Fantasy Preview: M'ville

Last week, the debut of the Car of Tomorrow was largely successful from a competitive point of view, but fundamentally useless for fantasy owners trying to handicap this week's race. NASCAR runs back-to-back short track races at Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway -- both tracks are half-mile bullrings, and both are considered rhythm tracks. Martinsville, however, marches to a distinctively different cadence than the high-banked, concrete oval just over the state line in Tennessee.

Martinsville is much more similar to the flat, 1-mile speedways of Phoenix International Raceway and New Hampshire International Speedway, and shares some characteristics with road courses as well. To go fast on this track, drivers have to slow down before entering the turn, roll to the center of the apex, and then nail the accelerator to rocket down the next straightaway.

It takes discipline to keep from charging too hard into the corners, and once a driver finds the groove, he often continues to run strong for several races in a row. Dale Jarrett recorded eight consecutive top-10s at Martinsville from 1999 through 2002, but once he lost the feel for this track, he recorded only a single top-10 in the last eight races. Dale Earnhardt Jr. had five consecutive top-fives from 2002 through 2004, and he has also recorded only a single top-10 in his last five races. This week's favorites come from last year's Martinsville magicians, but watch them closely in practice for signs of weakness.

COT Lessons

While the fantasy owner may not have learned much from last week's debut of the COT, rest assured the teams went to school. While the specific setups are not transferable from Bristol to Martinsville, the teams know which types of changes worked best. With a week to study their notes, they will come to Martinsville with a better plan in place.

Slowly, the impact of the COT is going to be felt by the fantasy owner, but a radical dividing line won't exist. This car may yet level the playing field between the high-dollar teams and those that are lightly funded, but the cream will continue to rise to the top. Because of the unknowns surrounding each of the COT races in the first part of the season, it is still prudent to rely on a driver's record on the short and flat tracks in general, and Martinsville specifically when setting the roster for the Goody's Cool Orange 500.

However, the savvy fantasy owner will be taking notes this week, because Phoenix is only a few weeks away, and that will be another short, flat track race with the COT body on the cars. If a driver improves during the second half of the race -- like Jeff Gordon did at Bristol last week -- he should be on your radar screen for the Subway Fresh Fit 500k.

The Favorites

Six of Jeff Gordon's seven Martinsville victories have come in an odd-numbered year, including a sweep of Victory Lane in 2003 after he won the pole in both events and pair of first-place finishes in 2005 after he started midway through the pack on the eighth row. Check the calendar, because 2007 is going to be another good year for the driver of the No. 24.

It's not as if Gordon has struggled in the even-numbered seasons, as he enters the weekend with a four-year, eight-race streak of top-10s. In fact, in 28 career starts on this track, he's logged 16 top-fives, 22 top-10s and has finished worse than 12th only three times. There are too many intangibles to guarantee any driver will win, but Gordon is as close to a sure thing as you will find this week. He also has recent momentum on his side, with a pair or runner-up finishes and a third in his last four attempts.

Last week, Tony Stewart had the best car by a wide margin in the Food City 500. Mechanical difficulties stranded him several laps off the pace, but that only heightens his resolve. A resolute Stewart tends to get results, and the field is in for a long day if he gets his car running as well this week as it did at Bristol.

The No. 20 won this race last year, and enters the weekend with a three-race streak of top-fives at the track. Like Gordon, when he misses the top spots on this bullring, it is not by much, and he has finished on the lead lap and in the top 15 at Martinsville in nine of his last 10 attempts. Stewart has been equally strong on the other short, flat tracks, and he has eight top-10s in his last 10 attempts at Martinsville, Phoenix and New Hampshire. (Continued)