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Greg Biffle
Greg Biffle was positively bubbly in Victory Lane on Saturday night. Credit: Autostock

Cross' Words: Darlington

Front-runners continue to separate from the rest of the pack

By B. Duane Cross, NASCAR.COM
May 19, 2006
10:40 AM EDT (14:40 GMT)

Who would've thought exiting Darlington that only 10 drivers would be mathematically in the Race for the Chase? The time to panic is right ... now!

It's not like these front-runners are going to suddenly forget how to drive. That means the ones who are fighting to get into the top 10 -- or within 400 points -- have their work cut out for them as we speed toward Richmond, where the Chase field will be determined on Sept. 9.

Dodge Charger 500
Unofficial Results
Pos. Driver Make
1. Greg Biffle Ford
2. Jeff Gordon Chevy
3. Matt Kenseth Ford
4. Jimmie Johnson Chevy
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. Chevy
• Complete results, click here
• Unofficial standings, click here
NEXTEL TrackPass

When the new points system was announced before the 2004 season, it was widely criticized -- loudly among the fandom and in hushed tones within the garages. Then Jimmie Johnson won four of the 10 Chase races only to fall eight points shy of Kurt Busch (who won only once in the playoffs) for the inaugural Nextel Cup.

And the points system was chastised unmercifully.

Last year, Tony Stewart dominated the summertime, winning five times in a seven-race stretch between Sonoma and Watkins Glen. He led the point standings entering Loudon, the first race of the Chase, and though he did not take the checkered flag in any of the final 10 races, he was the points leader -- and Cup champion -- exiting Homestead.

And the points system took a good ribbing, but not nearly as much as did Smoke's waist line.

This season, after 11 races we have a 391-point bulge between first place and 10th, the last eligible spot in the Chase. Casey Mears is 11th, 406 points behind, but he's falling faster than Ward Burton can say "CAT skid steer loader."

And the points system is setting itself up to bear the brunt of calls for change: points for qualifying, more points for winning, yada, yada, yada. Here's a novel concept: Why not give credit to the best collection of top-tier talent that Cup racing has ever seen, and accept the fact that these seasons are going to happen. Call it the exception to the rule.

How dominant have this year's top 10 drivers been? They have combined for nine wins (82 percent), 40 top-five finishes (73 percent) and 61 top-10s (55 percent).

Inside the Numbers
On-track domination by the
top 10 drivers in points
  Top 10 Other 45
Wins 9 2
Top-5s 40 15
Top-10s 61 49

To put these numbers into perspective, check out the chart at the right:

Johnson has accumulated 1,686 points in 11 races, the eighth-highest total in the past 20 years. The last time a driver had more points at this junction in the season was 1997, when Terry Labonte had 1,691; he finished sixth in the final standings.

In the past 20 years, only seven times has the points leader after 11 races gone on to win that season's Cup championship. The most recent was Matt Kenseth in 2003. The average finish of the points leader after 11 races in the past two decades: 2.88 (not counting Sterling Marlin (2002) and Ernie Irvan (1994); both were sidelined by injuries).

For drivers languishing at the bottom of the top 10 -- or just outside the 400-point barrier -- the good news is that if they can endure the next 15 races and make the Chase field, they will be no more than 50 points behind the leader entering Loudon on Sept. 17.

The bad news is that for the overwhelming majority of teams, after almost one-third of this season, next year is right now. Somehow, I don't believe this is the scenario anyone was hoping for when the Chase was conceived, and it's just what naysayers have been licking their chops over for the past two years.

Cue the uproar.

