 | | Kevin Harvick has failed to make the Chase the past two seasons. Will 2006 be the charm? Credit: Autostock |
NASCAR.COM
February 5, 2006
11:14 AM EST (16:14 GMT)
In projecting which drivers will miss the Chase -- or struggle mightily once in it -- NASCAR.COM gazes into the exhaust pipe to project the top disappointments to come before the checkers at Homestead: Dave Rodman Jamie McMurray: He is the odd man out, only because he is the latest to join Roush Racing. How McMurray meshes with effective crew chief Jimmy Fennig -- who was a huge part of getting a championship for Kurt Busch and two consecutive appearances in the Chase for the Nextel Cup -- will determine whether McMurray's on the outside looking in, or it's one of his other Roush teammates in that position.  | 
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Dale Jarrett: He could be exchanged for Robert Yates Racing teammate Elliott Sadler in this spot -- and this indicates just how harsh Cup racing has become. RYR has improved Sadler and Jarrett's chances to get into the Chase for the Nextel Cup with major personnel moves -- but the problem with the scenario: Who do they move out to get both of them in? Kevin Harvick: He's not at the top of the list because he is the most likely to fail. He sits in this position because he is most likely to get into the top 10, which in just two seasons has become one of the most difficult plateaus to attain in sports. Signing his contract extension with Richard Childress Racing will be critical in determining whether Harvick's season is really a disappointment -- which would be his third in a row -- or the success of getting into the Chase for the Nextel Cup. Jarrod Breeze Casey Mears: Taking over Chip Ganassi's No. 42 is akin to being the NIT champion in basketball. Kurt Busch: He got what he wanted personally and financially but he gave up a lot to get it. Carl Edwards: It's hard to say that someone who finished third in the Chase in what was in essence his first year in the Cup Series will be a disappointment the following year. Edwards never dropped further than 14th in the standings but needed a pair of top-five runs in two of the four races leading up to the Chase to secure his spot. Edwards is still learning his way on the Cup circuit. He will one day contend for a championship, just not in '06. Josh Pate Matt Kenseth: As late as August last year, Kenseth was sitting 16th in the points because of early-season problems but slipped into the Chase. Same path, different result. Kurt Busch: Every Rusty Wallace fan is going to expect the No. 2 to be up front, but despite the fallout with former owner Jack Roush, this is the first time Busch has driven for someone other than Roush since driving in the Southwest Touring Series in 1999. Rookies: As many as eight rookies are set to run the Cup Series full time, and Paul Menard will run on a limited basis. Everyone has their eyes on this crop that dominated the Busch Series -- but this isn't the Busch Series. These guys may have had phenomenal Busch stats, but their Cup starts to date are watered-down, save for Denny Hamlin. Looking at the group's DNFs and average finish proves that throwing a good Busch driver into a decent Cup ride doesn't equate to immediate success. Mark Spoor Jeremy Mayfield: It takes way too much consistency -- and luck -- to make the Chase with just seven top-10 finishes, as Mayfield did last season. Plus, who's your crew chief, again? Kasey Kahne: In the 47 races since he finished second at Fontana in Sept. 2004, Kahne's average finish is 21.1. Plus, who's your crew chief, again? Dale Earnhardt Jr.: In the 10 races the No. 8 team has run since Tony Eury Jr. returned atop the pit box, its average finish is a dismal 24.1 -- with three DNFs. The offseason didn't appear to bring any solace, either. During the three-day test session last month at Daytona -- where he usually dominates -- Junior clocked in 11th on the cumulative single-car sheet behind such household names as Jeff Fuller and Mike McLaughlin. Ryan Smithson Richard Childress Racing: This three-car outfit is miles away from Gibbs, Hendrick and Roush. They are effectively a mid-range team, and it will only get worse if Kevin Harvick becomes a lame-duck driver. Jimmie Johnson: Every single great driver -- Jeff Gordon and Tony Stewart included -- has been subject to off years. Johnson will still make the Chase, but it is hard to bet against Roush right now. Dale Earnhardt Jr.: DEI's situation is a lot like RCR's. They are a very good team with talented drivers that simply don't have the numbers to keep up with Roush and Hendrick right now. A lot of people are predicting Earnhardt Jr. to finish in the top five in points this year, but that said that last year, too. Most alarming, the team has lost its restrictor-plate edge, and with it, a chance to win four races per year. Marty Smith Jeremy Mayfield: Nicest guy in the world, the type you love to see succeed, but this year the field is just too deep. He'll miss the Chase for the first time. Kevin Harvick: Richard Childress Racing will be more consistent, but is still playing catch-up. Dale Jarrett: Shawn Parker, Jimmy Elledge, Brad Parrott, Garth Finley, Mike Ford, Billy Wilburn ... DJ is still working to find solid chemistry with a crew chief. Slugger Labbe is the seventh man -- eighth, if you count Todd Parrott, Round II, late last year -- to lead the No. 88 Ford since Parrott first left in 2001. Mark Aumann Elliott Sadler: He looked to be a lock for a return to the Chase after Sonoma, but never cracked the top 10 again until Dover. Going from the pole to 32nd at Indianapolis may have taken the fight out of the team -- and they'll need to rebuild their confidence early in 2006 to make another run at it. Mark Martin: He gave it all he had last year for the team in what should have been his swan song. Instead, he's back in the Cup car for another go-round as a favor to Jack Roush because Martin is the consummate pro, but it's hard to say if his heart is really in it. Jimmie Johnson: I have absolutely no justification for putting him here, except three things keep nagging me: • Sooner or later, every team experiences a down season, especially after the incredible emotional toll expended by this team since Martinsville in 2004. • Maybe it was just the frustration of coming up short again, but there was a weird aura hanging over this team after Homestead. Maybe everything's patched up. Maybe not. This team can't afford to flunk chemistry. • Who would have bet money at this time last year that Jeff Gordon would miss the Chase? Or Dale Earnhardt Jr.? The opinions expressed are solely of the writers. | 
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