Tony Stewart, who won the spring race at Martinsville, has the highest Driver Rating this weekend. Credit: Autostock

Gordon's got the wins, but Stewart's No. 1

DAYTONA BEACH, Fla. -- Jeff Gordon has won seven times at Martinsville Speedway, but Tony Stewart has the better Driver Rating.

Stewart's Rating is 136.3, compared to Gordon's 121.9, which may be surprising until you look closer at the Loop Data statistics.

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Stewart's victory in the spring, coupled with his top placing in Average Running Position, his percentage of Quality Passes and number of Fastest Laps gives him the advantage over Gordon, even though Gordon has finished first, first and second in the last three races there.

The remainder of the top five includes Rusty Wallace, Jimmie Johnson and Ricky Rudd. Of course, Wallace and Rudd won't be racing in Sunday's Subway 500.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. is 16th in Driver Ratings, but he's first in a couple of key categories. He's made 182 green flag passes in the last three Martinsville races, and led all drivers with 85 quality passes over that stretch.

Relying on Driver Ratings

The pre-race Driver Rating has been remarkably accurate in predicting strong performances. In fact, the data shows that the driver with the top pre-race Driver Rating for a track can reasonably be predicted to finish in the top seven at the same track.

Further proof of the validity of the pre-race Driver Rating: A race winner has had the highest pre-race Driver Rating seven times this season.

In cases where the top-rated driver does not finish first, it is safe to say he will finish near the front. For example:

• The driver with the top pre-race Driver Rating has finished in the top five in 18 of the 31 races run in 2006.

• Additionally, the driver with the top pre-race Driver Rating has finished in the top seven in 21 of the 31 races this season.

There have been a handful of cases where the highest-rated driver did not finish near the front. In six of the 31 races, the driver with the top pre-race Driver Rating had car problems or got caught up in an incident on the track, relegating him to a 36th or worse finish in those races.

In just four of 31 races has the driver with the top pre-race Driver Rating finished lower than seventh and not had a mechanical problem or accident which resulted in a poor finish. These finishes were 22nd, 24th, 24th and 28th. However, even all four of these finishes can be attributable to other factors:

• At Phoenix, Kurt Busch was with a new team and finished 24th.

• At Infineon, Tony Stewart had car problems over approximately the last 15-20 laps and fell from second to 28th while nursing the car to the finish.

• At Chicago, Matt Kenseth was running first with 27 laps to go and had to nurse the car to a 22nd-place finish.

• At California in February, Greg Biffle was the race leader until blowing an engine on Lap 229, resulting in a DNF and 42nd-place finish.

• Driver Rating is so good at predicting that a driver will finish well that no top-rated driver has finished between eighth and 21st this season.

Race winners have also had a strong pre-race Driver Rating this season. In addition to the top-rated driver winning seven times this season many of the race winners have had Driver Ratings that have ranked in the top 12 of the pre-race report. For example:

• The race winner has had a pre-race Driver Rating ranking in the top four in 12 of the 31 races.

• The race winner has had a pre-race Driver Rating ranking in the top 10 in 17 of the 31 races.

• The race winner has had a pre-race Driver Rating ranking in the top 12 in 23 of the 31 races.

In only eight of the 30 races has the race winner had a ranking below the top 12 in the pre-race Driver Rating. Some factors include:

• At Pocono in June, Denny Hamlin won as a rookie, so he had no pre-race Driver Rating.

• At Chicagoland, Indianapolis and Infineon, there was only one race factored into the pre-race Driver Rating, making the predictability less valid. These rankings were 19, 26 and 34.

• At Atlanta, Kasey Kahne (14th in the pre-race Driver Rating) began to use a new car that eventually won five races this year. He also won at Lowe's in this same car, where he was ranked 19th in the pre-race Driver Rating.

• At Talladega in April, race winner Jimmie Johnson was ranked 17th in the pre-race Driver Rating. However, his top-ranked pre-race Driver Rating at Daytona shows his prowess on NASCAR's only other restrictor-plate track.

Dale Earnhardt Jr.'s win at Richmond is the only race where it appears that Driver Rating was not a reliable predictor at a track where at least two races had taken place.

Loop Logic

• The average top Driver Rating for 2006 is 129.0. The average finish for the top rated pre-race driver is 12.933.

• The average Driver Rating of the winning driver in 2006 is 98.2. The average pre-race Driver Rating rank for the winning driver is 9.5.