Fantasy Preview: Texas

Two weeks ago drivers did the Martinsville mamba; this week will be a Texas two-step.

Opponents of the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks might not be as critical this week after two weeks of uncertainty on the short tracks. The introduction of the Car of Tomorrow tossed another variable into the mix in what traditionally have been wild-card races, and before these events fantasy owners were left to guess as to which programs had done their homework the best.

The cream always seems to rise to the top, however, and the organizations that dominated the unrestricted, intermediate speedways during the opening weeks of 2007 continued to shine. Hendrick Motorsports and Richard Childress Racing conquered Bristol Motor Speedway and Martinsville Speedway.

Those teams will carry their momentum into Texas Motor Speedway for the Samsung 500, but they will face stiff competition from Roush Fenway Racing and Joe Gibbs Racing -- two other teams which have been strong during the similarly configured, 1.5- and 2-mile races.

12-for-12

A lot will be made this week about how Texas has had 12 different winners in 12 races, and the story is impressive on its face. There is more to it, however, and if history provides any clues as to what fantasy owners can expect this week, Jamie McMurray could be in for a surprise victory.

Skeptics wait.

Not only have there been 12 unique winners in the first 12 races, but three other factors combine to make this dark-horse candidate compelling for the Samsung 500. In only three of the first 12 races had the winning driver finished better than 19th in their most recent Texas attempt. In addition, all but three winning drivers qualified on one of the first four rows. The odds are good that the winner this week is going to be someone who struggled this past fall, but qualifies well on Friday.

McMurray certainly fits the first criteria. He had a miserable 2006 season on nearly every track as he settled into his new Roush ride and Texas was no exception. He was 37th in this race last year and 26th in the fall. He finally seems to be developing some chemistry in the No. 26, however, and enters the weekend with a three-race top-15 streak to his credit.

McMurray has been strong on this type of track in the past, and he won his first Nextel Cup race in his third start at Lowe's Motor Speedway, in October 2002. In fact, he failed to crack the top 15 on one of the "cookie-cutter" tracks only four times in his first 21 starts, which makes him a danger if he rolls off the hauler quickly.

The other side of the story is that of the 12 previous winners, only three of those drivers have backed their victory with another top-10 run. While this might not bode well for Tony Stewart's chances of winning back-to-back races, he has far too much skill and momentum on the similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks to be called a dark horse.

From the 2001 Protection One 400 at Kansas Speedway through the 2005 UAW-DaimlerChrysler 400 at Las Vegas Motor Speedway, Stewart recorded 25 top-10 finishes in 28 races and won three of those outright. He lost a little of his luster in recent years, but came on strong at the end of 2006 and won three of the last four "cookie-cutter" events. The 2007 season has been nearly as kind to him after he finished seventh at Vegas and was the runner-up at Atlanta Motor Speedway.

'Cookie-cutter' kings

Of course the driver who won both of those aforementioned races still has to be the hand's down favorite. Jimmie Johnson is the reigning king of the "cookie-cutter" tracks and he has been practically flawless during his entire career. In 46 previous races on one of the six similarly configured, 1.5-mile tracks -- Atlanta, Lowe's, Texas, Las Vegas, Kansas, and Chicagoland Speedway -- he has won 10 races, finished in the top five 25 times, and in the top 10 on 36 occasions.

Conversely, he has finished worse than 16th only five times, which makes Johnson as close to a sure thing as the fantasy owner will find. If you are wondering what he's done for fantasy owners lately, he's finished second or better in the last five attempts, and last year Johnson had a worst finish of only 14th.

Another driver who has a great shot at becoming the 13th different winner at Texas is Johnson's teammate, Jeff Gordon. This is one of only three tracks on which he's failed to win, and he would love to remove that notation from his personal record book. The first four times he came here Gordon was miserable, finishing 25th or worse.

In 2001, however, he clicked and recorded his first of four consecutive top-fives. In 2002, 2003, and 2004 he finished either second or third and with a little luck might already have one race under his belt. So far in 2007, Gordon has been the bridesmaid by finishing either second or third in four of the past five races. Winning this week would be twice as sweet on this "cookie-cutter" track.

51 Car(d) pick-up

Racing is a zero sum game, and for every driver who finishes in the front of the field, another has to struggle. A total of 51 cars are entered this week at Texas, which makes it one of their largest fields in more than half a decade. This past fall, 50 cars attempted to make the Dickies 500 and some big names went home early.

The same thing is going to happen this weekend, and fantasy owners want to shy away from nearly all of the drivers who currently sit outside the top 35 in owner points. These teams will have to spend all day Friday working on qualifying trim, while the guaranteed starters can work on re-adjusting to the old-style car in race trim. Most of Saturday will be spent exorcising loose setups by the teams that had to qualify on time, and they will be behind schedule before the start of the race.

One driver inside the top 35 in owner points by the skin of his teeth is Casey Mears. By the numbers, he should be a favorite this week since both he and Hendrick Motorsports traditionally have been strong on the unrestricted, intermediate speedways. Like McMurray in 2006, however, he is having a difficult time adjusting to his new ride and until he develops some chemistry, the No. 25 is best left in the garage area.

Mears deserves attention, however, because the similarly configured, 1.5- and 2-mile tracks are where he will first show some strength, and if he finishes in the top 15 this week, he could become a dark horse next month for the Coke 600 at Lowe's.