Fantasy Preview: Vegas

Las Vegas Motor Speedway has undergone a major renovation since last year. In fact, the only thing remaining of the old facility is one building in the infield, which makes teams' notebooks useless. It is only fitting that this weekend will be a gamble for the race teams in a city that made its fortune with that particular vice.

Nextel Cup drivers were faced with a similar dilemma in 2003 when Homestead-Miami Speedway reconfigured their track for the third time in its brief history. The Florida track started its life as a rectangle, then became a true oval, and finally added progressive banking. The third time was indeed the charm for Homestead, and the competition on that track was immediately among the best in the series.

Las Vegas hopes the same thing will happen this week, as they have also added progressive banking to their double-doglegged oval. Nothing in racing is ever guaranteed, but the smart money is on this new surface doing exactly as planned. The fresh asphalt will make for lightning-quick times, while the progressive banking will ensure that the race doesn't devolve into a single-groove affair.

Strong Starts

Still, this is essentially a brand new track, and drivers who traditionally perform well on new courses should dominate your roster. Regardless of their record at Vegas, Jeff Gordon, Tony Stewart, and Kevin Harvick get a special mention because of their records in inaugural races.

Since New Hampshire was added to the schedule in Gordon's rookie season of 1993, he's always brought his "A" game to the new tracks, where everyone is equal. He finished seventh in that first race at Loudon and won the inaugural Brickyard 400 the following year. He has also recorded victories at California Speedway in 1997 and Kansas Speedway in 2001 when those tracks first hosted a Cup event. When Homestead was reconfigured in 2003, he finished fifth.

Stewart won the inaugural race at Homestead in 1999 when it was a flat replica of Indianapolis Motor Speedway, and he also finished in the top 10 when the track added progressive banking in 2003. Tack on another top 10 in Kansas' first race, and he has one of the best records on new tracks among active competitors.

Harvick won the first race held at Chicagoland Speedway in 2001 and nearly duplicated that feat in 2003 when Homestead was reconfigured. He finished second to Bobby Labonte that day.

The Favorites

While the track is essentially new, the shape is the same as it ever was and fantasy owners looking for a little help in handicapping this race can find some hints in a driver's record on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. The cream will continue to rise to the top, and lately on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways, that means the battle at the front of the pack will be between Matt Kenseth and Jimmie Johnson. These are the only winners the Vegas track has known in the past four years, and chances are good that will continue.

Last year, Johnson narrowly edged Kenseth at the line to win his second consecutive Vegas race. It was the third time in this track's brief history that winners stole back-to-back checkers, with Kenseth recording the feat in 2003 and 2004, while Jeff Burton won in 1999 and 2000. No one has yet won three in a row, but Johnson has last week's momentum from a third-place finish to push him forward. Other than a disappointing Daytona 500, Johnson has finished in the top 10 in his last eight attempts stretching back to the fall race on the similarly-configured Lowe's Motor Speedway, and all but two of those events have ended in first-, second-, or third-place finishes.

Kenseth has a little less momentum on his side overall, but that didn't keep him from dominating the Auto Club 500 at California. He swept both the Busch and Cup races, while never taking his team out of contention. He enters the UAW-Daimler Chrysler 400 without his crew chief Robbie Reiser for the third weekend in a four-race suspension, but that really shouldn't adversely affect him in Vegas, since it didn't in California. The Roush Fenway organization is deep in talent and Kenseth is virtually assured a top-five finish.

Dark Horses

In general, fantasy owners should continue to avoid the Toyota teams for a few more races. This manufacturer is going to face a new challenge every week, and only time will tell how fast they can adjust. Last week, however, Brian Vickers was impressive from the time he unloaded his Red Bull Camry from the hauler. He was fast in practice, qualified well, and raced with the leaders most of the day. If not for some pit stop strategy near the end of the event, he might have earned a top-five result, but he nevertheless gave Toyota their first top-10 finish in only their second race. He still has to qualify on time -- and with a 54-car field, that is no small feat -- so you may not want to gamble on him early in the week.

Another driver who must qualify on time is Joe Nemechek. Bobby Ginn Racing put him in their new entry precisely because of his skill in time trials, and he has rewarded them by making both of the first two races of 2007. He continues to walk a razor's edge on Friday, but that hasn't seemed to affect him on Sunday. In the Daytona 500 he was elevated to ninth in the final fracas and he added another top-15 at California last week. Some of his best results during the last three years have come on the similarly-configured, 1.5- and two-mile tracks, but he continues to fly under the radar screen. That is precisely what fantasy owners want to see.

Underdogs

As strong as he finished last year, it was expected that Scott Riggs would come out of the gates fast in 2007. Unfortunately, he was slapped with a penalty at Daytona for a rules infraction that wasn't covered by the book and the loss of his crew chief contributed to a couple of disappointing runs. He has Rodney Childers back on top of his pit box this week, but cautious fantasy owners may still want to give him a race or two to adjust. More importantly, he needs to prove that he can run with the leaders again.

Likewise, teammate Kasey Kahne seems to have lost some of his dominance on the similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks. At the beginning of 2006, he won three of the first four "cookie-cutter" races and finished fourth here at Vegas. His last five attempts on this type of track, however, resulted in four finishes outside the top 20 and three of these were in the 30s. Last week was another disappointing day for the Evernham team, when the No. 9 retired in 38th after blowing an engine. Luck is unpredictable, but in Vegas, Kahne is just as likely to roll snake-eyes as he is to get a lucky seven.