"Let's wait a couple laps, then we'll move down!" Credit: Autostock

Track Smack: TV and the COT, Juan and Casey

1. NASCAR's television ratings declined slightly in 2006. Is it a major problem or a bump in the road?

Dave Rodman: I read an interesting column the other day that provided a different perspective but the point was, in the face of what was an interesting championship, seats continue to be empty and ratings continue to go down.

David Newton: Too early to tell if it's a major problem. Yes, the ratings were down, but according to Brian France 34 of the races were either No. 1 or 2 in the sports that day. So I'd say stay tuned.

Ryan Smithson: One of the things that is bad is that TV production, like team costs, has risen dramatically. It takes hundreds of people. All have to paid, fed and housed. And NASCAR should make sure that TV is profitable for the networks.

Duane Cross: I think ratings will level off -- ESPN/ABC will not spike the numbers. NASCAR is no different -- viewership-wise -- than any other sport. Put on a good product and it'll get eyeballs.

Dave Rodman: If I was NASCAR, I'd be strategizing over how to fix that more than I would over signing a deal for my "official breakfast bar."

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Ryan Smithson: I really feel part of it is that fans got too used to having 39 events on television. The fans can get burned out easily, which make them less likely to watch.

Dave Rodman: Has anyone yet seen anything on the ratings for Homestead? That would be a somewhat telling stat, considering there were a few compelling storylines.

Ryan Smithson: It was down 10 percent. It didn't even draw a 5.

David Newton: Hockey, baseball and the NBA would love to have NASCAR's numbers, though.

Duane Cross: We'll see how fans react to the Car of Tomorrow. If it tanks, the ratings will reflect that, which doesn't bode well for the fall. If the COT racing isn't good, what does that say for half the Chase races -- when football is still the biggest game in town?

David Newton: If they want to bump the numbers back up, move the start time back to noon and get that audience before the NFL games come on.

Beware the warning signs! Credit: Autostock

Ryan Smithson: If fans think that ESPN/ABC will have fewer commercials, they are crazy.

Duane Cross: True, Newt -- but NASCAR isn't competing for NHL, MLB or NBA. NASCAR wants NFL numbers, and the numbers just aren't there.

David Newton: It'll never get NFL numbers.

Duane Cross: Nope -- not even with noon race starts and shorter races.

Dave Rodman: I don't really see that COT racing will be dramatically different than anything we have now. At least not in 2007 it won't be. The tracks the COT is racing at are not your high-speed, aero-sensitive racetracks, so it will be same-old same-old if you compare 2007 to 2006 -- racing-wise.

Ryan Smithson: The irony of all this is that the production of the races is better than ever.

David Newton: If anything, people might tune in just because of the COT, to see if it's going to fail or make racing better -- at least initially.

Dave Rodman: Despite NASCAR's numbers, the fan pool for racing versus football will never be anywhere close. Football will outweigh racing about like NASCAR is currently outweighing every other motorsport.

Duane Cross: That remains to be seen, Dave. Fans aren't on board with the COT. And who knows if they ever will be. I'm merely saying that there's a lot of change going on right now -- and the TV numbers reflect that.

Dave Rodman: For one race, maybe.

David Newton: The football appeal goes beyond the games. It goes deep into gambling and fantasy football.

Ryan Smithson: Newt watches his fantasy football team during caution laps.

David Newton: No, Ryan, I watch it during the racing laps. The cautions are more exciting. ... NASCAR still barely draws a blip in Vegas. But spend an NFL Sunday there. Geez.

Dave Rodman: Great points, Newt. Even though the same applications are available to racing, they are nowhere near at the impact level -- but that goes back to fan base.

Ryan Smithson: We didn't have very good racing this year. We had a half dozen good races.

Duane Cross: Which also goes back to eyeballs in front of the TV. And this year, there was a drop in eyeballs. Next year -- and Smithson touched on it earlier -- there will be plenty of commercials on the broadcasts.

Duane Cross: TV deals aren't cheap; someone has to pay for the rights fees. Hello, commercials!

Ryan Smithson: Those are here to stay.

Duane Cross: An abundance of them are here to stay.

David Newton: The commercials were the best part of several races.

Dave Rodman: That distracts people badly, if they are even watching to begin with. And they have a bad rap right now -- although obviously they are a necessary evil.

Ryan Smithson: Yeah, but they get old quickly, Newt.

Duane Cross: "Oh, Denny ..."

Ryan Smithson: I really wanted those cookies.

2. Impressions on Juan Montoya's debut?

Dave Rodman: NASCAR needs to put spring-loaded panels in select walls at different racetracks. If a car hits 'em -- boom! Up pops a sponsor's billboard -- instant exposure.

Ryan Smithson: He looked really good in the car. He raced side-by-side with people all day and did well. I wish I had walked over and looked at how he pitted the car.

Duane Cross: He will be fine -- in 2008. Next year will be a learning experience, of course. I don't think he'll qualify for the Chase as a rookie, but no one thought Denny Hamlin would, either.

Ryan Smithson: Denny's team is much better than Juan's, Duane.

