Dave Rodman: Yup -- so now I hope they put their money where their mouth went. Ryan Smithson: Newt, as long as anyone with a win or two isn't eligible. One of these days, a ringer will win Sonoma, so what then? David Newton: Yeah, you'd have to make some sort of exception for the road-course wins. Heck, just throw the road courses out all together. Dave Rodman: Never. They ought to put a road course in the Chase. Marty Smith: Throw the road courses out? No way man. Add one to the Chase. I talked to Jeff Gordon about that at Michigan, he said Watkins Glen is perfect because it's wider and less technical for the drivers. Ryan Smithson: Watkins Glen would obviously have to be one of the first Chase races due to weather. But the 2007 schedule is already out, so this argument is a long way away. Marty Smith: Snow tires. Chains. Coma-a-longs. David Newton: If they put one in the Chase I have no problem with having road courses. But as long as there's not one in the Chase, why bother during the regular season. Marty Smith: You have to perform on them to get to the Chase, Newt. See: Kasey Kahne. Ryan Smithson: It is very interesting that we are in the third year of the Chase and this is easily the one with the least drama. The first year of the Chase had 14 guys eligible with 100 laps to go. David Newton: Yeah, that was real drama. Should Robert Yates open up to Robby Gordon and merge with his operation? Ryan Smithson: Those two need to team up. It would assure RYR at least two possible wins a year [road courses] and it would give Robby a real shot at winning a plate race. Marty Smith: I don't see why not. Both sides need depth terribly, and since Ford is on board and Robby can switch manufacturers, it seems a viable marriage. And Robert said he's open to offering up ownership stake. It seems a no-brainer. David Newton: Heck, Robby would be RYR's biggest name if they did that. Ryan Smithson: Robby sounds like he really wants those motors in the Yates shop. Marty Smith: Without question, Smithson. He'd love those horses. David Newton: Half the garage would like those horses. Marty Smith: More than half, Newt. Dave Rodman: On the surface, it seems like it would definitely help both organizations -- though I think Robby would stand to gain more from it than RYR, especially from the get-go. But there's nothing wrong with that. Ryan Smithson: Robby has nearly 70 employees. Amazing. He had 25 last year. He really has done a good job this year. Marty Smith: I was struck when he said that, too, Smithson. What he's done is amazing. David Newton: You're right, but Robby would get a lot more out of the deal just like Roush got more out of the engine deal. Dave Rodman: They have made tremendous gains, so with more manufacturer support and more information exchange, there's no telling what RGM could do. Marty Smith: To be on an island in this thing is a tough place to be, piranhas everywhere, and yet he's swimming with the big dogs. Ryan Smithson: Robby can bring Yates some funding though. Lord knows RYR needs some of that. Dave Rodman: But he can't make that a drain. If his car is solid, they don't need to halve that to keep the 88 floating. Marty Smith: But they want to, Dave. Everyone says three cars is the way to go. Ryan Smithson: They'd need four eventually, though. Dave Rodman: They absolutely need to be at three cars -- just not to the detriment of either of the financially solid ones.  |  | | "I've won Cup races this year and people have quit talking about me, so don't worry David." Credit: Autostock |
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| Richmond Predictions |
| Smacker |
Pick |
| Marty |
Kyle Busch |
| Rodman |
Dale Earnhardt Jr. |
| Newt |
Kasey Kahne |
| Smithson |
Denny Hamlin |
|
|
Marty Smith: No. 88 Fruit of the Loom Fusion. Ryan Smithson: Fruit of the Loom. Bowling Green, Ky. David Newton: Mixing Fruit of the Loom with a car that is brown isn't a pleasing thought at the moment. Marty Smith: HA! Ryan Smithson: Oh lord. Nice line. David Newton: My mind works in strange ways sometimes. Ryan Smithson: Skid marks, Newt. Marty Smith: Racing stripes, Newt. David Newton: You said it, I thought it. Predictions for Richmond? Marty Smith: Kyle Busch wins. The No. 5 team is peaking at the right time. He could be the man to beat in the Chase. Dave Rodman: Dale Earnhardt Jr. back in Victory Lane at the little superspeedway that could. And they've proven they can the last couple weeks. Marty Smith: The May race cemented Earnhardt's return to the elite, no doubt, Rodman. David Newton: Dang, I was going to pick him Rodman. Now I have to go another direction. I'll stick with the hot hand and go with Kahne. Ryan Smithson: Harvick dominated there in the spring. But I am going to go with Denny Hamlin. I want to see Harvick jump on someone's hood again. Marty Smith: Hamlin wins, that place would go insane. Dave Rodman: I tell you what -- those are all great picks -- so we're all winners. Marty Smith: And that means Kenseth goes to Victory Lane. The opinions expresses are solely of the participants. | 
