 | | Tony Stewart grimaces at the thought of another second-place finish at 'Dega; he wants a win there. Credit: Autostock |
By Dan Beaver, Special to NASCAR.COM
October 5, 2006
05:16 PM EDT (21:16 GMT)
The "Big One" is much more likely to occur in the spring Talladega Superspeedway race than in the fall. Since the start of the 2000 season, the biggest crash in this race has damaged only 4.8 cars on average, while in the spring that number is 16.7. On three occasions in the last five years, the "Big One" in the early race claimed more than half the field, with 27 cars getting gobbled up on Lap 5 of the 2003 Aaron's 499 as the one with the most carnage, while the biggest fall crash in that same span of races came in this event last year when eight cars crashed together on Lap 66.  |  | | Jimmie Johnson got his first 'Dega win earlier this year. Credit: Autostock |
| |
| Fantasy Power Ranking |
Superspeedways
('Dega & Daytona)
Past Three Years |
| Pos. |
Driver |
Power Avg. |
| 1. |
J. Johnson |
6.37 |
| 2. |
T. Stewart |
6.49 |
| 3. |
J. Gordon |
7.64 |
| 4. |
D. Earnhardt Jr. |
8.09 |
| 5. |
Ku. Busch |
10.50 |
| 6. |
J. McMurray |
12.26 |
| 7. |
K. Harvick |
12.35 |
| 8. |
M. Kenseth |
12.53 |
| 9. |
E. Sadler |
13.70 |
| 10. |
R. Newman |
14.94 |
| 11. |
J. Burton |
15.54 |
| 12. |
B. Vickers |
16.09 |
| 13. |
M. Waltrip |
16.81 |
| 14. |
D. Jarrett |
18.27 |
| 15. |
M. Martin |
18.29 |
| 16. |
G. Biffle |
19.38 |
| 17. |
C. Mears |
19.60 |
| 18. |
Ky. Busch |
19.65 |
| 19. |
C. Edwards |
19.90 |
| 20. |
J. Nemechek |
20.13 |
| 21. |
M. Truex Jr. |
20.52 |
| 22. |
D. Hamlin |
20.84 |
| 23. |
S. Riggs |
20.91 |
| 24. |
B. Labonte |
21.69 |
| 25. |
C. Bowyer |
22.06 |
| 26. |
R. Gordon |
22.40 |
| 27. |
D. Blaney |
22.80 |
| 28. |
S. Marlin |
22.89 |
| 29. |
R. Sorenson |
23.39 |
| 30. |
T. Bodine |
23.50 |
| 31. |
K. Kahne |
24.51 |
| 32. |
M. Wallace |
24.54 |
| 33. |
J.J. Yeley |
24.90 |
| 34. |
K. Schrader |
28.08 |
| 35. |
T. Kvapil |
28.20 |
| 36. |
T. Raines |
29.50 |
| 37. |
M. Bliss |
30.00 |
| 38. |
D. Stremme |
30.53 |
| 39. |
J. Green |
31.47 |
| 40. |
K. Wallace |
31.52 |
| 41. |
K. Petty |
32.25 |
| 42. |
P. Menard |
32.57 |
| 43. |
E. McClure |
32.63 |
| 44. |
D. Cope |
33.83 |
| 45. |
H. Sadler |
37.54 |
| 46. |
C. Chaffin |
38.00 |
| 47. |
C. Blount |
38.60 |
| 48. |
K. Shelmerdine |
38.75 |
|
 |
Even if the "Big One" does not occur, there is plenty of drama to accompany the leaders. A race at Talladega is a high-speed game of Chess, but instead of one opponent the driver has to protect against 42 others. This spring, Jeff Gordon dominated the Aaron's 499 by leading 62 laps -- the most of the day -- and spending the most time in the top-five (134 laps). He was leading on Lap 186 with two to go, when he got nosed out of the draft by his teammate Brian Vickers. In part because of the strength he had already shown, Gordon couldn't find a drafting partner to help him remain in the lead pack. Elliott Sadler spent the second-most laps among the top-five at 114 and was likewise shuffled out of the lead pack late in the race. When Gordon fell far enough, Sadler was the only driver to catch him and the two strongest cars during the race crossed the line 15th and 16th, respectively. Don't count your points until the checkers wave. The Favorites A little stealth goes a long way. As erratic as he can sometimes be on other tracks, Kurt Busch holds a steady wheel on the Superspeedways in general and at Talladega in particular. Since finishing third here in his inaugural trip in 2001, Busch has finished worse than eighth only three times in 11 tries. Four of these were top-five finishes and his last four consecutive attempts on this 2.66-mile track have been in the top-10. In the last three years, he has spent 624 laps in the top-five on Superspeedways, but his name doesn't get called very often. One could almost make him a dark horse, but his consistency is going to pay off with a victory on the big tracks very soon. Tony Stewart is tired of being the bridesmaid at Talladega. In 15 career attempts, he has