"Hey 42, pull over! That's my ride now!" Credit: Autostock

David Newton: He was right there with Casey Mears until late, so I think he'll be fine. His biggest problems remain in the pits, but they'll get that ironed out with experience from him and a full-time pit crew.

Duane Cross: True -- but no one thought Denny would make the Chase.

Ryan Smithson: I did. I called it.

Duane Cross: Uhhh ... OK.

Ryan Smithson: You remember, right? Or did I say Tony Stewart?

Duane Cross: We've already looked (and laughed) at the preseason predictions.

Dave Rodman: I think he'll safely stay in the top 35 and he will run really well at times. But Sunday night was a bad preview of what's probably going to happen a lot.

Ryan Smithson: Oh, Lord. Everyone that needs a good laugh needs to look at my preseason predictions. (Here's the link.) It's truly awful. ... I was right about Michael Waltrip having a disastrous year, though.

Hard crashJuan Montoya's debut ends abruptly on Lap 251 Bright futureDenny Hamlin looks forward to a future championship Sign up for TrackPass now BUY THE NEXTEL i836

David Newton: Yeah, you went out on a limb with that one, Ryan. Who would have thought (wink)?

Dave Rodman: I didn't see the replay and I heard they weren't the greatest -- but reading Ryan Newman's comments it appears he might not have cut him much slack.

Ryan Smithson: Hey, he is a former Daytona 500 champ! That means everything, right?

Dave Rodman: Two-time. Means something.

Ryan Smithson: One and a half. One was rained out

Dave Rodman: Just delayed the inevitable (probably).

Ryan Smithson: I am truly touched you remembered that, Duane.

Duane Cross: I remember all ... know little, but remember all ;-)

Ryan Smithson: Actually, they were not that bad. I said Boris Said would win a race and he nearly did. I said that Brian Vickers would win. He did. I also said that Johnson wouldn't finish in the top five in points. Ouch! What a year he had.

While Juan still will be learning, Casey will be yearning in '07 ... for that first Cup victory. Credit: Autostock

Duane Cross: So in 2007 -- who has a better year: Juan or Mears with Rick Hendrick?

Ryan Smithson: Mears. He is the most underrated driver out there.

David Newton: I'd go with Mears because he'll be in better equipment.

Ryan Smithson: I can't wait to see what he does with a good motor.

David Newton: So you're saying Mears is more talented than Montoya, who has won an Indy 500?

Dave Rodman: If Casey and Lance McGrew hit it off, it will be Mears in a landslide. His performance Sunday was pretty impressive and it was a damned shame they did not get the top-10 they deserved.

Ryan Smithson: At this point, Mears has more stock-car talent, absolutely, Newt.

Duane Cross: Agree. Agree. Agree. He'll be fun to watch next year. Many folks will have him in their Chase list.

David Newton: Did Mears blow his engine on purpose at Homestead?

Dave Rodman: Absolutely not.

Ryan Smithson: That is a wonderful question. Very debatable. ... Rodman, don't kid yourself.

Dave Rodman: If he did, he would have been gone from the garage before I got there -- and I was standing next to his car when he parked it.

Ryan Smithson: Robert Duvall should have been there to flip the switch by the tach.

Ryan Smithson: "Done it deliberate!"

Duane Cross: How could he have been gone before you got there ... if you were already there as he was parking it?

David Newton: Good point.

Dave Rodman: Montoya will be a blast to watch -- he might even win a race. But I think Casey will outrun him in the standings.

Duane Cross: I'm confused.

"OK Brian, the keys please?" Credit: Autostock

David Newton: That's like which came first, the chicken or the egg?

Ryan Smithson: Rodman, you were eating cashews.

Dave Rodman: If he stopped on pit road and got out.

David Newton: Or if he'd left it in the middle of the track and run up through the grandstands.

Dave Rodman: There's no way he blew that thing up on purpose after all the effort he put into that race.

Ryan Smithson: Weird stat of the day: Mears blows motor, moves to 14th in the standings.

Dave Rodman: If that was the case he would have blown up in 30th when it was running like a turd.

Ryan Smithson: That was his first blown motor in almost three years, Rodman.

Dave Rodman: You guys need to get a grip now that the season is over. ... So you're saying it wasn't due to happen, Smitty?

David Newton: Did he seem upset, Rodman?

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Ryan Smithson: I could build a circumstantial case. ... But, you know, maybe he did. Reed Sorenson exploded one Saturday night. But it was good timing.

Duane Cross: And man, Reed still held on to 10th in Busch points to end Kenny Wallace's streak of top-10 points finishes. Sad.

Dave Rodman: He was very disappointed, both for himself and for his guys, who had worked so hard -- not only in that race but all season.

Duane Cross: Is there a third question?

Ryan Smithson: Yeah, why does Rodman answer so slowly?

Ryan Smithson: Just kidding. It was a good year.

Dave Rodman: Eating Brazil nuts, man.

Duane Cross: Hehehe -- Brazil nuts ... how apropos.

Dave Rodman: Sort of.

David Newton: You're all nuts. ... Happy Thanksgiving!

The opinions expressed are soley of the participants.