Fantasy Preview: Atlanta

For all the controversy surrounding the new asphalt and hard tires last week, Las Vegas Motor Speedway still has a lot of its old character. The competition certainly benefited from the higher, progressive banking -- and it is only going to get better with time -- but the track's configuration still keeps it among the intermediates.

There are six similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks with either a single or double dogleg on the frontstretch, and drivers who run well on one typically excel on all of them. Las Vegas remains in the ranks of Atlanta Motor Speedway, Lowe's Motor Speedway, Texas Motor Speedway, Chicagoland Speedway and Kansas Speedway, which gives fantasy owners a deep pool of data to fish.

To a lesser degree, fantasy owners should also consider the 2-mile doglegged tracks of California Speedway and Michigan International Speedway, because the handling and horsepower requirements on these unrestricted, intermediate speedways are similar to the intermediate tracks. Considering that more than one-third of the Nextel Cup schedule is made up of one of the similarly configured, 1.5- and 2-mile tracks, drivers put a lot of focus on going fast on these venues and the teams with the greatest assets tend to rise to the top of the grid. In other words, don't bet your lunch money on dark horses.

A Rich History

Of course, every track is different and grouping them into categories such as intermediates, superspeedways or short tracks is simply a device to expand your view. Certain drivers develop a bond with certain racetracks, and for a time they can do no wrong.

Atlanta is not usually kind to rookie drivers, but there have been some notable exceptions during the past few years. Kevin Harvick won his first Nextel Cup race in only his third start in his rookie season of 2001 and then finished third that fall. However, he's failed to crack the top 15 since.

Carl Edwards, on the other hand, finished third here in his inaugural visit in fall 2004, and then swept Victory Lane the following season. He ran into the No. 22 on pit road during a caution period last spring on Lap 42 and never recovered from the damage. He finished 40th in that race, but was back to his old form in the fall with a seventh-place result.

Finally, there are drivers like Greg Biffle, who have spotty records on the other intermediate courses, but who always seem to rise to the challenge at Atlanta. Biffle has finished outside the top 10 only once in the last three years and has the best average running position during the past two years. His average position per lap in those four races has been 6.2, which keeps him up front and out of trouble.

The Favorites

Favorites are easy to come by this week. In fact, to find the three strongest drivers in the field, the fantasy owner need look no further than last fall's race as the drivers who finished first, second and third top the performance chart as well.

Tony Stewart won here last fall, and that victory was the culmination of an 11-race streak in which he finished outside the top 10 only once. He was 17th back in spring 2005, but otherwise has been perfect enough to garner an average finish of 6.3. In that span of races, Stewart has posted two victories, finished second on another occasion, and has six top-fives.

Jimmie Johnson proved last week that he is still the intermediate king, and his victory on the re-shaped Las Vegas Motor Speedway was his fourth consecutive finish of either first or second on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks. His overall numbers on the intermediate tracks is staggering, with one finish of worse than 16th in his last 33 races. In fact, less than a handful of those races ended with him outside the top 10, and he has earned a remarkable nine victories on this type of track. At Atlanta, Johnson has one victory and three other second- or third-place finishes since fall 2003, and he's amassed an average finish of better than fifth.

Dale Earnhardt Jr. finished third here in the fall, which was his third consecutive top-five finish. He is prone to long streaks on this track, and from fall 2001 through spring 2004 -- a string of six consecutive races -- he never finished worse than seventh. That incredible streak ended with his sole victory on this track in the Golden Corral 500. To finish first, a driver has to remain on the lead lap, and Earnhardt has done that in his last 12 consecutive intermediate races. He needs a good finish to ensure he stays in the top 35 in owner points, and he should have it this weekend. (Continued)