Race to the Chase
Eligible drivers through 11 races in 2006
Pos. Driver Points Behind
1. Jimmie Johnson 1,686  
2. Tony Stewart 1,593 -93
3. Matt Kenseth 1,592 -94
4. Mark Martin 1,487 -199
5. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1,460 -226
6. Jeff Gordon 1,391 -295
7. Kyle Busch 1,388 -298
8. Kasey Kahne 1,379 -307
9. Kevin Harvick 1,365 -321
10. Jeff Burton 1,295 -391
Eligible drivers through 11 races in 2005
Pos. Driver Points Behind
1. Jimmie Johnson 1,562  
2. Greg Biffle 1,521 -41
3. Jeff Gordon 1,438 -124
4. Elliott Sadler 1,413 -149
5. Kurt Busch 1,407 -155
6. Tony Stewart 1,397 -165
7. Ryan Newman 1,370 -192
8. Kevin Harvick 1,364 -198
9. Jamie McMurray 1,351 -211
10. Mark Martin 1,344 -218
11. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1,333 -229
12. Rusty Wallace 1,290 -272
13. Carl Edwards 1,289 -273
14. Dale Jarrett 1,264 -298
15. Kasey Kahne 1,261 -301
16. Jeremy Mayfield 1,257 -305
17. Michael Waltrip 1,235 -327
18. Jeff Burton 1,228 -334
19. Sterling Marlin 1,168 -394
Eligible drivers through 11 races in 2004
Pos. Driver Points Behind
1. Dale Earnhardt Jr. 1,643  
2. Jimmie Johnson 1,603 -40
3. Jeff Gordon 1,581 -62
4. Matt Kenseth 1,517 -126
5. Tony Stewart 1,449 -194
6. Ryan Newman 1,442 -201
7. Bobby Labonte 1,430 -213
8. Kevin Harvick 1,404 -239
9. Kurt Busch 1,391 -252
10. Elliott Sadler 1,377 -266
11. Kasey Kahne 1,288 -355
12. Mark Martin 1,281 -362
13. Jamie McMurray 1,249 -394
14. Rusty Wallace 1,247 -396

Say Anything

"I was praying for help. I was begging. Please let him give me a lane, give me the top or give me the bottom or something."
-- Greg Biffle, who finally led the most laps (170) and won the race, on what he was thinking in the final laps with Jeff Gordon closing in. He also led the most laps at Fontana, Atlanta and Phoenix but failed to finish better than 15th in any of those races.

Figuratively Speaking

29 -- Consecutive races in which Dave Blaney has been running at the finish, the longest active streak. The last time he failed to finish a race: July 10, 2005, at Chicago.

Jeff Burton
Jeff Burton has tallied 708 points in the past five races. Credit: Autostock

Fast Facts

Jeff Burton, who finished ninth at Darlington, has climbed from 21st to 10th in the point standings since Martinsville. He has four top-10 finishes in the past five races.

Carl Edwards' 39th-place finish on Saturday night -- his third DNF of the season -- ended a streak of three consecutive top-10 finishes. He dropped to 17th in the point standings.

• Jimmie Johnson finished fourth at Darlington, his series-best eighth top-10 finish this year. It was his in seventh top-10 in eight races at the Track Too Tough to Tame.

Up Next

All-Star Open / Challenge
7 p.m. ET Saturday on FX

• The Pit Crew Challenge will be held at 7:30 p.m. ET Wednesday at the Charlotte Bobcats Arena. The No. 9 Dodge team won last year's Pit Crew Challenge with a 16.41-seconds stop. Go to www.pitcrewchallenge.com for tickets.

• Train, the Red Hot Chili Peppers and NFL receiver Steve Smith will participate in pre-race festivities for the All-Star Challenge. Pat Monahan, lead singer of Train, will perform the national anthem, while the Red Hot Chili Peppers will serve as grand marshals. Smith, a wide receiver for the Carolina Panthers, will serve as honorary starter by waving the green flag to start the all-star race.

ALSO

Mailbag

Did you happen to catch Michael Waltrip's first pitch at the Florida Marlins-Atlanta Braves game? I thought Kurt Busch's pitch was bad, but Mikey threw it into the Braves' dugout! It was extremely funny. I don't think NASCAR drivers, the great athletes they are, are good at anything but NASCAR (unless you count Jamie McMurray and his amazing hair-care skills).
-- Simon

Mikey contends he was throwing the ball at Chipper Jones, who was minding his own business in the dugout. But the next time Chipper gets pulled over for speeding, he can say he was chasing Waltrip. Of course the cop will know Chipper's lying: 55 is only Mikey's car number; the team hasn't found a way to crack it on the speedometer this year.

