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Each week the staff at NASCAR.COM will pick a race winner, a dark horse for the checkers and the ain't-got-a-chance driver (no scrubs; someone with a Q score).
Our scoring system: Experts receive as many points as the "winner" pick gets in the race.
| Writer | Winner | Here's why ... | Dark Horse | No Chance | Points |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joe Menzer | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | Time to turn up the heat in the contract negotiations with DEI, and what better way to do it than to win a race? He's done it once before here and his average Texas finish is a very respectable 10.2. | Kasey Kahne | Kurt Busch | 805 |
| Duane Cross | Jeff Burton | He won the inaugural Cup race at Texas -- and he'll be the first driver to win twice at the track. Burton has been consistent this year and now that persistence pays off with a victory. | Clint Bowyer | Jeff Gordon | 795 |
| Dave Rodman | Tony Stewart | Tony Stewart will win Texas because he's won here recently, is using a car he's had great success with and is hard to bet against on any intermediate speedway. | Juan Montoya | Ryan Newman | 793 |
| Raygan Swan | Denny Hamlin | Denny Hamlin will win the Samsung 500 because he has three starts here and has finished in the top 10 in all. Plus, he's run up front a lot so far this season and seems hungry. Not running as much in the Busch series has given him more time to focus on the Cup side. | David Stremme | Kasey Kahne | 747 |
| Bill Kimm | Dale Earnhardt Jr. | The time is now for the No. 8 Chevorlet. Junior performs well at Texas, with seven top-10s in nine races. Plus, over the last month, Junior has improved each week. Look for the No. 8 to be the first repeat winner in the Lone Star State. | Jamie McMurray | Jimmie Johnson | 742 |
| David Caraviello | Denny Hamlin | How much longer can Joe Gibbs Racing go without winning? The bet here is, not much longer. Hamlin's never won at Texas, but in three career Nextel Cup starts there his average finish is a stout 7.0. His best finish was fourth, in this event last year. But for a part failure at Bristol and a pit mistake at Martinsville, the kid could be going for three in a row. | Casey Mears | Kyle Busch | 740 |
| Josh Pate | Jimmie Johnson | Seriously, why should any other driver be picked? Until Jimmie Johnson loses, which he has but not by much, there's no reason to go against by far the best team in NASCAR. | Clint Bowyer | Kyle Busch | 711 |
| Jarrod Breeze | Greg Biffle | The Roush team is ready to take back the track after watching the Chevrolets have their way in recent weeks. Biffle, the 2006 version of this year's Kasey Kahne, is due. If he can finish at Texas, three DNFs in six starts, he has as good a chance as any at winning, especially since he usually qualifies well there. | Jamie McMurray | Kasey Kahne | 698 |
| Mark Aumann | Clint Bowyer | Clint Bowyer's been knocking on the door all season long, with three top-10s. He led at California, Las Vegas and Atlanta, tracks similar to Texas -- and posted a fifth at Texas last fall. He's due. | Casey Mears | Jeff Gordon | 670 |