Despite Kahne's three wins on intermediate tracks this year, he does not have the best average finish. Credit: Autostock

Kahne's odds long -- even at 1.5-mile tracks

Kasey Kahne won three of the five races on 1.5-mile tracks leading into the Chase. Conventional wisdom says -- despite being in ninth place, 182 points behind -- the first-year Chaser still has hopes of hoisting the Nextel Cup at Homestead-Miami.

Chase for the Nextel Cup After Dover (2nd of 10 races) Pos. +/- Driver Behind 1. +4 Jeff Burton Leader 2. +2 Jeff Gordon -6 3. -- Matt Kenseth -18 4. -2 Denny Hamlin -18 5. -4 Kevin Harvick -54 6. -- Mark Martin -75 7. -- D. Earnhardt Jr. -102 8. +1 Jimmie Johnson -136 9. -1 Kasey Kahne -182 10. -- Kyle Busch -224 • Complete standings, click here Heavy damageKahne wiped out by Stewart; Chase hopes take a hit Sign up for TrackPass now BUY THE NEXTEL i836

Not so fast.

While Kahne has made intermediate tracks his personal playground, it's not like the other nine Chase drivers have tanked in those races. In fact, no less than five title hopefuls have finished in the top 10 at the five 1.5-mile tracks this year, with no fewer than four in the top five in each of the races.

What's worse: Those are the same drivers Kahne must leapfrog during the next eight races.

So with such a daunting task at hand, the No. 9 team is bringing its silver bullet to Kansas: Chassis No. 128 -- the chassis on which Kahne has posted all five of his wins this season.

"I know Kenny [Francis, team director] and the crew will have a great car at Kansas," Kahne said. "We've run well at Kansas in the past. That's the next race; that's our next opportunity to get a win. We're ready."

He'd better be ready, because the other eight Chase drivers with title aspirations also excel on 1.5-mile tracks. (Kyle Busch is out of the equation after his 40th-place finish at Dover; he's 224 points behind.)

Which driver, more than 100 points behind, is most likely to make a run at the Chase title? D. Earnhardt Jr. (-102) J. Johnson (-136) K. Kahne (-182) Kyle Busch (-224)

Despite Kahne's three wins on intermediate tracks this year, he does not have the best average finish. That honor goes to Jimmie Johnson, who has not finished worse than 11th in those five races. And did we mention that Johnson is one of the eight drivers Kahne must motor past to win the Cup?

If Kahne manages to win -- or even finish in the top five -- while the rest of the Chase contenders also post top-fives or top-10s, he's treading water.

"We've had disappointing finishes in the first two races in the Chase," Kahne said. "The accident last week [at Dover] was a devastating blow to our title hopes. Those things happen. We're disappointed, but there are eight races left.

"We'll regroup just fine. Maybe we'll dominate the last eight races, who knows?"

History says, perhaps, we do know.