Why don't you lay off Michael Waltrip? You couldn't carry his water. What was the last top 10 you had? Probably a tricycle race when you were 4!
-- Al

Actually, I was 6 -- and we ate at Domino's after the race and spent the night in a Best Western. (Dad didn't notice Mikey in the hallway, either; he had shorter hair back then). The next morning, Dad took us to Aaron's Rents and we got a new living room set for only $99! ... And like Mikey, I can't recall which model of car we were driving.

Denny Hamlin
Credit: Autostock
FRIDAY NIGHT LIGHTS
Denny Hamlin didn't horse around at Darlington on Friday night, winning the Diamond Hill Plywood 200 for his second Busch Series victory of the year. 
•  Complete story, click here

NASCAR should make every Cup driver who competes in the Busch race forfeit their qualifying position and start the Cup race from the rear. They have had so much more track time than the drivers who are just there to run Cup. That would help clear out the Cup regulars from the Busch field.
-- Dean

Did you hear? Denny Hamlin won the Busch race! That's 12 in a row for the Buschwhackers (15 consecutive dating to last year) and 23 in the past 24 Busch races.

With Toyota looking for drivers, why haven't they tried to get Ward Burton? Has everyone for gotten about him?
-- Nate

Who?

I know you will answer this honestly: Have you ever seen anyone so unlucky as Robby Gordon?
-- Robert

The guy who took Rachel Claxton to my senior prom. He spent more than $300 on the evening and then pulled a Macaulay Culkin: home alone.

Fantasy Perspective

The track at Lowe's Motor Speedway has been repaved, so drivers' history can be tossed out the window. Or can it be?

• The track was paved in 1960.
• The track was repaved in 1973.
• The turns were repaved in 1979.
• The turns were repaved again in 1987.
• The entire track was repaved in 1994.
• The first "levigation" was done prior to the May 2005 race.
• The front straight and more "levigation" in the turns was done after the May 2005 race.
• The latest repaving of the entire track took place this year.

Check back next week for an analysis on how drivers' stats have been affected by previous paving jobs.

Fantasy Racing
NASCAR.COM's Duane Cross takes part in a weekly
fantasy racing segment on 790 The Ball
in High Point, N.C. The season-to-date standings:
Player Points This Week ...
Listener call-in
Mitch Logan
268 M. Kenseth (8), D. Earnhardt Jr. (6), M. Martin (3), J. Burton (2), T. Stewart
NASCAR.COM's
Duane Cross
261 J. Gordon (9), J. Johnson (7), J. Burton (2), C. Edwards, K. Kahne
WFMY TV's
Noel Glasgow
228 J. Gordon (9), J. Johnson (7), R. Newman (5), J. Burton (2), K. Harvick
790 The Ball's
Bill Kimm
208 G. Biffle (15), J. Johnson (7), M. Martin (3), K. Harvick, K. Kahne
790 The Ball's
Drew Davis
199 J. Gordon (9), J. Johnson (7), M. Martin (3), K. Harvick, K. Kahne
Note: Points are awarded on a 10-9-8-etc. scale for first place through 10th. A five-point bonus is added for choosing the race winner. For the first 26, the "experts" can pick one driver only 15 times; the listeners can pick whomever they wish. The last 10 races we reset the points NASCAR style, and in the Chase the "experts" can pick one driver only five times.

And Finally ...

As a continuation of the "Salute to You Tour," the official Mark Martin rap anthem, Start Your Engines, will debut during All-Star weekend. The song was inspired by Martin's awe-inspiring career and love of rap music. (Says so -- right there in the Roush Racing press release.)

Start Your Engines is being promoted in conjunction with Roush Racing's diversity initiative. Round House Multimedia owners Derrick Garrett and Kevin Dent are the executive producers of the song.

In the immortal words of Carl Edwards: Crazy old man ...

We can only wonder if this is the first rap song not to be branded with a parental advisory. ... Word to your mother: ODB and Tupac would be proud. We think.

The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.

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