Kevin Harvick is smiling now; he's third in points. Credit: Autostock

The inside dope: Fontana

→ Race No.: 25 of 36
→ This Week: Sony HD 500
→ Track: California Speedway
→ TV: 7 p.m. Sunday, NBC

• Only 48 points separate Pos. 4-10 in the point standings.

• Only 138 points separate Pos. 4-11.

• A driver can gain a maximum of 156 points over another competitor in each event.

• The 11th-place driver, Kasey Kahne, can move as high as fourth in the standings following Sunday's Sony HD 500 at California Speedway.

• Any driver in Pos. 4-10 can fall from the top 10 following Sunday's event.

• Drivers in positions Pos. 4-10 can clinch a spot in the Chase for the Nextel Cup following Sunday's event.

• No top-10 driver will be mathematically eliminated from the Chase even if he finishes 43rd (last) at California.

• Kevin Harvick will clinch a Chase berth with a finish of third or better in Sunday's event, no matter where another competitor finishes.

• Harvick also can clinch if he finishes lower than third, as long as his advantage over 11th place is 191 points or greater after the Sony HD 500.

• Harvick can fall as low as 10th in the standings following Sunday's event.

• Also important: Top-10 drivers are racing for the highest finish in the standings before the Chase begins. Although the point separation to start the Chase is a mere five points per position, the 2004 series title was decided by eight points. The 2005 title margin was 35 points.

• The sports statistics experts at STATS LLC have calculated 574,560 different possibilities for the order of the top 11 drivers following Sunday's event.

• Any driver with a lead of 191 points or more over 11th place following Sunday's event will clinch a spot in the Chase.