Dale Earnhardt Jr. has dropped eight spots in the standings the past two weeks. Credit: Autostock

Junior will make Chase, but he's cutting it close

Stewart, still rough on the track, showing Earnhardt characteristics

Dale Earnhardt Jr. told me on Friday at Pocono that he had no more mulligans if he hoped to make the Chase. Fortunately his credit is good because he's already used a mulligan he didn't have.

With back-to-back 43rd-place finishes the Chase is slipping through the grasp of the Bud team.

	Marty Snider
	SOUND OFF •   Give Marty your take

The same reasons I wrote in this article last week that Tony Stewart would make the Chase are unfortunately the same reasons why Junior may not make the Chase in 2006.

I said Tony was running well enough to not only make the Chase but win the championship ... Junior is not. Granted, at Pocono he was wrecked by Dave Blaney but they were barely a top-20 car and they weren't much better at New Hampshire before they lost the engine.

I said that the tracks coming up favored Tony ... for Junior it's a mixed bag. Indianapolis has always baffled Junior and his team (oddly enough they finished 43rd there last year). Considering how they ran this past week at Pocono, it could be a long week in the Hoosier state for the 8 team.

After Indy is Watkins Glen, where duing the last two years Junior has been fast at the road courses but just can't get the results to prove to be a serious road-course contender.

After those two races you couldn't lay out a better schedule for Junior. Michigan (third in June), Bristol (won two years ago), California (should be just as strong as Michigan) and Richmond. What a better racetrack for Junior to have on the docket to clinch a spot in the Chase? After collecting his third Richmond win in May, Junior chalks up "The Action Track" as one of his favorites.

All about patienceStewart and Edwards review their altercation at Pocono Black flagAltercation with Bowyer earns Stewart a black-flag penalty Junior gets spunDale Jr. spins in the straightaway and hits the wall Sign up for TrackPass now BUY THE NEXTEL i836 POCONO HEADLINES •   Edwards, Bowyer furious with Stewart after bump •   Earnhardt Jr., team not stressed over standings

Having said all of that I think Junior will make the Chase. Everybody has been waiting to see who this year's Elliott Sadler might be (the driver who drops from the top five to out of the picture by Richmond) and many think it might be Junior. I don't.

But three things need to fall in place for the 8 team to make the Chase:

• They have to figure out how to be more competitive, especially in the engine department where they lack some serious steam under the hood.

• They need to survive the next two races and not lose significant ground to the top 10.

• And finally the next two races will test their resilience and patience as a team. They have to continue to believe in themselves and their ability to win the championship.

The true identity of this team will surface in the next few weeks. I said two weeks ago Junior has matured into the team leader ... it's time to take charge.

Stewart vs. Stewart

Wally Dallenbach said on TNT on Sunday "the only person that can take Tony Stewart out of the Chase is Tony Stewart."

Wally's exactly correct ... but in my opinion that's what makes Tony Stewart so entertaining to watch. Yeah he probably should take the playoffs into consideration before he puts a bumper to someone, but that's not Tony. And like it or not, Tony Stewart is the closest thing going to Dale Earnhardt.

Tony Stewart speaks his mind ... as did Dale Earnhardt. Credit: Autostock/Getty Images

Unlike the old Tony, his gruff demeanor on the track doesn't stay with him off the track anymore. This past Sunday was a terrific example of that.

After the Carl Edwards/Clint Boyer incidents, the old Tony would have stormed away from his car refusing to talk to anyone, including the guys on his crew, but the new Tony sat and answered every question he was asked from the media ... most of them with the patented Tony Stewart half-smile.

Now when Stewart talks, instead of blowing him off as a hot head, people listen because more often than not he simply says what everybody else in the sport is thinking but they're just afraid to say it. That's good for everybody.

How? In today's politically correct NASCAR world we have to have somebody who is willing to step up and provide a reality check once in a while. It just so happens that person has turned out to be the very person that most media members loathed for so many years.

Tony Stewart has matured into NASCAR's domineering, yet eloquent, spokesman off the track but he still doesn't take any grief on the track.

Sure sounds like Earnhardt to me.

Marty Snider is a pit reporter for NBC and TNT. The opinions expressed are solely of the writer.