finished in the runner-up spot six times, including the last three events. Stewart shed a similar role at the sister track of Daytona International Speedway last summer when he dominated the Pepsi 400 after winning the pole; he won again this summer in that same race from the outside of the front row. Now that he's figured out how to make that final pass with the aid of the draft, Stewart will put the knowledge to use at Talladega. Still, he is smart enough to settle for a top-five if he doesn't think he has enough help to get to the front. Dark Horses By all rights, Gordon, Jimmie Johnson and Dale Earnhardt Jr. should be favorites this weekend, but they have big "x's" on their back bumpers. Each of these drivers has been incredibly successful on the big tracks -- so much so that their race-day statistics can be rattled off by even the casual fantasy owner -- but the spring Talladega race proved that strength is not necessarily the deciding factor in who wins. These three drivers deserve a spot on your roster, however, because even if they cannot get the help late in the race to cross the finish line first, they will probably be in the lead pack. There have been 1,957 laps of competition on the Superspeedways since the start of the 2004 season -- including the qualification races for the Daytona 500 -- of which Gordon (1,030) and Johnson (1,013) are the only drivers to spend more than 50 percent of them in the top-five. Earnhardt is a distant fourth with 710 top-five laps, but a lot of the reason for that is because he has experienced trouble in the last couple Talladega races. In effect, any driver in the field can be a dark horse. Kevin Lepage proved as much last year when he took the lightly funded John Carter No. 37 to a ninth-place finish in the Daytona 500. If the "Big One" is large enough, top-10s go to the last men standing, but fantasy owners still have to do this one by the numbers. Michael Waltrip has been running better than his results show in recent weeks. What makes this more frustrating still, is that he continues to have difficulty qualifying in large fields -- and 49 entrants are on tap for the UAW-Ford 500 -- but once he is in the show, he has recorded some decent finishes in the last two months. Waltrip has finished in the 20s in three of the last six races for which he qualified, and topped out with a 16th at Bristol Motor Speedway in August. These strong efforts must restore some confidence just in time to come to a track he once dominated, and if he can tuck into the draft, he might just earn his first top-10 of the season. Underdogs Rookies are typically a bad bet on the big tracks. So far this season, the usually stellar crop of young drivers have posted their worst average finish in Bristol's August race with a result of 31.0, but close on its heels was the first Talladega event with an average finish of 30.9. Both Daytona races are also below their season-long average of 24.5, with the Daytona 500 coming in at 28.3 and the Pepsi 400 at 25.4. In part this is due to their lack of experience in the draft that makes them so easy to shake, and in part it is because they too often make those little mistakes that have such big consequences. The other drivers to avoid are those who are star-crossed on the big tracks. Carl Edwards has been swept into more multi-car accidents, in eight starts, than any other driver with a total of six massive melees. Often, he affects repairs to his Ford by crashing a second time during the race, and while he does have three top-15 finishes when he's kept his fenders relatively intact, he is just not worth the risk. When Scott Riggs missed the Daytona 500 in February, it was probably for the best since he has the second-greatest crash percentage in the field. Like Edwards, Riggs has experienced six accidents in the last three rolling years, but he has 10 attempts in that span. The restrictor-plate Superspeedways can smell desperation on a driver, and after finishing 34th or 35th in each of his last three attempts in 2006, Riggs has that distinctive odor. | 
