Jimmie Johnson qualified 15th at Homestead; he needs only to improve three more spots to win the Cup title. Credit: Autostock

Johnson begins title run from 15th starting spot

HOMESTEAD, Fla. -- Homestead-Miami Speedway has not been particularly kind to the drivers in the Chase. None of the 10 have ever won on the 1.5-mile oval.

In fact, if you go by the numbers, it's been a bad track for everyone but Tony Stewart, and he's not even in the Chase this year.

Kevin Harvick is the only driver still eligible for the title starting in the top 10. Credit: CIA Stock Photo

Ford 400 Chase qualifiers Pos. Pts. Driver Time Speed 1. 9. Kahne 178.259 30.293 3. 10. Busch 178.118 30.317 5. 7. Burton 177.983 30.340 7. 3. Harvick 177.270 30.462 12. 6. Gordon 176.840 30.536 14. 5. Junior 176.621 30.574 15. 1. Johnson 176.569 30.583 19. 2. Kenseth 176.344 30.622 26. 8. Martin 175.879 30.703 33. 4. Hamlin 175.359 30.794 • Complete lineup, click here SUPERSTORE •   2006 Chase merchandise!

The best numbers come from a pair of first-time Chasers with a combined three starts at HMS -- Kasey Kahne and Kyle Busch -- with some decent numbers from Kevin Harvick and Jeff Gordon.

With the title on the line, what to primary contenders Jimmie Johnson and Matt Kenseth have to show? For Johnson, who will start 15th after a lap at 30.583 seconds, 176.569 mph, his averages are a pedestrian 25.400 for starts (eighth) and 15.600 for finishes (fifth).

Johnson has to finish 12th or better to clinch the title without leading a lap, so that means he'll have to hit better than his average to clinch it without other factors being considered.

As for Kenseth, who will start 19th by virtue of his lap at 30.622 seconds, 176.344 mph, it's even worse. His average start is ninth among Chasers (26.000) and his average finish is a seventh-best -- but consistent -- 25.500.

Kenseth has to gain 64 points on Johnson -- which means something untoward must happen to the 48 for him to have a shot.

Among the rest of the Chasers with a chance to hoist the Cup on Sunday, Kevin Harvick put down a lap at 30.462 seconds, 177.270 mph to earn seventh on the grid. His starting average of 15.600 is fourth among Chasers, and his 9.400 finishing average is tops.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. ran a solid lap at 30.574 seconds, 176.621 mph to earn the 14th spot on Sunday. That's better than his average of 20.833 (sixth) and he finishes at a 19.166 clip, also sixth among Chasers.

Denny Hamlin fared the worst of the contenders, as his lap at 30.794 seconds, 175.359 mph put him 33rd in the field. The ironic thing is, that's better than his starting average, a Chase-worst 42.000 in his lone start there. His average finish is 33.000, ninth of the 10, and trailed only by Busch's 41.000.

Kasey Kahne pulled the usual rabbit out from under the hood of his Dodge, clicking off a lap at 30.293 seconds, 178.259 mph to earn the pole for the Ford 400. In the process, he tied Kurt Busch with six poles this season and won the award on a tiebreaker.

Eye on the prizeJohnson will chase his first NNC title from the 15th starting spot Middle of the packMatt Kenseth will start the Ford 400 from the 19th position Pole winnerKasey Kahne will lead the field to green in the season's final race Sign up for TrackPass now BUY THE NEXTEL i836

Kahne is the best in the Chase in terms of average start with a gaudy 3.500, but his finishing average is a dismal 27.000, good for eighth out of the 10.

Kyle Busch, whose average start at HMS is a baroque 4.000 (in only one start), clicked off a lap at 30.317 seconds, 178.118 mph to grab third on Sunday. His finishing average is a bit more modest, a Chase-worst 41.000.

Jeff Burton wound up and let loose with a lap at 30.340 seconds, 177.983 mph to grab fifth. Burton doesn't qualify well at a lot of places, and Homestead is one of them. His average of 24.285 is seventh among the Chasers, but he finishes at an average of 13.714, good for fourth.

Jeff Gordon will start 12th on Sunday after his lap of 30.530 seconds, 176.940 mph. Gordon's average start is 15.428, good for third among the Chase crew, and his finishing average is a stout 9.571, second to Harvick's 9.400.

Mark Martin, making his last start for Jack Roush after 19 years, wound up 26th. His lap at 30.703 seconds, 175.879 mph was slightly worse than his average start of 18.000 (fifth) and his finishing average is a third-best 11.571.

In an odd twist, four Chasers will start nose-to-tail at the front on the inside line, with Kahne (first), Busch (third), Burton (fifth) and Harvick (seventh) all in a row. Seven Chasers made the top 15.

The Dodge was on top again, followed by six of the seven Chevrolets, two Fords and the remaining Chevy.